Ray’s Ramblings: Is Schwarber a Star?

I had the audacity to suggest that Willson Contreras is a better overall hitter than Kyle Schwarber on the Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Though I laid out my case in that audio clip, I thought I would expand upon it here.

*Note that I used the term “hitter” in this discussion. Schwarber has massive power, bigger than Contreras without doubt, and he will almost certainly be a bigger run producer as well. I was talking about overall hitting, not homers and RBI.

Start out with their limited production at the big-league level.

The players are only five plate appearances apart with virtually identical, albeit limited, work in the big leagues.

Look at those numbers again.

In all the ratio categories Contreras is better than Schwarber.

Now you can’t say Contreras is better and microphone drop things since neither man has even 300 plate appearances in the bigs, but let me ask you something. Are you surprised at what you saw above? It’s OK to admit you are. I wonder if the folks who then attacked me on Twitter, and you know who you are, were aware of those numbers? Regardless if you were or weren’t you still thought I was an idiot for being pro-Contreras, why? Here are some of the Twitter thoughts that were flung at me.

you're a tool. Schwarber will be star.

Very small sample size. Willson is a year older w/more total pro ABs. Schwarbs has more pop, better pure hitter. Stay tuned.

he's Kyle Schwarber. Which is way better.

lol BS. Going to be way better average hitter and get on base

Contreras is not a better hitter than Schwarber. In fantasy or real life. Period.

ummmmm no.

Biased Cub fan, but sounds like something Cowherd or Skip would say to get clicks. Let's c how it plays out

I like that last one. How could someone who follows my work think I say things to get “clicks”? I never do that. I say/write what the data tells me. I don’t say things to make people hate or like me.

I would ask all of you... why do you think that it’s so easily Schwarber over Contreras? Because he hit 16 homers as a rookie in half a season? Because he had a good at-bat in the playoffs? I’m not suggesting that Schwarber stinks, I’m suggesting that Contreras is a better overall hitter.

Let’s look at Schwarber. Here are some quotes from his Player Profile from the preseason last year. Obviously not much changed because he barely saw the field last season.

“...we are talking small sample sizes with Kyle, about 200 professional games is all. Keep that in mind as we assess the data.”

“He has solid plate control, understands the strike zone, has good plate coverage and is an extremely hard worker. The makeup is off the charts.”

“Over his first 130 minor league games he posted a .370 BABIP. That’s insanely high despite a rather average 19.9 percent line drive rate. His HR/F ratio was 23.1 percent...” By the way, only eight bettered that mark in 2016. In 2015 only five men did.

“What about that line drive rate of his? To this point of his professional career he’s been unable to reach the league average in the category. That’s a concern.”

“In 232 at-bats he whiffed 77 times leading to a 28.2 percent K-rate. Over the course of 550 at-bats that pace would lead to 183 strikeouts... the three men that struck out that much [in 2015] failed to hit higher than .275: Chris Davis .262, Kris Bryant .275 and Ian Desmond .233.”

“Additionally, Schwarber posted a 14.4 percent swinging strike rate last season, a very high number.” The league average the last two seasons is 10.0 percent. Only 11 men were worse than 14.4 percent in 2016.

“His work against lefties though left a lot to be desired (.143/.213/.268). His BB/K ratio also dropped all the way to a sickly 0.19 as he struck out an unconscionable 27 times in 56 at-bats.”

“As for pitch types, this is how teams chose to attack Kyle in his rookie season.”

*At-bats that ended on that pitch
** ISO is Isolated Power.

Hitting the curve has been an issue.

Hitting lefties has been an issue.

It’s why I suggested that his 5x5 fantasy production could look a lot like Jay Bruce. You should have seen the firestorm that caused Thursday night as if a .250-30-90-80 type of season from Schwarber would be beneath him. Is that how high you have set your expectations with Schwarber? If it is, no wonder you think I’m half-baked in suggesting Contreras is a better hitter.

Time will tell I guess, but I just don’t get why folks wanted to burn the studios down when I suggested that Schwarber has holes in his swing that make him less of a hitter than folks seem to think.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).