Fantasy Baseball September 27 Round Up: Aaron Judge Still Looking for 61st Home Run
There may have only been four games on the Major League Baseball slate last night, but amidst the Monday Night Football showdown between Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys versus Daniel Jones and the New York Giants, we saw Pittsburgh’s Oneil Cruz log four hits, and Atlanta’s Bryce Elder fired a complete game shutout. After a rain delay, Baltimore and Boston competed in a high-scoring affair, and the Orioles are now 3.5 games back from nabbing an American League wild card spot and a berth to the MLB playoffs. As we close the door on Monday, we’ll look ahead to Tuesday, and I’ll give you my best bet of the day, which features a likely low-scoring contest out west. Spoiler alert: I’d look at both of these pitchers for your MLB DFS lineups this evening.
Fantasy Baseball News & Notes from Monday
Bryce Elder Twirls Complete Game Shutout
For the most part this season, Elder has been fine for Atlanta, but since being recalled from Triple-A, he’s been quite good. He logged a complete game shutout last night against Washington, and with that performance, he’s now posted a 1.50 ERA (2.12 FIP, 3.36 xFIP) through four starts (five appearances), and if we look specifically at his numbers at a starter since rejoining the club, he has a 0.65 ERA and 9.11 K/9 through 27.2 innings of work.
He’s utilizing his sinker more, which has helped generate ground balls, and his slider and changeup are his swing-and-miss pitches. At this point, it’s hard to ignore what Elder has done of late, and his next start should come this weekend against the Mets, or if weather has anything to do with it, he could see his next start come against Miami early next week.
Matt Olson Heating Up for Atlanta?
Overall in the month of September, Olson is slashing just .127/.222/.228 with a 33.3 percent strikeout rate and a 24 wRC+. However, I believe the tides are starting to turn back in Olson’s favor. He hit his 29th home run of the season last night, and his exit velocity and hard hit rate are trending up over the last couple of games.
Could it just be a good two games for Olson amidst a bad slump? Sure, but the signs are there that he’s turning it around, and if that is the case, it couldn’t be happening at a better time for the Braves as they look to make a run in October.
O’Neil Cruz Logs Four Hits
He may not have displayed the big time power we know that Cruz has, but hey, a 4-for-5 day with two runs scored and no strikeouts is a great day nonetheless. He’s now 6-for-9 over his last two games, and he has gone three straight games without a strikeout. For a guy with a 36.7 percent strikeout rate in 2022, a trio of games without a strikeout is an impressive feat, and it’s just the second time all season that he has put together multiple games in a row without a strikeout.
As we look to 2023, I’m fascinated in seeing how the fantasy baseball community values O’Neil Cruz. Through 80 games, he has 17 home runs and eight stolen bases, but he also has a .225 batting average and that horrid 36.7 percent strikeout rate. He doesn’t have the best supporting cast around him, but he projects to be a guy that should routinely hit 30 home runs with 15+ stolen bases.
Aaron Judge - Milestone Watch
Back on September 20th, Aaron Judge hit his 60th home run of the year. Since that game, while he’s still put forth a .278 batting average and 176 wRC+, he has yet to hit that glorious 61st home run. It’s coming, and he’s seeing the ball well, so he’ll get there, don’t worry about that. However, the bigger watch here is whether or not Aaron Judge can win the American League Triple Crown. He obviously leads in home runs, he has a firm grasp on the RBI lead, as he is 11 RBI ahead of Cleveland’s José Ramírez, but the batting average department is where it gets interesting, as his .314 batting average is just one point ahead of both Luis Arraez and Xander Bogaerts. The last time we saw a hitter win the American League Triple Crown was back in 2012 when Miguel Cabrera won it in Detroit when he hit .330 with 44 home runs, and 139 RBI.
Tuesday’s Best Bet
COL @ SFG UNDER 3.5 Runs First Five Innings (-105 Bet MGM)
This game isn’t at Coors Field, and neither of these offenses scare me to put up runs against the opposition. Logan Webb has a sub-3.00 ERA at home this year, and he has a 2.20 ERA over his last six starts. On the other side, Germán Márquez has a 3.50 ERA and .209 BAA on the road this season, and he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a road start since July 5 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Over the last two weeks, the Giants have the 14th-best batting average against righties, while the Rockies come in at 24th, and these two teams have the eighth-worst and sixth-worst strikeout rate respectively during that span.
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Player News
Tommy Edman is dealing with right ankle discomfort.
It explains why Edman sat out Wednesday afternoon’s series finale against the Marlins. The 29-year-old will benefit from the extra time off to rest and recover. It sounds like there’s a chance he’s ready for Friday’s series opener against the Braves at Truist Park. Fantasy managers should consider him day-to-day for now.
Javier Báez hit his ninth career grand slam Wednesday in the Tigers’ 7-4 defeat of the Astros.
Incredibly enough, Báez is currently a 19-12 team’s best option at shortstop, third base and in center field. The 350-foot homer off AJ Blubaugh was his first of the year, but he’s batting .296/.337/.407 while mostly playing center right now.
Making his first start in 12 days, Jackson Jobe yielded three runs in four-plus innings Wednesday in a no-decision against the Astros.
Jobe was given seven runs to work with in the first three innings today and had a 7-1 lead going to the fifth, but he fell short of his third win. The bottom of the fifth opened with a walk, a single and a two-run double, at which point Jobe was pulled. Braden Hanifee took over and stranded the runner, preventing further damage to Jobe’s ERA. Jobe ended up allowing four hits, walking four and striking out four. He has a 3.38 ERA after five turns, but the 18/14 K/BB in 24 innings is thoroughly unimpressive. He’ll likely make his next start Tuesday or Wednesday in Coors Field, and he doesn’t seem like a great mixed-league option then.
Tommy Kahnle got four outs for his fifth save Wednesday against the Astros.
Just as it looked like Will Vest might run away with the closer’s role, Kahnle seems back in position now. He probably would have gotten the call Tuesday, when Vest was used in the sixth inning and gave up three runs in blowing a lead. Since he didn’t end up pitching in that loss, he was available to get four outs today. Kahnle should be effective enough to close, but there are workload concerns for a 35-year-old reliever who last put in a full season six years ago. We’d take Vest over him for the rest of the season, but if Kahnle was dropped in your league, he’s a decent enough option for now.
Riley Greene singled four times in four at-bats and scored twice versus the Astros on Wednesday.
When Greene gets hot, he can stay that way for a while. He went 7-for-12 with two homers in the series against Houston, pushing his average up to .261, and now he could feast on Angels pitching the next four days.
Colt Keith hit his first homer and walked before being lifted for a pinch-hitter Wednesday against the Astros.
Keith got a third straight start today after being on the bench four of the previous five games. His homer was hit 109.6 mph, which is a new regular-season high for him. He topped that at least a couple of times this spring, when it looked like he’d take a step forward as a sophomore, but he’s instead been very passive at the plate, and he came into the day with just two doubles and three RBI in 85 plate appearances. Maybe things will start to change now. At least he no longer looks like a candidate to be sent to Triple-A to make room for Manuel Margot’s return this weekend.