2014 PERFORMANCE
595 Attempts (12th in the NFL)
394 Completions (7th in the NFL)
66.2 Completion Percentage (5th in the NFL)
3729 Yards (17th in the NFL)
6.8 Yards Attempt (26th in the NFL)
27 Touchdown Passes (12th in the NFL)
12 Interceptions (21st in the NFL)
COACHING
HC Joe Philbin returns for his 4th season with the Dolphins while OC Bill Lazor is back for his second season. Lazor pushed the offense to run plays, quick style, leading to Ryan Tannehill being on the field for 1,065 snaps, the 8th highest mark in the NFL. The offense is quick hitting west coast style-ish to take advantage of the skills of Tannehill who continues to grow in his understanding of an NFL offense despite the fact that he struggles to complete anything over 20-yards in the air (more on that below). The club also isn’t against running the read-option to allow Tannehill to keep defenses honest with his athleticism (he ran for 311 yards last season).
LOSSES
Brandon Gibson (29 receptions, 295 yards, 1 TD)
Brian Hartline (39-474-2)
Mike Wallace (67-862-10)
GAINS
Greg Jennings (59-742-6 with Vikings)
DaVante Parker
Kenny Stills (63-931-3 with Saints)
OUTLOOK
Let’s take a look at the options in alphabetical order.
Greg Jennings is the veteran of the group. Signed to a 2-year, $8 million deal, the Dolphins hope that the 31 year old veteran will help to stabilize their group. His signing actually ends up being a shrewd move if Parker’s foot injury keeps him out of action for long. The health of Parker, and connection of Stills with Tannehill and his deep ball, could mean that Jennings ends up as the #2, #3 or #4 wideout with the club. His role with the club is totally uncertain. Ideally the team would probably like to run Parker, Stills and Landry in 3-wideout sets with Jennings backing up all three spots. It’s worth point out that 67 percent of the routes that Jennings ran last season were out of the slow, and the next guy on this list has that spot on lockdown.
Jarvis Landry, a second round pick out of LSU, went out and caught 84 of his 112 targets for 758 yards and five scores as a rookie in a solid PPR performance. At the same time he stands just 5’11”, isn’t a red zone threat and he averaged a mere 9.0 yards per catch last season (his long catch was a mere 25 yards and he only caught five passes that went for 19 yards). Landry has been working on his speed after running the 40-yard dash from 4.6 to 4.77 seconds coming out of school, and while he may drop that number a but the bottom line is that, while quick, he simply doesn’t have the wheels to get behind a defense. Landry might see a bit of work on the outside but he should play the overwhelming majority, likely 90 percent type of stuff, out of the slot. A run to 100-receptions is possible, but without exciting yardage and touchdown marks.
Rishard Matthews has seen more work than expected early on but it would be a shock if he didn’t end up 5th in the pecking order out wide which is why Matthew pushed for a trade this offseason. There’s nothing to see here unless injuries linger for the Dolphins’ wideouts.
DaVante Parker is 6’3”, 215 lbs of talent. Taken 14th overall this season, he ran a 4.45 forty, has a 36.5 vertical jump, and has pulled off a 10 foot 5 inch broad jump. He did struggle a bit with press coverage in college, and may likely be best suited to be a second wideout, but there is no disputing that he has talent and that the Fish have big plans for him. Alas, he had foot surgery in early June to replace a screw that was previously inserted in the foot during his senior season at Louisville. Despite what we saw last year with Odell Beckham Jr., rookie wideouts that miss practice time, camp and preseason work often have a devilish of a time getting up to speed in their rookie season (at least until later in the campaign). The team still things there is a good chance that Parker will play in Week 1 even though he just started to jog August 17th (the team thinks he should be able to practice by the start of September). As it currently stands, Parker will likely be over drafted.
Kenny Stills has been dealing with a calf injury since June but he returned to practice on August 17th. A field stretching talent in the DeSean Jackson mold, Stills is only 23 years old and coming off a 63 catch, 931 yard season last year when he filled a supporting role for most of the season with the Saints. Moreover, through two seasons Stills has caught 95 passes at an average of 16.5 yards. His ability to get behind a defense, and to stretch the field, is not in question. However, the ability of his quarterback to get him the football is. Tannehill, rather embarrassingly, completed a mere nine of 42 passes that were in the air for at least 21 yards last season. Shockingly putrid really. Will Tannehill’s inability to stretch the field doom/frustrate Stills as it did Mike Wallace last season?
CONCLUSION
Tannehill appears ready to take the next step in 2015. He’s talented, athletic, and finally seems completely comfortable in the offense. It’s still debatable if he will be able to stretch the field and that is a negative for Stills. Parker has his own worries due to health and missed practice time. Jennings is respected and has an impressive career, but he’s 31 and more of a chain mover at this point. Landry should be PPR gold this season though his upside might be Julian Edelman stuff, nothing more. Not that there is anything wrong with that.
Landry is the safest selection.
Parker has the highest upside long-term.
Stills might be the most dynamic.
Jennings is stable.
Matthews… just a guy.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 8 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).