A look at pitchers hot, cold and hurt coming at you in this Week’s Week That Was
Corey Kluber: Corey Kluber was, well, not good again on Saturday. The reigning Cy Young winner went just 5 innings, giving up 8 hits, 4 runs and added 2 walks for bad measure. Now that we are into May and Kluber has not won a game yet, is it time to panic? Answer: No! Yes, the surface stats look bad: 4.62 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and NO Wins. However, let us go deeper. Kluber’s average fastball velocity is off only a tick (93.2 last year, 92.8 this year); his swinging strike percentage is actually up to 12.9% (from 11.9% last year), his ground ball rate is up to 50% (from 48% last year), and while the overall K% is down, he is still striking out a batter per inning. My conclusion: Kluber will rebound and pay dividends for those who are patient over the last 5 months. Indeed, the indicators say he has been unlucky. His strand percentage is a meager 66% (down from 79.5 last year) and his BABIP against is .366 (way too high as compared to a league average .300). Do not be surprised to see his ERA fall down to his current FIP of 3.05 before June is very old. Bottom line: the Klubot presents a buying opportunity. [Final Note here: while I believe in Kluber, I own him only in my keeper league. Why? Because the Rules of Engagement say one should not pay full value for a player who only produced at top levels one time. Those who paid full value for one great season violated the Rules of Engagement and so far have paid the price. Just sayin.]
T.J. House: T.J, House was put on the DL with left shoulder inflammation. This explains a lot. I was so high on House and his all-world GB rate and assortment of swing and miss stuff and yet, he has been, well, awful. The injury now explains what I could not explain before. His stuff is way too good to yield this year’s truly awful 13.15 ERA and 2.54 WHIP. After all, last year in the second half (after getting the starting gig), House had a 2.53 ERA, struck out almost 8 per 9 innings and induced GBs over 60% of the time. Watch this situation carefully. If House just needs some rest and a rehab start or two and comes back healthy, he could be a steal from June on. After all, only Dallas Keuchel and maybe Charlie Morton (when healthy) can produce GB like House.
A.J. Burnett: A.J. Burnett turned in another strong outing Friday. Thus far in the young season, A.J. has a pretty 1.45 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 27 strikeouts over 31 innings. This one is kind of sweet for me and team Colton and the Wolfman because we got ABUSED on the radio for investing $9 in Burnett at the LABR NL draft. Burnett’s success during his last go around in Pittsburgh was predicated on keeping the ball on the ground and limiting walks. Thus far this year, he has done just that as his 57% GB rate and 8.1% BB rate indicate. With Ray Searage to keep A.J. on track, the bigger ballpark to erase some mistakes and a better offense to help add some wins, A.J. should have another strong year in Pittsburgh. Buy!
Kyle Gibson: Kyle Gibson is not striking people out but he is pitching much better lately. Friday, the Twins hurler tossed 8 shutout innings while giving up just 4 hits and striking out 4. So, which Kyle Gibson should you expect the rest of the way? Good question. Well, my answer is mixed. If you need a high K guy, Kyle is not your man. However, if you are in a deep league, Gibson can and will help you. The velocity is up a tick and the solid GB rate of a year ago is still present (still over 50%). Those numbers are nice but leaving that aside for a minute, let’s focus on the fact that he handled the heat, stayed in the kitchen and preserved his team’s 1-0 lead all the way to the 9th inning when he could hand the ball directly to the closer. That type of guts is not in the stat sheet but is key to becoming a serious major league starter. I am buying in deep leagues.
