One of the main themes we’ve hit on over the last month or so in the Bullpen Report is closers changing teams. For the most part, that has meant looking at situations where the current closer might lose his job, like Atlanta or Boston. As much as I think Nathan Eovaldi can succeed as a closer, I’m not convinced the Red Sox will stick with him past the trade deadline.
Whenever these teams trade for a closer, that closer’s fantasy value is unlikely to change much. Perhaps he winds up in a worse ballpark or maybe he lands on a better team that will give him more save opportunities, but in general, not a whole lot will change. If you’ve ridden Will Smith to this point, you almost certainly will when he is a Brave, as well.
That being said, a Will Smith trade could be huge for your fantasy league, because it could open up save opportunities for someone else. With that in mind, let’s look at some closers who have a chance to be moved before the trade deadline, with an eye on who is likely to benefit from such a trade. If you’re in a deep league, you probably need to add some of these relievers now, if they are available. In more shallow leagues, you can probably file these names away until after a grade is actually completed.
Will Smith , P, SF
Next in line: Reyes Moronta
The truth is, nobody has any idea who would be next in line if Will Smith was traded. The most popular answer is probably Tony Watson , but Watson has two things working against him. He is a candidate to get traded himself, and he is left-handed. Even if he survives in San Francisco past the trade deadline, there is a decent chance they elect to keep him in a setup role so that they can use him against tough lefties.
If Smith is traded and Watson doesn’t take over, the most likely closer options are Reyes Moronta and Sam Dyson . Dyson has closed before, including for the Giants in 2017, and he is the only Giant outside of Smith to earn a save this season. If the Giants were trying to win ballgames, Dyson is probably the best choice if Smith goes.
Of course, Dyson might be traded himself, and even if he isn’t, it might be worth it for San Francisco to see if Moronta is the closer of the future. Moronta profiles as a typical closer, with 12.25 K/9 and 4.31 BB/9. There is certainly blowup potential there, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he saves 10 games the last 2 months of the season and people start talking about him as the next Kirby Yates , just like they were talking up José Leclerc as the next Edwin Díaz coming into this season.
I haven’t even mentioned Mark Melancon and his 182 career saves. He has been pretty terrible for three seasons now, but it wouldn’t be the most shocking thing for a manager to go to a “proven closer” even when he has better options available in his bullpen.
Ken Giles , P, TOR
Next in line: Daniel Hudson
Giles is reportedly available, which makes sense considering his salary and Toronto’s place in the standings. I’ve always had a soft spot for Daniel Hudson , so take that endorsement with a grain of salt. That being said, he’s been Toronto’s second-best reliever, and I don’t see any good reason they would go to Sam Gaviglio or Joe Biagini over Hudson. I think I would rather add Hudson over any of the Giants’ options, though that might change if I knew for sure who would take over in San Francisco.
Alex Colomé , P, CWS
Next in line: Aaron Bummer
What an unfortunate last name. I haven’t seen any rumors about Colome getting traded, and the White Sox are only seven games back of the Wild Card, so they don’t necessarily have to trade him. I’m also not sure if Colome would close if he was traded, whereas Will Smith and Ken Giles likely would.
Bummer almost certainly isn’t as good as his 1.89 ERA, but his 3.09 K/BB is good enough to get the job done. Of course, he wasn’t nearly as bad as his 4.26 ERA in 2018. Bummer doesn’t have any real competition, and the only reason he would be below Hudson on my list of pickups is that I think Giles is more likely to be traded than Colome.
Ian Kennedy , P, KC
Next in line: I’m not sure it matters
I would add Jake Diekman if Kennedy is traded and Diekman is not, but I don’t expect that to happen. Diekman will rack up strikeouts, but if his K/9 stays above 5.00, it probably won’t matter. If both Kennedy and Diekman are traded, there isn’t any Royals reliever I want. If the Royals gave Richard Lovelady a shot at closing I would be interested.
Shane Greene , P, DET
Next in line: Joe Jiménez
Which would have seemed less likely at the start of the season, that Ian Kennedy would be Kansas City’s closer and get traded to a contender, or that Shane Greene would be sixth in MLB in saves at the All-Star Break? I guess Greene did save 32 games last season, but so far he has lowered his ERA by nearly four runs. Most of that is a BABIP mirage, but someone will probably trade for him.
Jimenez’s big problem this season has been home runs. In the past, control has been an issue as well, but that’s less of a concern when you have a 34.5 percent strikeout rate. Jimenez should be safe if he gets the job, though he may be volatile.