SWIP: Measuring Pitchers Effectiveness

We all know what WHIP is, and at this point, it's as ingrained in the fantasy universe as batting average and ERA. Following the methodology of WHIP (walks + hits divided by innings pitched), I created a new measure of a pitcher’s dominance called SWIP years ago in order to better understand pitchers. Never heard of SWIP, you say? Well, I’m about to change that and hopefully you will be able use SWIP to help you analyze pitchers heading into 2015.

WHAT IS SWIP?

S- Strikeouts (abbreviated as K)
W- Walks (abbreviated as BB)
IP- Innings Pitched

Numerically speaking, the formula for SWIP works along the same lines as WHIP. SWIP is determined by the following equation:

Strikeouts minus Walks divided by Innings Pitched equals SWIP.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

Here is an example of how you can figure out SWIP.

EXAMPLE

James Shields had 180 Ks and 44 BBs in 227 innings in 2014. (180-44) / 227 136 / 227 0.60 SWIP

Shield's SWIP for the 2014 season was therefore 0.60.

Though SWIP is recorded in the same manner as WHIP, the way to read the results is slightly different. Whereas the lower the WHIP, the better one has performed, SWIP works in the opposite direction: the higher the SWIP, the better. (It should also be pointed out that there are some limitations to SWIP, chiefly that SWIP favors pitchers with strikeout potential while often shortchanging those pitchers who might actually be “better” real world pitchers.)

Here is a rough estimate of what the results mean to help you to put things in perspective—a key, if you will. The key speaks more toward starting pitchers (relievers should all be at least at 0.50).

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level..
70 to .89: An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69: Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50: A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34: His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

Let’s take a look at how all major league hurlers performed in 2014.

37,441 Strikeouts
14,020 Walks
43,613.2 IP

So in order to find out the major league average for SWIP during the 2014 season, let's plug the numbers into the equation.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP
(37,441 - 14,020) / 43,613.2 
23,421 / 43,613.2
0.537
 SWIP = 0.54

The 0.54 mark last season is a major league best in the 21st century, as the rate keeps inching upward in an almost linear path.

2000: 0.30 SWIP    2001: 0.38 SWIP    2002: 0.35 SWIP 
2003: 0.34 SWIP    2004: 0.36 SWIP    2005: 0.36 SWIP 
2006: 0.37 SWIP    2007: 0.37 SWIP    2008: 0.38 SWIP 
2009: 0.39 SWIP    2010: 0.43 SWIP    2011: 0.45 SWIP 
2012: 0.50 SWIP    2013: 0.51 SWIP    2014: 0.54 SWIP

Let's take a look at 2014 performance for hurlers by the number of innings they hurled. Don't want to leave anyone out. 

160 INNINGS PITCHED

Kershaw was the only hurler in baseball with a mark better than 1.00. The four other men above 0.90—Sale, Price, Strasburg, Kluber—were all Cy Young-caliber good.

Hughes walked 16 batters last season leading to an 11.63 K/BB ratio, the best single season mark in the history of the game of baseball. His best mark before '14 was 3.59.

Wood is likely the first non-household name on the list. Merely need a season of health to change that with his funky delivery.

It's a bit surprising to see that Cueto barely outperformed Odorizzi, isn't it?

Hutchison has a big arm. He was inconsistent in 2014, and pitches in a bad spot, but that's one live arm, no doubt.

Quintana isn't sexy, but he's lowered his ERA and BB/9 mark the last two years, and check out his three year K/BB ratio growth: 1.93, 2.93 and 3.42. That's significant progress.

BIG LEAGUE AVERAGE IN 2014: 0.54

Lance Lynn was an average hurler at 0.54.

Tanner Roark had that great season on the surface and his 0.50 mark in SWIP was the same as that of Sonny Gray. Both marks were disappointing and below the league average. For more on Roark, read why you shouldn't draft him this season in the Baseball Strategies section. 

Yordano Ventura throws about the easiest 98 mph cheese you will ever see. He also walked too many batters and "only" struck out 159 in 187.2 innings, leading to a 0.49 SWIP.

Check out the creepy consistency of three Brewers hurlers: Yovani Gallardo (0.48), Wily Peralta (0.47) and Matt Garza (0.47). All were below league average.

Justin Verlander (0.46) has a danger sign hanging from his chest that is, well, bigger than the chest of gal pal Kate Upton. I guess women do weaken legs. 

Alfredo Simon was a lot of smoke and mirrors last season and he faded in the second half. SWIP says to be concerned after a season with a mark of 0.36. Same can be said of Edinson Volquez (0.36). The Royals likely overpaid for his services.

Chris Young (0.29) pulled an act of illusion that Criss Angel would admire. Ain't no way in hell he repeats his overall success.

Jared Cosart throws gas and has some pretty numbers on the surface. Be very careful. Even with the grounders, it's hard to have success with a SWIP of 0.23. 

