Fantasy Football Target Stats Analysis: NFL Week 13

So here we are in Week 14. If you’re reading this, it means you’re either in the fantasy football playoffs or on the bubble and need a win to get in. Obviously, it’s a crucial time and every target, every catch and every yard is of the utmost importance. It also means that over-thinking match-ups and getting cute with speculative D-level receivers is a huge no-no. Don’t believe me? Ask each and every chump who put his/her playoff life on the line with the likes of Marquess Wilson or Dorial Green-Beckham.

I’m not saying you can’t take some risks or find value in the lower tiers of receivers, but when you start elevating the value of some of these guys based on bad information, not only will they fail to achieve your expectations, but you’re also putting your entire match-up at risk. Sure, Wilson saw 11 targets in Week 12, but that was because Matt Barkley was chucking the ball all over the place with the game well in-hand for the Titans. You can’t tell me that a guy who failed to see a single snap for the first nine games and saw his biggest action in garbage time with a third-string quarterback is someone in whom you want to invest your playoff life.

Now, Green-Beckham’s role has certainly changed with Nelson Agholor falling out of favor, but let’s also remember that, not only was Jordan Matthews hurting coming into this game, it’s still Carson Wentz throwing the ball. Over his last eight, Wentz is averaging just 237 passing yards per game and has just five touchdowns to 10 interceptions over that span. While Green-Beckham saw 10 targets, he caught just four passes and I certainly cannot say that all six he missed were even catchable. So not only do we have a quarterback issue, but we’re also talking about a guy who has done nothing but disappoint through his first two seasons as a professional. Again, you want to throw your playoff eggs into this basket?

It’s just a matter of doing a little bit of extra research. If you’re looking to the waiver wire and you see a guy had a nice game the previous week, investigate that game further. Don’t just trust the box score. Maybe you can get away with that in fantasy baseball, but there’s so much more behind the stats in football. So much more. Why did he see an uptick in snaps or targets? What was the game flow like? What was the defensive coverage on him? Don’t just assume that because he did well one week, he’s on some upward trajectory.

Sure, there are some waiver guys who are worth the roster spot and potential start. Malcolm Mitchell is the perfect example. Not only has he seen an uptick in snaps and targets, but he’s also received glowing endorsements from both his coach and his quarterback. Maybe Carson Wentz has endorsed Green-Beckham, but I’ll take Tom Brady gushing over Mitchell’s work ethic first every time. He’s more likely to emerge as another Tyrell Williams, Rishard Matthews or Davante Adams while Green-Beckham and Wilson can be filed away with the likes of Cam Meredith, Jeremy Kerley and Brian Quick.

Just do your due diligence, is all I’m saying. A cursory glance at the box scores or blindly trusting your league’s web site projections is a sure-fire way to lose. And while you’d like to think asking 10 experts on Twitter who you should start this week is helpful, you’re likely to get several different answers which will only confuse you more and cause a whole lot of second-guessing. Do your work first. Then ask. Lazy fantasy owners don’t win championships.

Now let’s take a look at the targets from Week 13.

Week 13 Target Leaders

A nod to Odell Beckham as the targets leader for the week and while he was unable to find his way into the end zone, he still cracked the century mark in receiving yards and earned his keep on your starting roster. The match-up with Pittsburgh was obviously a favorable one and he remains a must-start, week in and week out. He’ll face Dallas this week, a team that ranks 27^th in the league against the pass and has allowed the third-most passing yards in the league. They’ve also coughed up 20 touchdowns through the air. With Morris Claiborne still out and Orlando Scandrick and Brandon Carr struggling on the outside, Beckham should feast this week.

Zach Ertz has now seen double-digit targets in two of his last three games and has a touchdown in both. Overall, the numbers have been disappointing this season, but given the state of the Eagles receiving corps, it’s probably safe to assume that Wentz is going to force-feed him over the rest of the season. Yes, what I said about Wentz still applies, but rookie quarterbacks tend to lean on short passes to their tight ends when things get rough. I’ve never been a big fan, but with the Redskins ranking 28^th in the league against the tight end, he looks like a solid play this week.

