Ray’s Ramblings: Mailbag, March 31st

Should I drop Brandon Crawford for either Trevor Story or Ketel Marte?
-- TheDSportsFan

First, some video highlights to point you towards. Here are the reports on Crawford and on Marte that highlight their outlooks and my pretty face. Now let’s tackle the issues with Story, everyone’s darling until Wednesday when we got news that the charges against Jose Reyes are likely being dropped).

1 – Jose Reyes will be on the field at some point in 2016. We don’t know when yet. It could be May, July, August, we just don’t know yet (MLB is going to suspend him for some time. Realize they gave Aroldis Chapman 30-day for his transgression). I have to think, strongly in fact, that when Reyes is healthy and in baseball shape that he is starting at shortstop for the Rockies. They might want to deal him, and might be working diligently to do that right now, but Reyes will be 33 in June and is owed $44 million this year and next so he’s not going to be easy to move. Reyes will be back at some point (perhaps soon), and one would have to think the Rockies will have to showcase him, let him prove he is healthy, and then try and deal him. It’s not like Story is going to play third base (Nolan Arenado) or second (DJ LeMahieu) either when Reyes returns.

2 – Let’s talk Story now.

Yes, Trevor has crushed it in Spring Training batting .354 with six homers and a 1.280 OPS in his first 54 plate appearances. That’s bonkers good. Still, we’re talking 18 games folks. I mean, Justin Smoak has a 1.169 OPS and Jean Segura is at 1.317 this spring. #SmallSampleSize

Story isn’t an elite level prospect. Sorry, he ain’t. In fact, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com last ranked Story as a top-100 prospect in baseball way back in 2013. According to Baseball America Story was is listed as just the 8^th best prospect with the Rockies heading into the 2016 season. According to Baseball Prospectus Story is just the 10^th best prospect with the Rockies in ‘16. According to MLB.com Story enters the 2016 season as the Rockies 11^th best prospect. Sorry folks, but none of the major scouting sources think that Story is anything other than an option to be a solid player long-term. No one thinks he will be a star.

Let’s break down the skills of Story.

Story has hit .263 over 537 minor league games and that includes only 61 games above Double-A. That’s not good.

Per 500 at-bats he’s averaged 17 homers.

Per 500 at-bats he’s averaged 23.

That’s the intriguing part – his strong power/speed combo for a middle infielder. Still, a quick scouting report. He has an uppercut in his swing and often sees his swing elongate which throws his balance off and opens him up to chasing pitches. He can also struggle against upper level off-speed stuff and all of that leads to punishing strikeout totals that has led to 630 strikeout in 537 games. That’s horrible and a pace of 176 punchouts for 150 games. Finally, I can’t help but think about Josh Rutledge circa 2013. Story has a .263/.348/.469 minor league slash line. Rutledge owned a .318/.375/.488 slash line. How did his career turn out for Rutledge who had all that hype too?

I would rank them Crawford, Marte then Story.

Follow this link to check out the entire Player Profile Series.

This one is two parts. First @cooperkyle222 asked “Is Dellin Betances worth an add now that Andrew Miller is hurt?” My response. “How was he not drafted? Is this an 8-team league?” Then @tecumseh254 chimed in and asked the following. “Why would he have been with no probability of saves? Strikeouts are nice but seven other teams will win saves every week.”

First off, I don’t know if it’s an 8-team league. I merely said that because I was stunned that Betances wasn’t drafted. For all I know it’s likely that the league is a 10 or 12 team league.

Second, before the injury to Andrew Miller yesterday (a chip fracture in his non throwing wrist), I had Betances as a top-25 mixed league reliever. Even if it was an eight team league like I hypothesized, that would mean that Betances should have been rostered, given that it’s extremely advisable for clubs to have at least three relievers, if not four or five, on their roster.

Third, let’s talk Betances and why he’s a top-25 reliever, even if he’s not closing for the Yankees. Let’s compare what Betances has done the last two years to the performance of Carlos Carrasco last season. I bet you will be shocked at what the numbers show.

Take a look at those numbers again. Per inning pitched Betances was better than Carrasco – by a substantial amount. In fact, per inning pitched he’s been better than virtually every arm in baseball. Check it. Let’s compare Betances the last two years to other elite starting pitchers in 2015.

See why Betances should have been drafted now?

“Would you drop Aaron Sanchez for Shane Greene?? I know how you feel about green, so be objective.”
-- Fantasysports 55

I did a video about Sanchez earlier this week. Make sure to check it out. I believe it’s very instructive and offers a Jays plan for Sanchez that folks seem to be ignoring. At some point, later in the year, the Jays fully intend to return Sanchez to the bullpen which obviously dings his long-term outlook.

As for Greene, yeah, I’m a big fan. I predicted a breakout last year that didn’t happen. Don’t forget though that when healthy, and he was hurt last year eventually requiring surgery to fix numbness in his fingers, that he had some impressive outings last season (Greene allowed a total of two runs over his first three starts covering 23 innings, and over his first eight outings he allowed one or zero runs four times). Just saying, there’s still a nice arm here when healthy. However, Greene has two things he has to fight. First, his poor performance last season makes it imperative that he starts off this season quickly or he could face a demotion. Second, he’s only in the rotation right now because Daniel Norris has a wonky back at the moment. Norris should be healthy early in the year which means he might be able to reclaim his starting spot if Greene struggles.

I would favor Sanchez by a hair, but they are on the same tier in the rankings, and it’s a pretty tough decision.

Which side you prefer: Felix Hernandez and Christian Yelich for Carlos Gomez?
-- DalyBeastMode

Confused a bit.

Hernandez is the 18^th ranked SP according to ADP info from the NFBC.

Gomez is the 16^th ranked OF according to ADP info from the NFBC.

Hernandez has an overall ADP of 51.4. Gomez is just above that at 49.9.

Seems like a 1-for-1 is something everyone would agree with is fair.

I would concur with that position.

I would certain NOT toss in Yelich who I believe could easily be a top-25 outfielder this season. If anything, the guy who owns Gomez should be the one tossing in a sweetener, not the owner who currently has Hernandez on his/her roster.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).