Make sure to read these two articles if you’re interested in first year players.
HITTERS
Tim Anderson appeared in 99 games last season for the White Sox batting .283 with nine homers, 10 steals and 57 runs scored. Given the cost last year, it was a strong effort. Still, a huge issue were the 13 walks, an embarrassing total. He simply swung at everything, leading to a terrible 14.7 percent swinging strike rate. All of that led to a .306 OBP that was only .023 points above his batting average. When his .375 BABIP regresses, and it will, his average will come down and it could drag his OBP into the gutter. Still, he’s got the talent to hit 10 homers with 30 steals, and given the cost this season it’s likely that not enough folks are talking about him.
Orlando Arcia predictably struggled last season as a 22-year-old who’s bat lagged behind his glove. Still, Arcia is one of the best shortstop prospects in the game and he will be playing daily for the Brewers. Lot’s to like 
there. At this point his game is more about his 20+ stolen base speed than it is his overall game (i.e. bat), and it remains to be seen if he will hit anywhere but the bottom third of the order in Milwaukee. A smallish frame and swing suggests that he’s years from a power surge, but he didn’t strike out until reaching the majors so a return to his previous ways would go a long way to allowing the bat to be better than expected in 2017.
Brandon Drury went .282/.329/.458 last season in 134 games as he played first (one game), second (16 games), third base (29 games) and the outfield (89 games). As it currently look, Drury will start at second base for the D’backs yet he could still end up being moved around like he did last year. He tweaked his stance, opened things up late in the year, and it seemed to help. His homer total is capped unless he hits more fly balls, under 30 percent last season, but it’s pretty easy to like a young player who had a .804 OPS against lefties and a .779 mark against righties last season.
Joey Gallo has no spot in Texas as the club has Mike Napoli and Adrian Beltre at the corners. Sounds like the Rangers have decided that Gallo’s now going to try his hand at third base and the outfield, positions he’s obviously played before. That said, the only way be breaks out in 2017 is if (A) someone is injured in Texas or (B) if he’s traded. No player in baseball has more power than the 23 year old Gallo (an average of 44 homers per 150 professional games), but no one strikes out as much either (718 in 485 minor league games and 76 in 133 big league at-bats). A true all or nothing bat who could struggle to hit .250 while leading the league in homers.
Aaron Judge is in a battle for playing time with guys like Aaron Hicks and Rob Refsnyder, but we know that if the club is looking for pop that the massive human that is Judge (6’7”, 255 lbs) will get the call in right field. Judge bombed in 95 plate appearances last season with 42 strikeouts in 84 at-bats, but he has long shown that it takes him some time to find his footing at every level he ascends to. The lack of consistent contact would seem to suggest that his upside this season would be a Corey Dickerson like effort, far from sexy but one that would make his likely draft day cost a bargain. That said, he might also go the way of Gallo and struggle to find at-bats on a consistent basis.
Nomar Mazara was batting .302 with nine homers and 24 RBI though the end of May. You should have seen the cavalcade of shots fired across my bow when I had the audacity to suggest that Mazara wasn’t as good as it appeared he was. People thought I was a moron. Well, from June 1st on Mazara tanked going .248/.307/.389 as a less than league average bat. People abandoned ship om Mazara and haven’t returned (though none have told me I was correct with Mazara). That’s going too far in the other direction, a common trait with folks who are all-in or all-out on a player. Mazara is still just 21 years old and is coming off a season of 20 homers. Is that really bad? No it ain’t. Mazara doesn’t run, zero steals, and walked just 39 times last season while posting a pathetic .548 OPS against lefties which might lead to some benching against portsiders this season. Still, keep repeating to yourself – he’s 21 and hit 20 homers last season – and note that there is plenty of time for Mazara to reach previous levels of expectation.
Raul Mondesi is a young speedster, and with everyone so concerned about base thievery this season, it’s a bit odd we aren’t hearing more about Mondesi. The 21 year old isn’t going to unseat Alcides Escobar at short, but he has a shot to grab playing time at second base though he will have to move past Whit Merrifield and Cheslor Cuthbert to pick up playing time. It’s very possible Mondesi begins the year in the minors after showing his youth with the Royals last season (.185/.231/281 in 149 plate appearances), but these are the wheels of a player that could be a significant base stealer with playing time, even though his bat has yet to emerge at any level.
Mallex Smith is with the Rays now, and a path to regular playing time on Opening Day is hard to envision. A solid defender, Smith dealt with a thumb issue last season (limiting him to 215 plate appearances) before picking up an oblique issue in Winter Ball. The Rays appear likely to go with Colby Rasmus, Kevin Kiermaier and Steven Souza in the outfield so the cost for Smith will be depressed on draft day. Note that all three of those starters have had issues staying on the field consistently, and that this team doesn’t project to have a daily player whose game is all speed based. Oh yeah, Smith can run. He’s a flat out burner. In his limited work last season he stole 16 bases while attempting 24 thefts. If given the chance to play daily this guy could find his way to the stolen base leaderboard.
Andrew Toles is a lefty swinger who posted a .870 OPS last season for the Dodgers in 115 plate appearances. A nearly 25 year old outfielder, Toles swiped 62 bases back in 2013 before falling out of baseball as he dealt with anxiety issues. He returned last year to destroy minor league pitching with a .331/.374/.511 slash line over 82 games before his success with the Dodgers. He will go undrafted in mixed leagues because of the logjam in the outfield, but it’s possible that he opens the year on the right side of a platoon in left field with Franklin Gutierrez, and that could make Andrew a great/cheap target in NL-only leagues.