Kyle Lobstein: Kyle Lobstein gave up 4 runs and 10 hits while striking out just two over 7+ innings Friday. Yes, he kept his team in the game but outside of the deepest of deep leagues, Lobstein should not be lobbing the ball for your team. Yes, on the year, he has a respectable 2-2 record with a 3.91 ERA but that 1.42 WHIP is not pretty. With an average fastball velocity under 87mph and a K rate under 4.5 per 9 innings, there is reason to worry. Yes, that 54% GB rate is nice, but with so few swings and misses and so many balls in play, bad things are bound to happen. You can and should do better in anything other than a super deep AL-only. [Note – I mean no disrespect to Lobstein as his performance in the real game has been solid so far and just what the Tigers needed while Verlander heals. However, fantasy sometimes is not reality]
Scott Kazmir: Scott Kazmir was solid again Friday giving up three runs over six innings while striking out six. If you bought the former Met farmhand at the draft table, good for you. That 1.62 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 must look mighty fine on your stat sheet. Again, I say good for you. But, if you want to win your fantasy league, you will sell high. Sell a guy with those stats you say? Yep. Let us take a look at last year. In the first half, Kazmir posted a 2.38 ERA that ballooned to 5.42 in the second half. Similarly, his K rate fell 25% and his BB rose 25% in the second half. Moral of the story – sell high before father’s day!
Mark Buehrle: Last week in this slot I wrote about Kyle Lohse. This week, it is the AL version – Mark Buehrle. The Jay lefty lasted only 4+ innings while giving up 11 hits and eight runs to Schutlz’s Indians Friday. On the year, the lefty has an ugly 6.75 ERA and an equally unsightly 1.93 WHIP. Coming off the second half of 2014 in which he posted a 4.64 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, there is little reason for optimism. Frankly, given that he barely averages 83 mph on his fastball and pitches in the AL East (with its tiny ballparks), I would not expose my roster to Buehrle’s stats unless you see a big sea change. Again, he is a fine crafty veteran for the back of a real rotation but not a fantasy asset in any way. Sell!
And now the moment you well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates a/k/a Schultz says: “So, how important is April? Granted, it's the time when we all get overly excited about the return of baseball but in roto-terms, does April really matter? At this point last year, Corey Kluber, who would go on to win the AL Cy Young, was 2-3 with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. His Cy Young counterpart, Clayton Kershaw, didn't pitch a single game in April, going on the DL after a solitary start in Australia. There isn't a single roto-owner that wouldn't jump in the hot tub, go back twelve months and pounce on owners surely frustrated by their aces' slow start (although Kluber was more of a sleeper going into 2014). Strong final numbers are a great catalyst for forgetting poor starts. Historically, roto-studs like Johan Santana and (the pitcher formally known as) C.C. Sabathia would put up horrendous numbers in April and only return to form once the weather turned warm.
With an uncharacteristic 3.73 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, Kershaw's numbers sit well above his Hall-of-Fame-quality career stats (yes, yes, it's been a relatively short career but c'mon, 2.51 ERA and 1.06 WHIP are simply insane). As for Kluber, his 4.62 ERA and 1.36 WHIP are comparable to where he was at this time last year. It's well worth noting that he finished the season with a 2.44 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, illustrating nicely just how dominant Kluber pitched as the year went on. Fortunately for those who read columns such as this fine offering, there are roto-owners that fail to keep a historical perspective or can't look beyond what a player has done in the last three to four weeks. Perhaps this is the time to find those folks and convince them that Kershaw is spent or that Kluber was a fluke and get yourself a bargain.
Bountiful days are certainly in the offing for Andrew McCutchen, the near-consensus #2 pick off the board. However, his .197, 2 HR and 0 steals are less a symptom of a slow start and more a result of nagging injuries that have lingered since the end of spring training. The 2013 MVP will play like one again. It just may take a trip to the DL to reboot him to factory settings. For those relying on the Pirates superstar to guide them to roto-glory, hope the Pirates braintrust realizes this sooner rather than later.
Finally, congratulations are in order as Bobby Colton (a/k/a as Son of Overlord) graduates college this week. Getting past how old this makes me feel, I couldn't be happier for him. If I'm not here next week, his father gifted Schultz Says to him as a graduation present. Although. I'm sure he'll get him something much more valuable.”
Response: Wow, I must be getting older too as there is little for which I can haze Schultz this week. He presents solid analysis and solid points to keep in mind. Oh, and as to Bobby, it is hard to imagine I could be prouder of him! Those who are parents know that you hope your children will do even better than you have. Bobby is on his way!