Ray’s Ramblings: The Steal Game

SEASONS: 2000-14

Over the first 15 seasons to begin the 21^st century…

In the American League there were 17 individual seasons of 50 steals.

In the National League there were 22 individual seasons of 50 steals.

That’s a total of 39 seasons of 50 steals.

Obviously that’s less than one 50 steal season each season.

2015 REGULAR SEASON

Last season there were two men who stole 50-bases: Dee Gordon (58) and Billy Hamilton (57).

Only three men swiped 40 (Charlie Blackmon 43).

There were a total of just seven men who stole 30 bases: Gordon, Hamilton, Blackmon, A.J. Pollock (39), Jose Altuve (38), Ben Revere (31) and Starling Marte (30).

There were 30 men who stole 20 bases over the course of the 2015 regular season.

Obviously folks are going to have to step up with Pollock hurt and Gordon suspended.

2016 REGULAR SEASON

We are just over a sixth of the way through the season (there are six months of the season, and we’re obviously five days into May). So, if you want to be crude about it, you can just take a guy’s steal total and multiply it for a rough guess as to what his total would be if he played 162 games. No one plays 162 games anymore. So how about we do this to be safe. Let’s not be the people that think everyone is going to steal 50 bases this season or hit 50 homers. How about we try to be reasonable. Let’s take a guy’s current steal total and multiple it by 5.5 which would equate to a season of roughly 150 games played. Sound good? Here would be that leaderboard.

As you can see from this list, there are 24 guys, if we posit about 150 games played, who are on base to better 20 steals. Remember, there were 30 men who hit that mark last season.

Altuve (55 pace) stole 56 bases in 2014, but in the other three years of the last four he’s swiped 33, 35 and 38 bags. He could certainly get to 50 again, but he’s only stolen 39 bases once in four years. Caution.

Villar (44) really can’t hit. Through 223 big league games his slash line certainly underwhelms (.240/.311/.357), and that includes a sub league average OBP. His first two seasons he stole 35 bags in 145 games and I wouldn’t put it past him to swipe 40, that is IF he can stay healthy and hit well enough to stay in the lineup daily.

Ellsbury (38.5) needs to stay healthy. Can he? Only once in four seasons has he appeared in 135 games, and given that he’s 32 years old it’s foolhardy to expect him to appear in 150 games this season. It therefore seems foolhardy to expect him to swipe nearly 40 bases. Just my two cents.

Upton (33), the elder, has stolen 30-bases in five different campaigns. You might have forgotten that the 31 year old outfielder stole 42 or more bases each year from 2008-10. He won’t steal 40. He won’t steal 30. Could he steal 20? That’s possible. He hit that mark in 2014.

Fowler (27.5) has an insane .470 OBP. One of the better on-base guys in the league, his career mark is .366 and he’s been between .346 and .389 each of the past seven years. He might, might reach .400. Seems a bit unlikely though even with his hot start. I note that because even with all the getting on base, Fowler has stolen 20 bases just once in the last six seasons (20 last year).

Desmond (27.5) stole at least 21 bases each season from 2011-14. His mark dipped to 13 last season and some worried that the now 30 year old was slowly losing his stolen base aptitude. He can still see a base but the issue is getting on base. The last two seasons his OBP has been .313 and .290, and the mark this season is .309. He isn’t a league average type at getting on base and that makes his ability to swipe 20 bags far from a certainty.

Harrison (27.5) is off to an excellent start hitting .320 with a .351 OBP. However, it’s highly unlikely that he will push 30 steals. Harrison has 28 steals the last two campaigns while being caught 15 times. That’s a terrible 65 percent success rate, below the threshold that you’re even helping your team to score runs (that mark is 67 percent). He’s currently 5-for-5 this season, and history suggests that his pace will slow, both in terms of the amount of running he’s done and the success rate.

Suarez (22) stole seven bases over the first 182 games of his big league career. He has four steals in just 27 games this season. Hmm. Suarez did steal 21 bases back in 2012, but here are his steal totals since (minors/majors combined): 2013 (11), 2014 (9) and 2015 (7). It would be shocking if he stole 20 bases. I don’t even think it’s legit to think he will swipe 15.

Some others of note.

Lorenzo Cain is on pace for about 17 steals despite stealing 28 bases each of the past two seasons. Blame his .296 OBP – he’s just not getting on base enough yet.

Mike Trout has two steals. He’s gone from 49 to 33 to 16 to 11 steals last year. Nearly a 50 steal guy just four years ago, Trout would appear somewhat unlikely to steal even 15 bases this season.

Ryan Braun went 25/24 last season. He’s on pace to better that homer total with five in the early going, but he’s only swiped two bases despite all his hitting thus far.

Kevin Pillar is hitting at the bottom of the Jays order, and with two steals he’s lightly years from the 25 theft total he posted last season despite the fact that his OBP is up .013 points this year (.327).

Ketel Marte stole 20 bases last season in just 65 games at Triple-A. This season he’s swiped two bases in 25 games.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).