NFL DFS Strategy: The Final Week

Wow, what a complicated week. You’d think by Week 17 we’d have this down. First off, the pricing is as tight at all positions as I’ve seen all season – likely because there are several upper-echelon players not playing which leaves less room for disagreement among the better players at each position. Now add in all the narratives that mess with your head and there are fewer lock-it-in cash plays than usual. The really cool idea by the NFL to have all teams playing within their division has accomplished its goal by giving just about every team a reason to play.

You’ve probably read by now that the only team to outright avoid is the Washington Redskins as they’re locked into the fourth seed in the NFC so Kirk Cousins and Jordan Reed are off the table. Here’s a quick review of all 16 contests with the DFS cash game implications:

AFC

New York Jets at Buffalo: Jets need to win and you know Rex Ryan would prefer they didn’t so everyone is in play.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: Bengals playing for second seed and a bye. Baltimore is already using reserves so it’s not like they need to protect their future. Everyone is in play but always side with the team with more on the line so I’m fading the Ravens.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: After last week’s turd, the Steelers need to beat the Browns and need help from Buffalo. As intense as this rivalry is, I’m not touching any Browns, which really isn’t a big sacrifice.

Jacksonville at Houston: Of all the AFC games, this has the least implications as it will take an odd confluence of events for Indianapolis to win. This is the toughest call on the board as Blake Bortles has been cash game gold along with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. The Colts are playing at the same time so if the Titans are winning decisively, the Texans could pull their starters so my lean is playing Jaguars as normal. The problem is Bortles price has finally risen to match his production.

Tennessee at Indianapolis: As suggested, the Colts still have a Lloyd Christmas-like chance of making the playoffs but the problem is the tilt features a Zach Mettenberger versus Stephen Morris battle of arms. This is a GGP game, not set up for cash action.

New England at Miami: The Patriots have secured a bye but can still gain home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win. If the Pats have the game in hand, they’ll bench whatever healthy players they have so this looks like a fade on both side.

San Diego at Denver: The Broncos can win the AFC West with a win so they’ll treat this as a playoff game. While this isn’t an intense rivalry, they are division foes so I’d expect a strong effort from the Chargers. As such, it really doesn’t set up as a cash game – not with Brock Osweiler at the helm and I’m not challenging the Broncos defense.

Oakland at Kansas City: The Chiefs can win the AFC West with a win coupled with a Broncos loss. This is one of the most storied rivalries so playing the Chiefs isn’t a no-brainer but they’re in play. On the other hand, I’ll fade the Raiders on the road.

NFC

New Orleans at Atlanta: In a game strictly for pride, I tend to favor offense. Further, Julio Jones is within striking distance of setting the record for receptions so he’s for sure in play, as is Matt Ryan. A healthy Drew Brees would be but I’m not taking the chance.

Detroit at Chicago: Another game with only pride on the line, both squads should play hard. Matthew Stafford is in play, as are his receivers. It’s hard to trust Jay Cutler with no Alshon Jeffery and with Matt Forte nicked up, even if he plays he’s a risk to see limited action – which puts Jeremy Langford in play.

Washington at Dallas: As mentioned, don’t count on any Redskins. The Cowboys, on the other hand, won’t go easy. The problem is there’s a reason why the division is clinched, it’s not like Dallas has the firepower to go goofy. That said, Darren McFadden is a cash candidate.

Philadelphia at NY Giants: The dismissal of Chip Kelly puts an interesting twist to this game. I’m not doing it in cash but I can see DeMarco Murray going off so I’ll throw him into a GPP roster. Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. are in play big-time. No doubt the Eagles will show up to play but if the Giants get up early, it could be a long day.

Seattle at Arizona: Home field advantage for the Cardinals is on the line but I’m not sure that’s enough to trust using Carson Palmer and especially David Johnson in cash. Johnson has emerged as an integral component for Arizona thus it would be foolish to risk injury. As much as Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin have been in sync lately, that’s a tough matchup for cash play.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: The top seed is not yet in hand so the Panthers will play to win but could rest Cam Newton if they can get a sufficient lead. An interesting side-bar is Doug Martin is within striking distance of the rushing title and could be force-fed the rock. I’ll throw Martin into a GPP or two but in general will fade this encounter.

St. Louis at San Francisco: Really nothing to see here except Tre Mason if Todd Gurley is out. Even if Gurley is active, I can’t imagine the Rams risking further damage to their foundation.

Minnesota at Green Bay: Both squads are in the playoffs but the winner takes the division while the lower captures a wild card. There’s a narrative floating around that whoever loses avoids Seattle. I don’t see Minnesota playing to lose at home – and I don’t see Aaron Rodgers ever playing to lose. Actually, I’m naïve and don’t feel anyone will play to lose. The pundits like Eddie Lacy this week but I can’t go there in cash. Making things really interesting is Adrian Peterson will know exactly what he needs to win the rushing title. Here’s where game flow could be in lockstep with personal goals as the best chance the Vikings have is to keep giving the pigskin to All Day (or in this case, All Night). He’s pricey but I’ll have decent exposure to Peterson.

And now the final look at the guys I’m considering for cash play.

KEY:

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR FANDUEL CASH GAMES

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR DRAFTKINGS CASH GAMES