Don’t overpay. That thought process goes for anything in life, but with the baseball season around the corner, we are concerned with forming your team through the draft. We are left to draft within the confines of the market place, and all it takes is one team (in either direction) to blow things up. Just because the general consensus places a player’s price at a specific ADP, it doesn’t mean it is correct or we have to agree with it. 

Under that tenant, let’s take a look at five players with first base eligibility who I project to underperform their ADP (taken from NFBC drafts from February 1st through March 10th) based on a sample size of 214 drafts. I don’t want to strictly use the word “bust” here, because it is very subjective, so instead, it is more of a look at players I won’t be drafting this season. 

 

 

Ryan Mountcastle, ADP of 112

In the case of Ryan Mountcastle, we are drafting him based on what he did last season, and not what he can do in 2022. Despite hitting 33 home runs last season in 144 games, Mountcastle isn’t projected by any major system to exceed, or even equal, that performance. And why is that?

Even before the Orioles announced they were moving the left field fence back, I had my doubts about Mountcastle after he struck out 27.5% of the time; among other things. Previously, the most home runs he hit in a season were 25 in 2019 at Double-A, but power generally does take a little while to present itself. From a batted ball perspective, Mountcastle has a strong barrel rate (11.8%) and launch angle (16.3 degrees), so it does support success, but with 29 expected home runs last season, he was at the top of his production and a .245 xBA doesn’t provide me with a great deal of optimism. 

Part of this stance, which you can consider contrarian, is that if anything goes wrong with Mountcastle, you are losing value from the start as he is being drafted at the peak. From a draft strategy perspective, I’d prefer to wait a few rounds and draft production that I expect to be similar at worst, if not slightly better. 

 

 

Jared Walsh, ADP of 115

The same logic used with Mountcastle also applies here to Jared Walsh, but in this situation, power has never really been an issue here. It took Walsh a little while to find his footing with the Angels as last year, his age 27 season, was really his first at the big-league level in which we got a chance to see what he can do. 

That equated to 29 home runs, 98 RBI and a .277 batting average and it also came with a 26% strikeout rate. It does appear that the majority of the batting average will remain, and a .250 mark isn’t the worst these days, but that also means Walsh is then Rhys Hoskins (with less home run upside) and a similar version of CJ Cron. If all three produce the same stat line, but the latter two can be acquired a round or two later, then I’m fading Walsh and will continue not to have a share of the Angels’ first baseman. 

From a batted ball perspective, I also have a hard time investing in a player I expect, or need, to hit 30 home runs when they have a launch angle of just 7.8 degrees despite the fact that he didn’t show a gap last season between his home runs and expected home runs. 

 

 

Joey Votto, ADP of 139

Last season, Joey Votto really was one of the better stories as he hit more home runs (36) than he had in his two previous full seasons combined (27 in 2018 and 2019). Votto has had a long career performing at a high level for Cincinnati, but I do have my doubts about a repeat performance as he heads into this season at the age of 38.

You could make the argument that Votto sold out for power, but his career high ISO of .297 does back up the prolific home run total, and despite striking out a career high 23.8% of the time, Votto’s .266 batting average was still pretty solid. But do we really think he is capable of doing it again, as based on the price, we are paying pretty close to a near repeat. 

It’s clear that everything did go right for Votto as his barrel rate of 17.2% far surpasses his next best mark of 10.7% in 2015. The launch angle of 18.2 degrees also supports the home runs, and Votto’s 32 expected home runs per Baseball Savant show that most of what we saw was real. I might be erring on the side of extreme caution here, but I can’t see Votto duplicating this performance, and if he does, we aren’t getting much (if any) of a discount. 

 

 

Frank Schwindel, ADP of 227

We can attack this from multiple angles, but you’ll find me fading Frank Schwindel after he was a popular waiver wire add for many, myself included, last summer. While the addition of the DH in the National League does help, and as of March 11th, Schwindel is currently projected by Roster Resource to bat second for the Cubs, but to say there is little competition for him would be an understatement. 

Prior to last season, Schwindel had just six major league games under his belt before hitting .326 in 64 games with 14 home runs and 43 RBI. But whatever you do, don’t try to extrapolate those statistics to a full season. 

For starters, Schwindel can’t keep up the batting average pace as he was boosted by a .348 BABIP last season. In fairness though, Schwindel only struck out 15.8% of the time, so that does work in his favor. When looking at Schwindel’s batted ball metrics (12.6-degree launch angle and 8%-barrel rate), they don’t scream that a repeat is in order. Chicago doesn’t have much, if anything, invested in Schwindel, so all it takes is one early season slump, and you can quickly be out a corner infielder. More importantly, there are at least six, and potentially closer to ten options that I value higher than Schwindel. 

 

 

Eric Hosmer, ADP of 385

Eric Hosmer is the 34th first baseman coming off the board, and while the cost isn’t prohibitive, it’s still too high for me. There is also the cautionary tale of Hosmer’s minimum pick being 244 as while it won’t completely cost you a championship, he isn’t going to win you one either.

At this point, the lack of power is almost embarrassing as Hosmer hit just 12 home runs last season in 151 games while only driving in 65 runs. With a .269 batting average, Hosmer isn’t a true standout there either. Quite simply, a 5.8%-barrel rate and 3.3-degree launch angle won’t cut it. 

 

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