If you actually sat through the entire Monday night game, then you have the proper insight into Robbie Anderson’s targets and stat line. As we always...and yes, I do mean always…see, when a back-up quarterback is thrust into game action, he leans on those with whom he is most comfortable. Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa are the top two receivers for the Jets, but in practice, Petty is throwing to Anderson regularly and the two have grown to understand each other’s tendencies. The multiple shots downfield until they finally connected for a touchdown were also a dead giveaway. However, before you start grabbing Anderson off the waiver wire, keep in mind that Petty has been named the starter for the rest of the season and will be spending his practice time with Marshall and Enunwa now. That’s not to say he won’t look for his former practice mates during the game, but 12 targets just ain’t happening again.

If you’re in search of tight end help and are deciding between Ladarius Green and Dennis Pitta, I’m more partial to Green. Ben Roethlisberger loves to utilize his tight end and the Steelers are a more high-octane, fast-paced offense than the Ravens. He should consistently see a strong number of targets each week and has some real tasty match-ups over the next two weeks. Pitta can definitely be considered an option, but usually when the match-up is soft enough to warrant the red zone looks. Despite New England’s usually porous pass defense, they get a lot tougher when inside the red zone. The rest of the Ravens schedule also isn’t as promising for tight ends.

Click Next to get to the Overall Targets Leaderboard and additional analysis ---->

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Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

It hasn’t been discussed much – probably because Blake Bortles is a complete disaster this season – but Allen Hurns is starting to really fall off the map. Marqise Lee is sitting with a 16.3-percent target rate to just 15.8 for Hurns and while the difference isn’t all that big right now, consider the fact that Lee wasn’t even on the leaderboard for the first five weeks of the regular season. Hurns and his dismal 46.1-percent catch rate have fallen to the third and sometimes even fourth look for Bortles, depending on the health of Julius Thomas. Lee usually does most of his damage when lined up in the slot, so if he has a favorable match-up, he may be worth a flier in deeper leagues or even DFS play. This week against Minnesota is not one of those match-ups.

James White is another who whose target percentage has climbed slightly and remains very much in play, depending on the match-ups. The assumption by many was that Dion Lewis would return and push White further down the depth chart, but that has not even remotely been the case. Lewis continues to be limited while he is still trying to work himself back from the knee injury and probably won’t do more than maybe match White in targets depending on who the Patriots are playing as well as the game flow. It’s not like White has done anything to deserve a spot on the bench.

Red Zone Target Leaders

Jordy Nelson continues to separate himself from the rest of the field with regard to red zone targets. He leads the league with 25 right now and it’s obviously paying strong dividends to his owners. Over the last nine games, he’s seen 17 red zone targets and has six touchdowns. He may not be posting the yards many have grown to expect from years past, and those days just may be long gone, but so long as he routinely finds the end zone, he’ll be a major fantasy asset.

While Jamison Crowder has only averaged one red zone target per game over his last five, he still finds a way to get into the end zone. He’s got four touchdowns in that span and now has seven on the year. With Jordan Reed still out due to injury, Crowder should continue to see a steady diet of targets inside the 20-yard line. He’s been breaking some touchdown catches for longer than that in recent weeks, but don’t think that changes anything for Kirk Cousins when they get into the red zone.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 14 Game to Watch

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

There are a number of games sitting with over-under lines at 47 and above this week, but this game is catching my eye right now. Andrew Luck has plenty of weapons to utilize, so while the Texans corners have been decent throughout the season, the whole defense has softened up to the point where both Dwayne Allen and Jack Doyle can get involved alongside T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief. For the Texans, yes, Brock Osweiler is a disaster, but so is the Colts’ secondary. DeAndre Hopkins finally tasted the end zone last week and he’ll be hankering for a whole lot more. Will Fuller should serve as a nice complement and the two tight ends, C.J. Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin, should also see some action.