Ray’s Ramblings: Shaw or Sandoval?

SPRING PERFORMANCE

There’s no debate, Travis Shaw crushed Sandoval in terms of work with the bat, and reports suggest that Shaw has looked better defensively as well.

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CAREER PERFORMANCE

Shaw has appeared in 65 big league games posting a .813 OPS.

Sandoval has appeared in 995 big league games posting a .791 OPS.

SANDOVAL OUTLOOK

Sandoval is fat. He’s always been fat (Michael Salfino has a very interesting piece about hitters and their body-mass index). Yet to reach his 30^th birthday, Sandoval had a horrible season last year, his first in Boston, as he went .245-10-47 over 505 plate appearances. Just a year before that in 2014 Sandoval went .279-16-73. Two years before that in 2013 Sandoval went .278-14-79. In fact, per 150 games played an average effort for Sandoval has been a .288-17-77. Pretty much the same thing he did in 2013 and 2014, right?

Sandoval had a .270 BABIP last season, his first mark under .291 ever (career .307), so we should expect some righting of that ship in 2016. He also posted a 18.8 percent line drive rate. It’s a 5-year low but less than a point off his career rate. Could easily stabilize this season. His walk rate was down a bit, and his K-rate up a bit, but basically the same stuff there last season. In fact, the only totally out of what number he posted was his 49 percent ground ball rate (43 percent or lower the previous four seasons).

He’s fat. He can look terrible for long periods of time. Still, before last season he had pretty much always been an effective hitter over the course of an entire season. Very little reason to think he couldn’t be effective yet again in 2016 if given the chance.

SHAW OUTLOOK

Shaw will turn 26 years old in April. He stands 6’4”, weighs in at about 225 lbs and swings left-handed. As I noted above he only has 65 games of big league work on his resume covering 248 plate appearances last season. You will hear some folks posit that since he had 13 homers last season in 226 at-bats that he will hit 30 with 500 at-bats this season. Is that fair? Not really.

As a Red Sox Shaw posted a 43 percent fly ball rate and a 17.8 percent fly ball rate. Both those numbers are pretty big in the grand scheme of things. As a minor leaguer, from 2011 through 2015, Shaw had a fly ball rate of 35 percent and a HR/FB ratio of 14 percent. Obviously both of those numbers are below what he did with the big league club last year. Not suggesting 20 homers isn’t possible, certainly that is a level he could reach, but be careful not to expect 30.

Shaw hit a mere .261 in the minor leagues. He hit just .270 with the Sox last year. He’s not likely to help in the average column.

Shaw also isn’t going to steal bases. Five is likely the top mark he could post.

As a minor leaguer Shaw posted a BB/K ratio of 0.64 in the minors. That’s pretty solid for a guy who powers the ball. Per 150 games in the minors he averaged 124 strikeouts. That’s a manageable level for a guy who owns the overall game of Shaw. A warning though. Last season with the Sox he posted a mere 0.32 BB/K ratio, half his minor league rate, and he was on a 150 game pace of 132 strikeouts. Not awful, but not great. The lack of walks by Shaw also resulted in a .327 OBP, just slightly above the American League average last year of .318.

While Shaw hit lefties well last season (.329/.353/.622) he really stunk against rigthties (.236/.313/.410). That’s not good news for a lefty who wants to play every day. There should also be a concern given the fact that Sandoval has always ripped up righties in his career with a .299 average, .352 OBP and .485 SLG. Keep that in mind.

POSITIONAL FLEXIBILITY

The Red Sox will use David Ortiz at DH and Hanley Ramirez at first base. That leaves Shaw to play the hot corner as you already know at this point. Shaw appeared in 55 games as a first baseman last year but only eight games at third base (five starts) so just pointing out that Shaw does not qualify at third base to start the season. Check your league rules to see how many games it takes in season to qualify at a new position.

CONTRACT STATUS

Sandoval is owned $72.4 million dollars on his contract. Meanwhile Shaw is due $515,000 this season. Can the Red Sox really simply bench and forget about Sandoval? Hard to think they can.

CONCLUSION

"I've had a chance to meet with both guys this morning, as I've met with them numerous times throughout the course of Spring Training," said manager John Farrell. "For right now, to start the season, we feel this is the best for our team to go with this alignment." Notice the use of the terms “right now” and “to start the season.” You picked up on that, right?

Then there is this from Farrell.

"The challenge will be for us to carve out [Sandoval’s] role, to keep him in the flow as best as possible," Farrell said. "I think the important thing here is that this is a starting point. Pablo understood it. He's got a long history in the big leagues, and yet we've got to get it right to where he's got an opportunity to earn back that job at some point." Note the last part – about him earning the chance to get his job back.

Injuries happen, so perhaps Sandoval will get his work because of that aspect of the game. But even if everyone stays healthy it’s hard to envision Shaw blowing people away to the point that Sandoval becomes the most expensive pinch hitter in baseball. Shaw’s upside is likely 25 homers and 75 RBIs (think Brandon Moss or Mitch Moreland), with a league average mark in batting average. That makes him a fine target in AL-only leagues and an option at corner infield in mixed leagues. Still, be reasonable with the moderate skills that Shaw possesses and the fact that, despite being named the starter at third base, that he’s still not guaranteed 500 at-bats this season. Sandoval is still worth an add in AL-only leagues but he’s likely not worth a roster spot at this point in mixed leagues unless you are in 12 or 15 teams leagues..

Here's some audio of Kyle Elfrink and I discussing Shaw. 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).