Everyone wants to be first. It’s all about finding that new shiny player and riding them to victory. There is simply more excitement in a prolific rookie than an old, boring, reliable veteran. But is that the right strategy?

I guess we have to answer a question with a question here, as we need to know what the cost is. At the right price, just about any player is worth drafting but there is something else to consider with rookies; they haven’t done it before at the major league level. That doesn’t mean they can’t, or won’t, produce and make fantasy managers look good, but there is an adjustment period and that isn’t always the case. 

Ultimately, this is a balancing act, and there is more reward than risk here, but rookies shouldn’t be ignored. Let’s take a look at some rookies with first base eligibility that we have our eye on for the upcoming season with ADP’s taken from 268 NFBC drafts from February 1st through March 16th. 

It should also be noted that these aren’t just names you should be considering for upcoming drafts (although Draft and Holds are a different animal) but also to put on your radar for future waiver wire transactions. 

 

 

 

Spencer Torkelson, ADP of 264

This is obviously the big one here as Torkelson could be part of an AL Central battle for the Rookie of the Year this season. The former number one overall pick enters the season with all of the buzz that you would expect of a player of his ilk, talent, and track record, and it’s also possible he heads north with the Tigers.

At this point, Torkelson is the 29th first baseman coming off the board, and from here I only expect his price to rise once Spring Training games begin and the news/hype cycle really kicks into high gear. Early indications are that the Tigers are truly open to Torkelson being their starting first baseman, but at that point we do have to resist the hype and let someone else overpay if his price begins to rise. 

Last year in the minor leagues, Torkelson started in High-A and progressed up to Triple-A by the end of the season. From a power perspective, Torkleson didn’t have any difficulties as he hit 30 home runs while driving in 91 runs, but his batting average did decrease at each level (.312, .263, .238) although his BABIP in Triple-A was just .233. 

Based on where Torkelson is being taken in drafts, he fits right in with other players in this tier, but while he might have more upside, there is also more risk since there will likely be at least a minimal adjustment period to major league pitching. 

Juan Yepez, ADP of 552

From an initial look, Yepez doesn’t have a place with St. Louis as Paul Goldschmidt is firmly entrenched at first base for the Cardinals. However, Yepez does have defensive versatility (at third base and both corner outfield positions) and he is currently slated for a spot on the Cardinals bench but he also could stand to benefit from the newly available Designated Hitter spot in the National League. 

Prior to last season, Yepez generally hit for a solid average, but last season (after missing 2020 due to COVID) everything seemed to click as he hit .270 in 19 games at Double-A and .289 in 92 Triple-A games. The strikeouts were reasonable (19.3%) while Yepez showed good plate skills with a 11.8% walk rate and also hitting for power with a .299 ISO. 

Yepez continued his success in the Arizona Fall League, but we also have to maintain some skepticism here to see if this can be continued. 

 

 

 

Triston Casas, ADP of 552

There isn’t an immediate path to playing time for Casas in Boston this season, but something should materialize this year. Casas only has nine games under his belt at Triple-A, so while there is no questioning his skill set, I would expect him to spend a decent amount of time in the minor leagues to begin the year. 

Last season was interrupted by the Olympics for Casas, but he certainly was impressive in 77 games at Double-A as he hit .284 with 13 home runs and 52 RBI while chipping in with six stolen bases. More importantly, Casas showed a good set of plate skills with a 14.9% walk rate while striking out 19.1% of the time. Ultimately that will likely change once Casas gets to the majors, but he is starting off from a good place. 

We haven’t seen all of the power that Casas has to offer, but he will play this season at age 22 so there is still some developing to do. I would expect to see Casas in Boston mid-summer, but it’s possible that time table gets accelerated if he forces the Red Sox’s hand. 

Nick Pratto, ADP of 576

Are Hunter Dozier and Carlos Santana actually going to hold Pratto back if he is ready to take the next step in his career? Dozier is versatile and Santana is trending in the wrong direction, and the complete opposite is true for Pratto after last season’s explosion in Triple-A. 

Pratto sold out for power with a swing adjustment that led to him hitting 36 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A while driving in 98 runs in 124 games. In 61 games at Double-A, Pratto hit .271 while dropping down to .259 in 64 Triple-A games despite striking out about 29% of the time. 

Even if Pratto turns into more of a .250 hitter, the power development is still enough to make him a viable option. At some point, things will normalize for him and it is telling that Pratto was added to the 40-man roster by Kansas City in the off-season so that does bring him one step closer to the minor leagues. Just don’t plan on a repeat effort from last year’s coming out party just yet. 


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