In what could be a microcosm of the 2018 season, the All Star game provided 90 plate appearances, 44 of which resulted in one of the three true outcomes, a walk, a home run or a strikeout. This translates to just under 50 percent (48.9 to be exact). On an evening which reminds everyone of Mike Trout ’s greatness, he worked a walk versus Max Scherzer and homered off of Jacob deGrom , ho hum, fantasy owners await confirmation of the pending Manny Machado trade with National League only players about to open up the FAAB wallets.
But first, some firsts from the game itself. Last night’s game set the All Star game record with 10 home runs launched in it. José Altuve and Joey Votto each recorded their first hits in spite of multiple appearances. Tough night for Josh Hader , not only on Twitter, but he’s never given up more than two runs in any regular season outing, allowed three last night, although only one run was earned. J.A. Happ ’s never recorded a save at any level of his professional career, until yesterday. Perhaps the Blue Jays can market him as a closer since relievers are the hottest commodity on the trade market. Last, but not least, Chris Sale tied an all-time record making his third straight All Star game start joining Lefty Gomez (1933-35) and Robin Roberts (1953-55).
To no one’s surprise, an Astro won the Most Valuable Player award – Alex Bregman , with he and George Springer dialing back the clock, becoming the first teammates since 1975 to hit back-to-back home runs in an All-Star Game. Steve Garvey and Jimmy Wynn of the Dodgers also accomplished this feat in the All-Star game. Bregman and Springer homered off of Ross Stripling of the Dodgers highlighting another comeback for Houston versus Los Angeles if your into deja vu.
American League Highlights
Starting with some guy named Trout, he’s recorded 17 plate appearances in the All Star game with seven hits in 14 at-bats, three walks, two home runs and two Most Valuable Player awards. Since his birth, Trout only has one fewer home run in All Star games than Alfonso Soriano’s three dating back to 1991. As for his home run, two pictures will define it with Jacob deGrom making a great pitch to lower half on the outside corner:
Result:
That’s all I have to say about that. Trout’s an absolute stud.
On my tombstone, doubting Aaron Judge may be listed upon it. Over the last 365 days, Judge has hit .258/.393/.549 despite his 31.5 strikeout percentage with 119 runs, 47 home runs, 108 RBI and nine stolen bases in 163 games. Yes, he hits better at Yankee Stadium but cannot ignore his .290 isolated power and production in spite of his flaws. He rakes and homered off of Max Scherzer last night. Not too shabby.
Due to the surge of shortstop production of late, it’s easy to overlook Jean Segura . He crushed a three run home run off of Hader, which only tipped the iceberg on his rough night and stood in line for the MVP award until his teammate, Edwin Díaz , blew a lead. Luckily, it was not in a game which mattered. As for Segura, he’s scored 66 runs with seven home runs, 47 RBI and 14 steals with a .323/.354/.458 slash line through 90 games this year. His pace of 150 games with 110 runs, 12 home runs, 78 RBI and 23 stolen bases aligns with Segura’s production the last statistical year. He’s for real.
Remember when pundits doubted reaching for Alex Bregman in the second or third round in 15-team drafts? Over the last 365 days, Bregman’s played 166 games with 114 runs, 31 home runs, 107 RBI and 17 stolen bases hitting a robust .300/.381/.538 for Houston. During this time, Bregman owns a higher isolated power (.238) with more home runs and steals than Kris Bryant . It was not just about Bregman having shortstop eligibility.
No one needed a break more than George Springer who entered the All Star game hitting .146/.261/.194 with one home run during his last 30 days. More appalling, his .049 isolated power in this sample. But, could Springer’s dinger ignite his second half? Springer’s BABIP sits 30 points below his career rate after the first half, he’s hitting a few more fly balls with a lower hard hit percentage but his plate discipline lines up with last year’s breakout. Feeling lucky? Try negotiating with a frustrated Springer owner in your league.
On an evening when many pitchers struggled with home runs, Blake Treinen fired a clean inning in his appearance. Treinen’s anchored the Oakland bullpen converting 21 of his last 22 saves with a 0.79 ERA his last 34 innings prior to the break. He leads major league relievers with a 0.94 ERA and received a nice round of applause from the Nationals fans.