PITCHERS
Tyler Anderson is 27 years old. Can you really be someone we consider to be important if you have 114.1 innings of big league experience as a 27 year old? What if you also pitch for the Rockies? Alas, Anderson is in the rotation with the Rockies entering ’17, an impressive feat after he missed 2015 with a stress fracture in his elbow. The innings are a concern as he’s thrown 118.1, zero and 141.1 innings the past three seasons with the 141.1 last season the most of his career. You have to like the 51 percent ground ball rate, and the 2.20 BB/9 rate, but he’s in Colorado, hasn’t proven he can chew up innings, and again, is already 27 years old. Cautious optimism.
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Jose Berrios was my choice for breakout rookie arm of the year in 2016. I will cover my head in shame for the next 15 seconds... Over 190 innings at Triple-A, Berrios has been stupendous with a 16-8 record, 3.27 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 211 strikeouts versus just 53 walks. All that success made his implosion with the Twins last season utterly shocking (3-7, 8.02 ERA, 1.87 WHIP with 35 walks over 58.1 innings). Berrios couldn’t locate his pitches, was walking everyone, and when he threw a strike he was blasted for a .344 BABIP and .310 batting average amid worries he was tipping his pitches. There’s a massive rebound coming with Berrios as he’s simply too talented to run face first into a brick wall again. The question remains though as to whether or not he will end up as a front-end starter or just another of the 4/5 types that the Twins seem to regularly turn out.
Ryan Buchter is likely no higher than third in line for saves in San Diego as he’s at least behind Brandon Maurer and Carter Capps, but he brings a nice skill set with him. He’s 30 years old, another fact that will cause folks to dismiss him as an arm of importance. Oh yeah, he also walked 31 batters in 63 innings last season. That’s terrible. Buchter won three games last season, had a save, and produced 20 holds last season as he posted a 2.86 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He only allowed 34 hits last season a year after he allowed 36 hits in 50.2 innings at Triple-A. Guys just don’t square the baseball up against this lefty.
Dylan Bundy won 10 games with an 8.53 K/9 rate over 109.2 innings last season. It was a very effective, yet still somewhat disappointing effort from the former top pitching prospect in baseball. Now 24 years old, Bundy started the year in the bullpen before finishing it in the rotation (14 starts in 36 outings). Bundy walked too many, 3.45 per nine, and wasn’t as hard to hit as he used to be leading to a 4.02 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He also saw his fastball flatten out over his last eight outings as fatigue set in, and he was blasted (6.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 5.08 walks over those eight starts). Given all the setbacks over the years, it’s extremely difficult to predict that he will reach the heights once predicted of him. Note that he has been unable to put any innings on his arm. Here are the numbers the last five years: 103.2, zero, 41.1, 24 and 109.2. Be very cautious, even with some good things he put on tape last season.
Matt Bush was 30 years old last season as a rookie. The first overall pick in the 2004 Amateur Draft, Bush fought plenty of off the field issues before finding his way back to the diamond (the story). Bush made 58 appearances last season for the Rangers with 61 strikeouts and just 14 walks. He pitched extremely well while flashing his 97 mph heater. One of the better setup men in the AL last season, Bush might be behind Jeremy Jeffress if something were to happen with San Dyson, but he might also get a shot to pick up some save chances if Dyson were to go down after that impressive rookie season. A great comeback story.
Chris Devenski had a tweener season as a rookie. He started five games and had just one save and five holds, so most ignored him for most of the season. That was a mistake. In the end Devenski made 48 appearances lasting 108.1 innings with excellent results (just 16 of his 48 relief appearances weren’t for at least 1.1 innings). Not only did he strike out nearly a batter per inning (104) but Chris also walked just 20 batters. The end result was an impressive 1.66 BB/9 rate and 5.20 K/BB ratio. He was very fortunate allowing just four homers, especially since he allowed 41 percent of the batted balls to be hit skyward, but he has a four-pitch mix that allows him to attack hitters with multiple looks.
Blake Snell made 19 starts last season and the stuff was as advertised as he struck out 98 batters in 89 innings. The slider he threw last season had the look of a true wipeout pitch with a 22.3 percent swinging strike rate, though the effect of his four seamer was a bit less than expected. The issue that held him back was of course the free pass as he dished out 5.16 walks per nine innings, an incomprehensibly bad number. Nothing else matters until he throws strikes more consistently. Given that he also walked 4.00 batters per nine last season in 12 starts at Triple-A, it’s clear that Snell needs refinement with his elite level stuff before he can legitimately be expected to take that next step.
Robert Stephenson was a first round selection in 2011. The righty pitched poorly at the Triple-A level with an 8-9 record, 4.41 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 24 starts last season, but unfortunately the marks were even worse in the bigs (6.08 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 1.63 K/BB ratio over eight starts). He threw his fastball 64 percent of the time last season and was simply unable to locate the pitch as hoped. He should learn to trust his secondary stuff – his changeup and curveball are solid offerings – to help keep batters off balance. There is still some debate in the scouting community about whether or not Robert will be a starter long-term or a back of the bullpen arm. Unless his control improves it won’t matter in 2017, but with the late game options in the Reds bullpen, and the health concerns with Homer Bailey, they will likely give him every opportunity to be part of the Reds’ rotation all season long.