Matt Adams isn’t in the Cardinals lineup Friday. You would think a righty is on the bump, but the fact is that it’s righty Shane Greene. Adams is sitting against a righty as a result of one hit in his last 30 at-bats. Can we finally, please, move on from the idea that Adams is going go to develop into something? He’s not anything other than what he is – a moderate option best used as a spot starter in mixed leagues. Adams is down to .236 with three homers through 32 games giving him at total of 18 homers with a .278 batting average over his last 174 games. Mark Reynolds is starting with a decent slash line over Adams Friday (.261/.346/.435).
Jay Bruce is batting .133 with a .426 OPS in May. There are a few positives I can see at the moment is that his walk rate is way up at 13.2 percent (9.5 for his career). His BABIP of .189… come on, his career mark is .290. ‘But Ray, he’s not hitting the ball hard.’ Well, not exactly true. His hard hit ball rate is 39 percent compared to 34 percent for his career. His pull rate of 43 percent is pretty close to his 45 percent career mark. His 14 percent HR/F ratio is just a few swings off his 17 percent career mark. I would be buying low. Goodness know that low is so low right now that he’s on waivers in plenty of leagues.
J.D. Martinez is in a killer slump right now with a .200 average, one homer, one RBI and a 34.1 K-rate in May. The slump has dropped his average down to .244 and his OBP to .314. His K-rate of 31 percent is also the worst of his young career. Basically he looked like the 2014 JDM in April and in May he’s looked like the 2011-13 version. Which one shows up the rest of the season? A hybrid? Clearly JDM has decided that lifting the ball is in his best interest, and since the start of last season he’s posted a HR/F ratio of 19 percent ensuring that a lot of homers will be a coming. As for his overall approach it’s simply not one that can support a .315 batter (his mark last season). Think more the career number that he’s currently the owner of (.270).
Mike Moustakas had a .356/.420/.522 in April. Here we go. In May he’s at .225/.279/.300. Can’t say I didn’t warn you.
Joc Pederson has had a magnificent start to his career, but be aware of a few things. (1) He’s hitting .180 in May. (2) He’s struck out 21 times in 50 at-bats in May. Just a warning as his average has tumbled down to .243. (3) The guy is the owner of a 37 percent HR/F ratio. There is zero change the number stays that high. In fact, it’s likely the number could be cut by as much as 50 percent as we move forward. Thirty homers is possible, he already has 10, but be expecting the homer pace to really slow as we move forward.
I think I’m gonna see this movie this weekend… yes, it’s with a lady friend.
Devon Travis is batting .182 in May. The slow month has brought his slash line down to a still impressive .274/.343/.516. Law of averages though folks, that’s what we’re often dealing with when we talk about guys that have those massive April’s. Long-term concerns with Travis include a 51 percent ground ball rate which doesn’t say 25 homers, especially when his 21 percent HR/F ratio declines. He’s also had a subpar 17 percent line drive rate to this point of the season. He’s locked into the daily lineup, but there are concerns.
DIAMONDBACKS BULLPEN CHANGE
Addison Reed has been removed from the 9th inning for the Diamondbacks according to manager Chip Hale. Reed, who has really struggled, will work in low leverage situations while working on his mechanics. The manager sounded like he fully intended to return Reed to the 9th inning once his situations were ironed out.
What will the D’backs do until then? We will get the old mix and match approach. We could see Oliver Perez get a shot here and there. Perez has a dominating 10.61 K/9 mark, but he’s also left handed and has horrible ratios – 5.79 ERA, 1.82 ERA. Mayeb Daniel Hudson or Randall Delgado? It would seem that the most logical candidate currently on the roster is Brad Ziegler since Evan Marshall was demoted to Triple-A early this week. Ziegler has made 484 big league appearances in his career and he’s only the owner of 33 saves. Moreover, from 2010-precent, 5+ years, he’s had a total of 15 saves. His career ratios are solid – 2.52 ERA and 1.24 WHIP – and his ground ball rate is sick at 66 percent. However, his career walk rate is worse than the league average at 3.20, and he doesn’t strike anyone out. For his career Ziegler has a 5.97 K/9 rate and this year that mark is pathetic at 3.77. Plus, he’s about as funky as you can get with those mechanics. Here’s a good shot from his days with the Athletics.
Add Ziegler in all leagues, but his odds of long-term success, i.e. holding on to the role, appear to be low.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).