National League Notes
Amidst the pitching heavy weights in the National League, Aaron Nola has emerged. Whether or not people opine about it, Nola’s won 18 of his last 34 starts over the last statistical year with a 2.78 ERA, 2.82 FIP and 1.08 WHIP in 216.2 innings. He’s whiffed 234 batters as well. Nola snapped off some nasty curves and yielded a hit with two strikeouts in his scoreless outing last night.
Targeting players due for positive migration to the mean translates to success in fantasy. One such player could be Willson Contreras , who has now homered on his first pitch seen in the majors and on the first pitch in the All Star game. Contreras has been a fantasy disappointment so far. On the surface, Contreras’ .170 isolated power lags compared to last year’s .223 but he’s hitting more fly balls with what looks to be a lower hard hit percentage. However, during July, Contreras has surged to a .353/.463/.559 line with a .206 isolated power and hard his spike to 42.9 percent. He’s making more contact this year, up over five percent, and cut his swinging strike percentage by two points. His buy low window could expire soon. Explore.
Like Judge above, trusting power hitters with high strikeout rates can be fools gold. Trevor Story added to his rebound season with a home run off of Charlie Morton in the seventh inning. Over the last 365 days, Story’s played 164 games with 85 runs, 33 home runs, 115 RBI, 16 stolen bases with a .278/.338/.544 slash line. More encouraging, he’s reduced his strikeout percentage this year to 25.2 percent compared to last year’s 34.4 rate. Plus, Story’s cut his swinging strike percentage from 14.1 in 2017 to 10.7 this season and increased his contact by almost eight points.
In his quest to fulfill my 20 home run and 20 stolen base season, Christian Yelich wasted a home run last night. All kidding aside, Yelich has not changed much in his approach but has 11 home runs with 12 stolen bases at the break in 82 games for the Brewers. He’s pacing towards 18 home runs and 20 steals, so hoping the spike in hard hit percentage (45.1 percent in the first half) translates to more power in the second half. After losing a fly ball in the lights, Yelich rebounded for a home run off of Morton as well.
Waiver wire gem Scooter Gennett hit a pinch hit home run off of Edwin Díaz . It feels dirty to trust Scooter, but he’s hit 28 home runs with 113 RBI his last 160 games played dating back to last year with a .307/.353/.501 slash line. Former teammate Jesus Aguilar just missed a home run in the same inning but has hit 24 in only 87 games so far pacing towards 40 in 144 this year. Who says the waiver wire’s only for fantasy purposes?
Not only did Joey Votto finally get his first hit in the All Star game, but he homered off of J.A. Happ in the 10th inning. Votto’s hitting .289/.422/.442 at the break but his owners would prefer some more power. He’s only hit nine home runs in 95 games. However, Votto’s generating sparkling discipline number with 73 walks against 63 strikeouts. But, the isolated power of .152 with a 40 percent hard hit rate has not translated to home runs, yet? Some of his underlying metrics align with his first half in 2016, during which he produced a .194 isolated power with a 43.1 hard hit percentage. Could Votto’s home run last night fuel a strong second half? Not sure. Votto did produce a .408/.490/.668 slash in the second half of 2016 with 15 home runs in 72 games. No guarantee, but just saying, a strong finish could be in the offing for Votto.
Did we just become best friends?
It’s more a matter of when, not if, for Manny Machado to be traded. A deal’s reportedly in place with prospects Yusniel Diaz, Dustin May and Errol Robinson headed to Baltimore and Machado to the Dodgers. As of this writing, nothing official but this moment last night could be foreshadowing for “old friends” Machado and Matt Kemp .
Both Andrew Miller and Gary Sánchez have been making rehab appearances and could return this weekend. Be sure to stick with Fantasy Alarm for the latest updates to stay ahead of your competition. Another day of rest could be undone with teams starting to hone in on trade targets.
Here’s to a great second half and so much baseball left to play.
Statistical Credits: