2014 PERFORMANCE

The Packers were 9th in football with 277.9 yards passing a game.
The Packers threw for 38 touchdowns, third most in the NFL.
The Packers completed 65.1 percent of their passes, 9th in the NFL.
The Packers scored 30.4 points a game last season, tops in the NFL.

COACHING

Mike McCarthy is back for a 10th season behind the bench for the Packers. Things will be a little different this year though as he will give up offensive play calling duties to Tom Clements who has been named the Offensive Coordinator and Associate Head Coach. "I felt that the play calling was something that I could still be able to do," said McCarthy, "but the commitment you have to make Monday through Saturday, I didn't think it fit, I didn't think it would work as good as I know it will work now with Tom who's basically taking the responsibilities on offense that I've had in the past." The offense doesn’t figure to change much despite the change, and if issues come up you would have to think that McCarthy could move back to calling plays at some point in-season.

LOSSES

Ricky Collins (NA)

Adrian Coxson (NA)

Kevin Dorsey (NA)

Jordy Nelson (98 receptions, 1,519 yards, 13 TDs)

GAINS

Javess Blue (undrafted out of Kentucky)

Ty Montgomery (3rd round selection in 2015)

Ed Williams (undrafted out of Toledo)

OUTLOOK

One of the reasons the Packers passing numbers listed above weren’t as good as you expected was because they were so efficient they really didn’t need to run that many plays. In fact the club attempted 33.5 passes a game, just 20th in the NFL. One of the main reasons is that the Rodgers to Nelson duo was able to rip off huge chunks of yardage on a mere handful of plays. Who will step up and try to fill that void in 2015 now that we’ve been made aware that Jordy Nelson is indeed out for the season after injuring his ACL in a non-contact injury? First we’ll talk about the lock before delving into the contenders.

Randall Cobb had his second effort in three years of at least 80 receptions, 950 yards and eight scores, and he was appreciably better than that in 2015 (91-1,287-12). Cobb is 5’10” and weighs 192 lbs. He’s a slot monster and should be the same guy yet against in 2015. Can his numbers improve this season? It’s possible with a few more targets, but it’s pretty tough to envision him taking any kind of jump forward, even with Nelson out. A strong, Low level WR1 in PPR setups.

Now the contenders…

Davante Adams is the universal choice to step up into the WR2 spot in the offense. Standing 6’1” and weighing 215 lbs, he’s a strong athlete who starred as a basketball player in high school. He uses strong hands to catch the ball, can leap out of the stadium, and knows how to high point the ball on contested throws. The negative is that he’s a bit of a long strider who lacks a bit of the short area burst of the elite wideouts. He’s also not an elite speed burner by any means, but in this offense a season of 75 catches and 1,000 yards is attainable.

Ty Montgomery was running as the #3 wideout with the Packers offense Tuesday at practice, and there is a growing swell of support for him to land that spot in the pecking order for the Packers. Coming out of Stanford, Montgomery stands about six feet tall and weighs nearly 220 lbs. He’s all muscle, and isn’t afraid to lend his frame to lay the pads on a defender in the blocking game. He’s a beast physically. He might lack some polish in his route running and his catch radius isn’t exactly large, while his hands aren’t a lock to keep him in the lineup as a significant target if he struggles to secure passes.

Jeff Janis is the best direct replacement for Nelson. He’s 6’3”, weighs 220 lbs and possesses the speed to stretch the field. He can leap, explosively actually, and can accelerate out of breaks very well for a player of his size. He tore it up in college against second level competition as he attended Saginaw Valley State. Yeah, that’s really a school. On the downside he has small hands and even when the ball is on target he doesn’t always secure it (he often catches the ball against his body and not in his hands). He doesn’t high point the ball well, despite his physical talents, and it seems like he can be confused by d-backs who play him physically.

CONCLUSION

Cobb is a WR1. Period.

Adams will get the first shot to take over the WR2 duties and has a chance to have a significant season in the fantasy game. That means Adams has the talent/opportunity to be a top-25 wideout in PPR setups. Should you draft him as your WR2? You could if you’re filling up at other spots. Still, the smart move would be to roster him as your WR3.

Montgomery is the more ready receiver between he and Janis. Flipside, Janis is the more natural replacement for Nelson as a field stretching talent. While most in the fantasy game would prefer to see Janie win the third spot, it seems like Montgomery will get the chance to grab the job initially. The reason being that Janis still struggles with drops, has been very inconsistent, and doesn’t seem to currently have the trust of the coaching staff. You could argue that Janis would be the better non-PPR option with Montgomery the better PPR threat, but the truth is that unless Cobb/Adams gets hurt, or Adams just falls on his face, the Montgomery/Janis duo could be frustrating dart throw on a weekly basis.

One final note, despite this high powered offense run by the incomparable Aaron Rodgers, realize that only two wideouts last season had 40 receptions and 450 yards as the third wideout, Davante Adams, caught 38 passes for 446 yards. It’s not a lock that this offense will consistently support the same three wideouts week-after-week.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 8 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).