80-159 INNINGS PITCHED

Betances had one of the best seasons in recent memory for a middle reliever. In 90 innings he struck out 135 batters, which is more than Rick Porcello, who struck out 129 in 204.2 frames.

Petit might be the best swingman in baseball.

Darvish was dominant yet again. However, continual injuries make counting on him as your ace as risky as counting on your boxers to hold up when you just fell off the roof at that house party Saturday night after one, three... too many drinks. Obviously the same thing can be said for Tanaka. The odds are high, like about as high as me being arrogant and condescending to fools, that Tanaka's elbow will require Tommy John surgery at some point. Keep that in mind. 

Carrasco is a dominating arm, ditto Salazar. You will have to pay for Carrasco after his dominating last two months, but Salazar will come much cheaper than his talent dictates he should. They are obviously better adds than Tomlin, their Indians teammate.

Lee was still a solid performer in 2014. Can't risk an early selection on him, but if that elbow is sound, he should be able to post plenty of good work in 2015 since he just doesn't walk anybody. 

Anibal Sanchez had a 0.57 mark in 2014. The guy has significant skills, but note the injury factor. He's failed to reach 200-innings at any point in his career and his IP marks keep declining (196.1, 195.2, 182 and 126). SWIP says buy, but only at a discount.

BIG LEAGUE AVERAGE IN 2014: 0.54

Homer Bailey, Trevor Bauer and Carlos Martinez were all average at 0.54.

Andrew Cashner couldn't stay healthy, throwing just 123.1 innings, and his 0.52 SWIP was blahtastic. Owns a dominating arm no doubt, but concerns abound. 

The Marlins hope that Mat Latos can regain his form after having arm woes and surgery. His K-rate plummeted leading to a sub par 0.47 SWIP.

Danny Duffy posted a 2.53 ERA and 1.11 arriving as a star in the big leagues. Finally. Or did he? SWIP (0.40) suggests that his fantasy numbers weren't completely earned. 

Justin Masterson had a knee issue all last season and it caused him to lose velocity and strikeouts. His 0.37 SWIP from 2014. If healthy, a rebound is possible, but SWIP isn't really a big fan. Here are his SWIP marks from 2011-13: 0.43, 0.34 and 0.62.

Joe Kelly has a nice arm that throws gas and generates grounders, but don't mistake that for him being a solid fantasy arm in mixed leagues. His SWIP was 0.25. He just doesn't put batters away. 

40-79 INNINGS PITCHED

Earlier I noted that anything above 0.90 is HOF-caliber stuff. That number should be massaged upwards a bit for relievers of course, but what we are seeing right now is bonkers insane (kind of like Mel Gibson alcohol-induced crazy). In 2013 the leader was, you guessed it, Mr. Chapman at 1.31. The runner up was Mr. Holland at 1.27. This past year of 2014, we had five men over 1.25 and 12 in total at 1.10 or better. That number was just seven in 2013. The fact is there are more elite level relievers right now than there have been at any point in history. 

Giles may be the only name with a mark over 1.00 you may not know. He mowed them down as a rookie and should do so again in 2015 (0.80 WHIP, 12.6 K/9).

McGee will begin the year on the DL after having elbow surgery to remove a loose body, dimming his 2015 outlook substantially.

Duke was a mirage. Regardless, he will never close for the White Sox.

Fields has a huge arm and he really cut his walks down last season for the Astros. Intriguing.

Nick Vincent was also at 0.93 last season and if Joaquin Benoit (0.92) were to struggle...

Addison Reed, not as bad as you think? His SWIP was 0.91. 

Glen Perkins had a 3.65 ERA. He's better than that. His SWIP was 0.89.

Mark Melancon gets grounders, strikes guys out and rarely walks them. His 0.85 SWIP was impressive.

Tyler Clippard had a 0.84 mark. He's always good for a late round bid.

Mike Fiers killed it in the second half, as his 0.82 mark suggests. Could be a strong producer if given 30 starts, since he just doesn't walk anyone while producing those strikeouts.

Three closers with a solid but nowhere near elite mark of 0.72: Huston Street, Jonathan Papelbon and Fernando Rodney. 

You cannot trust Michael Pineda to be healthy and you should also be a bit worried about his seven walks in 76.1 innings. It's virtually impossible that he will sustain that rate and if he doesn't, his 0.68 SWIP mark would likely plummet.

Trevor Rosenthal was up and down last season and his 0.64 mark hardly stands out in a positive way.

Zach Britton (0.51) who had a mark below the league average (0.54). Britton had less than a K per inning and his K/BB ratio was 2.70. Solid work, but not the stuff of 35-save seasons. However, the closer that SWIP worries about the most is Joe Nathan (I don't consider LaTroy Hawkins to be a viable option so I'm not commenting on his 0.35 mark). Nathan's 0.43 mark was sub par as his walk rate exploded (29 in 58 innings). At his age, a full rebound seems foolish to expect. 

Finally, the White Sox need to be careful if they are planning on turning things over to Jake Petricka. His 0.30 SWIP mark was downright terrible.