Archie Bradley has had a moderate season for the Diamondbacks. He has 127 strikeouts in 131 innings, an impressive total for the youngster, but he’s also walked 63 batters leading to a horrible 4.33 BB/9 rate and a barely 2.0 K/BB ratio. Just terrible stuff. At least he’s limited the walks a bit of late as he’s issued nine free passes in five games. Certainly a step in the right direction. He’s also cut down on the long ball as he’s gone 4-straight without allowing a homer and he’s allowed just two homers in seven games. Baby steps heading into the offseason.
Alex Cobb – ugh. Cobb was bombed for seven runs while recording four outings in his last outing ending his run of three solid starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. Not so much anymore. Let’s pull back and look at the four starts. Cobb has a 6.63 K/9 rate. That’s a full batter below his 7.65 career mark. He’s allowed three homers in 19 innings leading to a 1.42 HR/9 mark, double his career 0.71 mark. Of course, sample size is big here. At least he’s still getting those grounders with a 58.5 percent rate. Of course, none of that matters if he just torpedoed your playoff chances.
Robert Gsellman is helping to pick up the slack with the Mets and performing passably. He does have a 3.13 ERA over six outings but that’s really the only thing here other than his impressive 1.91 GB/FB ratio. Though he’s allowed two or fewer runs in 3-of-4 starts, he’s also failed to completed six innings in any of the outings and has yet to strike out more than six batters in a start. The 23 year old righty is set to face the Phillies Sunday.
Jon Lester has thrown 80.1 innings in the second half for the Cubs. He’s never pitched better. Lester has tossed up a 1.46 ERA while holding batters to a .228 wOBA. He’s posted an 8.51 K/9, 2.24 BB/9 and a 0.45 HR/9 mark. Those are all elite numbers (duh). Lester is also sporting an impressive 0.91 WHIP, the second year in a row that his second half WHIP has been under 0.97 by the way.
Sean Manaea has posted a 6-9 record with a 4.03 WHIP. That effort is mildly disappointing to some but not to this scribe who felt that some growth was needed for Sean to have significant success this season. I will say though that I’m feeling good about his outlook for 2017. Over his last three starts he has not allowed a run that was earned (two total). Over his last four outings he’s permitted one earned run. He’s also allowed three or fewer earned runs in 6-of-7 outings. Keeping the ball in the yard will be key as he’s posted a 1.30 HR/9 mark though that number might decrease a bit naturally given that his fly ball rate is only 35.5 percent (HR/FB 14.0 percent).
You thought things were bad for Cobb… Matt Moore allowed six runs while recording three outs in a Cobbian fall. Moore continues to frustrate everyone involved in the sport. In 10 outings with the Giants he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs six times. He also allowed three runs in a seventh outing. However, he’s also had three outings with five, six and six runs allowed. Yeah, awful. But, and I hate just put it, that’s who Moore has been to this point of his career. Dominating one night, unable to give depth or consistently get batters out in the next. If he can ever solve that…
Joe Musgrove has thrown 55 innings making nine starts (10 outings). He’s struck out 51 batters and his 2.62 BB/9 rate is really solid. He’s also been homer prone with a 1.47 HR/9 mark, and over his nine starts he’s just 3-4 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He has permitted six runs his last three outings, a nice little groove, but overall he hasn’t inspired much overt excitement.
Hector Santiago has won a career best 12 games though he also has a career worst 4.82 ERA. He’s also seen his K/9 rate dip to 7.25 which is a five year low as his walk rate continues to be scary (3.97 per nine this season versus 4.00 for his career). He’s allowed 59 homers since the start of last season and until he does something about that, something his skills suggest he may not be able to improve upon, he’s best left on waivers at the draft table next year.
Drew Smyly knows a thing or two about homers as he’s permitted 32 homers in 29 starts this season. He too allows an insane number of fly balls, like Santiago, which always leaves him vulnerable to the big inning as Smyly has allowed a homer in 7-straight games. He’s permitted three runs his last two starts, this on the heels of 10 runs in two outings. I’m a fan, but even I have to admit you cannot ever seem to get a true handle on the guy, so trust is never a word to use with the lefty.
Julio Teheran has a 3.10 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. The WHIP is the 5th best in the National League in case you hadn’t noticed.
Jake Thompson has allowed three or fewer runs in 5-straight starts on his way to a 2.97 ERA in that time. He has allowed four homers in those starts and his 3.56 walk rate per nine has led to a dreadful 1.50 K/BB ratio. The results have been there the last month. At the same time the skill set just doesn’t support the run.
Adam Wainwright might be able to hit, he has 18 RBI this year the most by any pitcher since 1971 (Fergie Jenkins 20 in 1971), but he’s not pitching well. Waino is 12-9 with a 4.57 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP and a 7.07 K/9 rate. He’s been nothing other than a league average arm who has allowed four runs, while failing to last six innings, in three of his last four outings. Sorry Adam, you didn’t live up to your self-aggrandizing words from the preseason.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).