Anyone else having trouble getting going this morning? Bring me back to the days when I could sit up and watch an 18-inning game and not feel it the next day, please. West coast or no west coast, the night stretches out far longer than you expect and an early rise Monday morning means it’s going to be a struggle once the afternoon hits. But the show must go on and we’ve got plenty to sort out from this past weekend. Without knowing exactly where to begin, let’s just hit as many major points as we can.
Closing Catastrophes
Once again, the FAAB money got thrown around as those who like to spend their season chasing saves on the waiver wire were ponying up the big bucks to land Tigers reliever Justin Wilson. If you were one of those people and you woke up this morning having found that you won him, congratulations. But while I don’t normally like to run around pissing in everyone’s morning Cheerios, I’m not so sure this was an investment that will pay off in the long run.
Yes, if you’re a Francisco Rodriguez owner, you need to do something. Back-to-back blown saves and eight earned runs in his last seven appearances is maddening. The problem is, there’s no guarantee Justin Wilson is the guy. Both he and Alex Wilson sit as the top two set-up men on the team and both have recorded saves and seen at least one save opportunity. Alex has actually seen two. The question is whether or not it matters to manager Brad Ausmus that he will be moving his most reliable lefty to the ninth inning and be forced to rely more heavily on the likes of Blaine Hardy and Chad Bell. If he’s comfortable with them, then Justin could move to the ninth, but we’ll just have to wait and see as Ausmus said he would address it here on the off-day Monday.
Another thing to keep in mind is that any change made could be temporary. Let’s face it, if the Tigers are going to want to shop K-Rod later in the year, having him pitch low-leverage situations isn’t going to beef up his trade value. There’s more than just a real-good chance that they move him out of the ninth for a few outings, let him get back on-track with a few middle relief outings and then put him back into the ninth when he has his confidence back up. You stand as good a chance of this happening as you do Justin Wilson being named the closer today. So if you didn’t win Wilson in your FAAB bidding, all might not be lost at all. It could have been a blessing in disguise.
In other closing news, it looks like Matt Albers will see some opportunities in Washington, but the Nationals are still shopping around for a closer. The latest rumors have them looking at Kelvin Herrera, so keep that in mind. Not only would Herrera put Shawn Kelley and Koda Glover out of a job, but it would also open the door for a Joakim Soria renaissance. Remember, when one gets traded, another pops up!
David Robertson continues to be rumored out of the South Side of Chicago, but still nothing firm at all right now. Just mere speculation. The White Sox are playing well and with Nate Jones, Zach Putnam and Jacob Petricka all on the DL, it doesn’t look like the team is going to upset the apple cart just yet. This, unfortunately for White Sox fans, is exactly what happened with the Phillies a few seasons ago. They were expected to be terrible and everyone was awaiting the fire sale. They got hot to open the year and suddenly found themselves debating whether they could actually be buyers on the trade market. That prevented them from unloading some over-the-hill guys and ultimately cost them about two years on their rebuild. The Pale Hose seem to be headed down that same path right now.
Dodging Bullets
Well, let’s start with the good news first as x-rays on Anthony Rizzo’s forearm came back negative. Phew! Bullet dodged. Pooch un-screwed. For those Rizzo owners out there, holy cow was that nerve-wracking. At first, it was touch to tell if it caught his hand or his wrist but after replays, you breathed a little easier. An Aroldis Chapman fastball could easily still cause a fracture or break a bone. Fortunately, that’s not the case. Rizzo was a champ and stayed in the game, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take a seat tonight in Colorado, at least for the first game.
Another bullet that seems to have been dodged is with Michael Brantley. The ankle injury he left Sunday’s game with is not considered serious but is expected to hold him out for a day or two. Even Terry Francona came out breathing a sigh of relief when he told the media it wasn’t a high-ankle sprain. Look for the Tribe to be cautious with their outfielder. The offense is struggling right now but the last thing they need to do this early in the season is push a guy whose injury history has everyone on edge.
