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In the ½-point PPR format, we have to look for the running backs with pass-catching ability and the wide receivers who have touchdown upside. The latter can be trickier, but this week there are some strong values and trends that allow us to target touchdowns in an efficient way. Will vultures appear in Week 11? Of course, but that doesn’t mean we can’t use sound analysis to put ourselves closer to the goal line in hopes of some wide receiver touchdowns!
Here are the top 20 salaried WR’s on FanDuel ranked with RPVPD for Sunday’s Main Contest:
Player | FPPG | Raw RPV | Salary | Pts per $ | RPV Per Dollar |
17.8 | 0.320 | 8000 | $449 | 0.183 | |
14.8 | 0.098 | 7000 | $473 | 0.140 | |
14.3 | 0.061 | 6800 | $476 | 0.135 | |
17 | 0.261 | 8200 | $482 | 0.123 | |
17.8 | 0.320 | 8900 | $500 | 0.091 | |
13.1 | -0.028 | 6700 | $511 | 0.070 | |
13.1 | 13.000 | 6800 | $519 | 0.056 | |
14.9 | 0.105 | 7800 | $523 | 0.048 | |
Marvin Jones Jr. | 12.1 | -0.102 | 6500 | $537 | 0.023 |
14.3 | 0.061 | 7900 | $552 | -0.005 | |
13.5 | 0.001 | 7600 | $563 | -0.024 | |
11.3 | -0.162 | 6400 | $566 | -0.030 | |
11.9 | -0.117 | 6800 | $571 | -0.039 | |
Terrelle Pryor Sr. | 12.4 | -0.080 | 7200 | $581 | -0.056 |
Odell Beckham Jr. | 15.4 | 0.142 | 9000 | $584 | -0.063 |
12.3 | -0.088 | 7300 | $593 | -0.079 | |
10.9 | -0.191 | 6500 | $596 | -0.084 | |
11.2 | -0.169 | 6900 | $616 | -0.120 | |
11.5 | -0.147 | 7400 | $643 | -0.170 | |
10 | -0.258 | 6600 | $660 | -0.200 |
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The most cost effective WR on FanDuel this week is Mike Evans. The Chiefs are a solid defense, but the secondary tends to be aggressive which leads to mistakes. Evans is coming off of a down week, but he’s been a touchdown machine all year. Stefon Diggs has been a target monster in the new Vikings offense, catching 13 balls in back to back games. Ownership will decrease on him this week with news of Patrick Peterson covering him. Add that to that lack of touchdown upside in a ½-point PPR scoring, and avoiding Diggs may be wise indeed. Larry Fitzgerald has been a bit boom or bust lately. The Vikings secondary and some nagging leg injuries may give you pause despite the return on investment potential.
In cash games, Antonio Brown will be heavily owned but he should still come close to the 3x value necessary to be worth his salary. Eli Rogers is a great alternative if you’re looking for shares of the Steelers versus the Browns and don’t want to pay up for Brown. Tyreek Hill will also be a hot trend after his Week 10 showing and with Jeremy Maclin likely out again. Doug Baldwin looks like the best lock for a touchdown this week at home with a streaking Russell Wilson. The Eagles defense has their moments, but that building is going to put big time pressure on them. Jordy Nelson may be lacking the breakaway performances we were once accustomed to, but he leads the league in red zone targets with 22 over 10 weeks. Nelson should once again be a major factor there in Washington this Sunday night.
Dez Bryant has started to find a groove with Dak Prescott and is certainly seeing targets. However, the pricing and matchup against the Ravens makes him a trap this week. Randall Cobb has fallen behind Davante Adams in the Packers’ attack and he should be avoided. Although Jarvis Landry in theory makes sense against an aggressive Rams’ front line (screens and short passing being a sensible attack), he lacks touchdown upside and has been almost an afterthought of late in the Dolphins offense. You can also dismiss Kenny Britt now that Jared Goff brings an unknown factor to the Rams offense.
BLACK BOOK LINEUP WEEK 11
QB Russell Wilson SEA $7.4K
A healthy Russell Wilson at home at that price is a huge discount. He’s put up back to back 26 point performances. He’s an easy 3x value potentially.
RB Le’Veon Bell PIT $9.1K, DeMarco Murray TEN $8.5K
The Browns are awful and Le’Veon Bell should have his way with them. DeMarco Murray has been one of the steadiest running backs all year long and the Colts are another dreadful defense. Both are dual threats and offer touchdown upside.
WR Mike Evans TB $8K, Doug Baldwin SEA $6.7K, Tyreek Hill KC $5.4K
Evans has eight touchdowns in nine games and double-digit targets in all but two contests. He’s the cost-efficient wide receiver on FanDuel this week. Doug Baldwin is back on track with Russell Wilson and offers big time touchdown upside. Tyreek Hill may not see the volume of other receivers, but he’s a home run hitter who only needs that one big play to return investment. His 13 targets last week were very encouraging regardless of Jeremy Maclin’s health.
TE Martellus Bennett NE $5.2K
He may be chalk, but Bennett has an easy path to 2-3x value with Rob Gronkowski likely to miss this week against the 49ers.
K Dan Carpenter BUF $4.5K
The Bills are better offensively than they get credit for and the Bengals are the 24th ranked defense.
D/ST Seahawks $5.2K
I give a rookie QB zero love going into that building. I’m looking for some turnovers.
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Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the eight-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football. He hosts On Target Fantasy weekdays at 12 noon est, The Fantasy Black Book Tues and Thurs 8-10pm est and Sunday Game Day 8-11am on FNTSY Network Radio.