Ray’s Ramblings: The Phillies Bullpen Mess

I didn’t recommend you folks target anyone, or for that matter even draft anyone, in the Phillies’ bullpen this season. There wasn’t a single stand out option that the team could turn to. By my count, less than a week into the season, the Phillies are already moving on to their fourth potential option in the 9^th innings (I consider Andrew Bailey to have been the first choice, even if he’s in the minors now). I will break down the candidates. It’s ugly.

*NOTE: Make sure to bookmark out 2016 Fantasy Baseball Closer Grid.

OPTION #1 – Jeanmar Gomez

Ryan Lawrence reports that Gomez is next in line to get a shot at the 9^th inning. "We're auditioning," manager Pete Mackanin said. "We've got to find out. It's a daily question. Why not Gomez? Let's see what he can do."

A 28 year old righty, Gomez has appeared in 186 big league games and produced… one save. One. In fact, there have been concerns about whether or not Gomez could even handle the 9^th inning. At the same time Pete seems to believe in Gomez because "He hasn't told me he's uncomfortable there,” meaning working the 9^th inning.

As for the skills of Gomez, they aren’t there. His first three big league seasons he started 38 out of 42 outings. I will cut those three years out of our discussion. Here’s a look at his performance the past three seasons when he made a mere eight starts (none the last two years).

* G/L/F stands for ground ball, line drive and fly ball rates as a percentage.

Before you get excited about the ERA note that his xFIP (4.04) and SIERA (3.93) aren’t supportive of the raw ERA he’s posted. So we’re looking at a guy who has been league average in the ratio categories. His K/9 rate is laughably pathetic (as I’ve pointed out before, of the 28 men who posted 20 saves last season Brad Ziegler was the only one with a K/9 rate under seven) and his walk rate is right on the league average. Honestly, the only thing he does that stands out in a positive way is his ability to get ground balls. I like that a lot, but that’s all there is here. It’s likely not enough.

OPTION #2 – David Hernandez

Hernandez, a 31 year old, owns an 8.99 K/9 mark for his career which I like. He’s also the owner of a terrible 3.84 per nine inning walk rate that is a batter worse than the league average. He also, in opposition to Gomez, allows a ton of fly balls. His 49 percent career fly ball rate has led to a 1.30 HR/9 rate for his career, and the worst thing a closer can do is to (A) walk a batter (B) give up a home run. In both measures Hernandez fails. He also owns two ratios – a 4.20 ERA and 1.32 WHIP – that are numbers which are worse than the league average. He has 19 career saves in 38 career opportunities. That ain’t good.

OPTION #3 – Dalier Hinojosa

Hinojosa is 30 years old and from Cuba. He pitched poorly in his time in the Cuban National Series with a 4.29 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 rate over eight seasons. He came from Cuba to join the Red Sox organization and threw 41 games of relief work at the Triple-A level in 2014. He then tossed 29 games totaling 55 innings last season a Triple-A between the Sox and Phillies organizations before graduating to the big leagues to toss 24.2 innings. In 116.2 innings at the minor league level he posted a 3.78 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, a strikeout an inning but 4.2 walks per nine. In his limited big league work, which includes 1.1 inning this season, Hinojosa has an 8.39 K/9, 3.81 BB/9 mark, a 1.38 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. His BABIP is .212, way too low, and his 94 percent left on base percentage is obnoxious too. Not an exciting profile and he was called into the Phillies game Friday in the 6^th inning. So much for him closing.   

OPTION #4 – Andrew Bailey

Bailey had 24 saves in each of his first three big league seasons. The last four seasons he’s failed to reach 30 innings in the big leagues as injury after injury kept popping up. In fact, Bailey has thrown a total of 52.2 innings in the big leagues since 2012. Yeah, terrible. He can’t stay healthy. Cannot. Bailey is currently part of the LeHigh Valley IronPigs.

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CONCLUSION

Who cares?

Seriously.

You need saves, I get it, but no one here profiles as an arm you can trust. The guy who likely owns the best skills can’t stay healthy and is in the minors. The guy who no one can spell his name correctly was bad in Cuba, average in the minors, and has been very fortunate in the big leagues. The guy with the most big league saves hasn’t been fully healthy or remotely successful early on. The guy who currently looks like the closer has one save in his career and his skills don’t impress, at all.

You can do better.

Do better.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).