Believing in Altherr
There’s a lot to love about what we’re seeing out of Phillies outfielder Aaron Altherr. He’s now hit safely in six-straight games and yesterday’s pinch-hit home run was enough to send fantasy owners to the FAAB wallet to unload for him if, for some reason, he was still available. He’s shown a nice blend of power and speed in the minors and while the strikeout rate is a little high, he still knows how to pull back a little and draw a walk when he needs to. The Phillies are in a rebuild here and Altherr is one of those players they need to give a full-time opportunity to in order to evaluate future needs.
The one caveat here is obviously Howie Kendrick and the two-year, $10 million deal the Phillies gave him. He’s due to start a rehab assignment this week and then the question is, where do they play him as they try to showcase him to potential contenders? They’re in a similar boat with Michael Saunders who signed a one-year, $9 million deal in January which also has an $11 million club option for 2018. Neither player is going to be an attractive buy for any club if they’re riding the pine most of the way. I like Altherr’s chances to see more at-bats than he has in the past, but until the Phillies shed some of this veteran money, they need to show off these potential trade chips.
Potential Waiver Regrets
We’ll cover these on the show today, but here’s a sneak preview of my thoughts. Loughy will chime in later…
The waiver love Cardinals outfielder Tommy Pham is seeing right now could be one of the biggest wastes of FAAB dollars or waiver priority this season. He’s in the lineup with Stephen Piscotty and Dexter Fowler both out, but neither is expected to miss any significant length of time. Fowler isn’t even on the DL. The shoulder issue that’s bothering him wasn’t severe enough and the team expects to have him back at some point this week. From there, you’re on the Piscotty-watch and that should end somewhere around the middle of the month. Pham has never been some big power hitter and if you look at his past numbers and game logs, you’ll see this is a pattern for him. He comes out like a house of fire, people go overboard for him and he ultimately fades back into nothing. If there’s anything you’ve taken from these pages, please let it be that chasing yesterday’s numbers is one of the biggest mistakes you’ll make.
It’s really not much different with Aaron Hicks, folks. He may get moved in and out of the lineup depending on injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner, but I don’t necessarily see him sticking with regular playing time nor do I see him even remotely maintaining this level of play. The Yankees have him as an insurance policy but it is not their intent to give him full-time work. He’s probably got more value overall than Pham, but I can’t say it’s going to be by much.
There are a lot of people making a whole lot out of Yonder Alonso’s recent upswing and change in batting stance/approach, but let’s reign in some of the enthusiasm here. If this change in his swing to try and hit more home runs is so effective, why is this the first we’re hearing of it? He’s been full-time in the majors, barring injury, since 2012. Are we saying the batting coaches for the Reds, the Padres and, up til now, the A’s, have been at a loss with adjusting his approach? No one else tried to convince him to start lofting the ball more? And do we really think that a guy with a 51-percent fly ball rate is going to continue to hit .300? I know he was all the rage back when the Reds traded him in the Mat Latos deal, but sometimes a guy just doesn’t develop the way we thought he would and sorry, but I don’t think the breakout is now. He’ll easily hit the most of his career, but how many above nine do we really think he’s going to go?
Eric Thames Watch
As we expected, there would be peaks and valleys throughout the season for Eric Thames. A few weeks ago he snapped out of a 1-for-11 slump and it wasn’t until yesterday when he finally snapped out of a seven-game 4-for-27 (.148) valley which also included a nine-game home run drought. Pitchers are starting to approach him differently and it’s going to be up to him to make the necessary adjustments. Including yesterday, he’s got four home runs over the last two weeks, but he’s hit just .273 with a .276 BABIP and it seems likely that he’ll settle in somewhere around there. Your sell-high window has definitely closed, but you can still treat him as a 25-30 home run guy when involved in trade negotiations.
Again, all nighttime games today, so you’ve got some time to make some tweaks and adjustments if you can. If you’re down in the standings, make sure you’re evaluating your team properly and you’re only exploring deals to make your team better. If you have a trade on the table, really take a look at how it will affect your team. Look at what it does to your roster following the trade. Most people see the immediate only. Think of this as a chess match and try to see things three and four moves into the future.
Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!