Heading into September, rotations are going to be in flux as teams call up their prospects to kick the wheels on the shiny new toys. We have a good mix of plug them in and forget about them in the top tier, and a good slate of useful starting pitchers in the second tier. Of course, some of those SPs in the middle group are only good as a streaming option for one of their two trips to the hill. Plenty of pitchers to avoid in the bottom tier once again, as has been the case all season long.
Please realize that these articles feature most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher listed here as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, apologies but this article is meant to provide analysis, it is up to the manager to set the lineups or rotations.
| Start 'em If You Own 'em |
|
Starting Pitcher | First Start/Opponent/Date | Second Start/Opponent/Date |
Jake Arrieta CHC | @ PIT Chad Kuhl | vs. MIL Matt Garza |
| Mon 9/4 4:05 PM ET | Sat 9/9 4:05 PM ET |
Carlos Martinez STL | @ SD Luis Perdomo | vs. PIT Chad Kuhl |
| Mon 9/4 4:40 PM ET | Sat 9/9 7:15 PM ET |
Gio Gonzalez WAS | @ MIA Odrisamer Deaigne | vs. PHI Ben Lively |
| Tue 9/5 7:10 PM ET | Sun 9/10 1:35 PM ET |
Dallas Keuchel HOU | @ SEA Erasmo Ramirez | @ OAK Kendall Graveman |
| Mon 9/4 6:40 PM ET | Sun 9/10 4:05 PM ET |
@ MIA Adam Conley | vs. PHI TBA | |
| Mon 9/4 7:10 PM ET | Sat 9/9 7:05 PM ET |
Dylan Bundy BAL | vs. NYY Jaime Garcia | @ CLE Trevor Bauer |
| Mon 9/4 2:05 PM ET | Sun 9/10 8:05 PM ET |
Trevor Bauer CLE | @ CHW James Shields | vs. BAL Dylan Bundy |
| Mon 9/4 2:10 PM ET | Sun 9/10 8:05 PM ET |
Robbie Ray ARI | @ LAD Hyun-Jin Ryu | vs. SD Travis Wood |
| Mon 9/4 8:10 PM ET | Sun 9/10 4:10 PM ET |
Rick Porcello BOS | vs. TOR J.A. Happ | vs. TB Alex Cobb |
| Mon 9/4 7:10 PM ET | Sun 9/10 1:35 PM ET |
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD | vs. ARI Robbie Ray | vs. COL Chad Bettis |
| Mon 9/4 8:10 PM ET | Sun 9/10 4:10 PM ET |
Alex Cobb TB | vs. MIN Jose Berrios | @ BOS Rick Porcello |
| Mon 9/4 7:10 PM ET | Sun 9/10 1:35 PM ET |
The 11 starters that make up this week’s top tier are most familiar faces, with the exception of Bundy and Bauer, who conveniently face one another at the end of the scoring period in Cleveland. Porcello and Cobb are another pair of opposing hurlers that take the mound against one another in their second starts of Week 23. Some fantasy players want to avoid starting both SPs going in a game, but with top notch pitchers, it may be suggested to toss that idea to the curb. There is always the possibility that both pitchers will twirl gems, which is a nice bonus as the fantasy baseball season winds down.
| Maybe Yes, Maybe No |
|
Starting Pitcher | First Start/Opponent/Date | Second Start/Opponent/Date |
Erasmo Ramirez SEA | vs. HOU Dallas Keuchel | vs. LAA Troy Scribner |
| Mon 9/4 6:40 PM ET | Sun 9/10 4:10 PM ET |
Chase Anderson MIL | @ CIN Homer Bailey | @ CHC Jose Quintana |
| Mon 9/4 1:10 PM ET | Sun 9/10 2:20 PM ET |
Kendall Graveman OAK | vs. LAA Parker Bridwell | vs. HOU Dallas Keuchel |
| Tue 9/5 10:05 PM ET | Sun 9/10 4:05 PM ET |
Jake Junis KC | @ DET Artie Lewicki | vs. MIN Jose Berrios |
| Mon 9/4 1:10 PM ET | Sat 9/9 7:15 PM ET |
Adam Conley MIA | vs. WAS Stephen Strasburg | @ ATL Max Fried |
| Mon 9/4 7:10 PM ET | Sat 9/9 7:10 PM ET |
vs. MIL Zach Davies | @ NYM Rafael Montero | |
| Tue 9/5 7:10 PM ET | Sun 9/10 1:10 PM ET |
Luis Perdomo SD | vs. STL Carlos Martinez | @ ARI Zack Godley |
| Mon 9/4 4:40 PM ET | Sat 9/9 8:10 PM ET |
Jose Quintana CHC | @ PIT Ivan Nova | vs. MIL Chase Anderson |
| Tue 9/5 7:05 PM ET | Sun 9/10 2:20 PM ET |
J.A. Happ TOR | @ BOS Rick Porcello | vs. DET Artie Lewicki |
| Mon 9/4 7:10 PM ET | Sun 9/10 1:07 PM ET |
German Marquez COL | vs. SF Matt Moore | @ LAD Rich Hill |
| Mon 9/4 3:10 PM ET | Sat 9/9 9:10 PM ET |
Michael Wacha STL | @ SD Travis Wood | vs. PIT Ivan Nova |
| Tue 9/5 10:10 PM ET | Sun 9/10 2:15 PM ET |
R.A. Dickey ATL | vs. TEX Andrew Cashner | vs. MIA Odrisamer Deaigne |
| Mon 9/4 7:35 PM ET | Sun 9/10 1:35 PM ET |
Ben Lively PHI | @ NYM Jacob deGrom | @ WAS Gio Gonzalez |
| Tue 9/5 7:10 PM ET | Sun 9/10 1:35 PM ET |
Ramirez is working on a string of four consecutive quality starts (QS), where he has collected 18 Ks over 24.0 innings. He has shown good control this season, as well, posting a 2.12 BB/9 ratio in his 101.2 innings worked for Tampa Bay and Seattle. He does have to take on the Astros in his first start of the week, and his second opponent, the Angels, have rescued their season with good play lately, so there is some risk in starting him in either of his appearances.
Anderson had to have his split fingernail superglued in his last start, a six inning, two hit victory at home against the Cards, but is not expected to miss his two starts in Week 23. He is a good source of Ks (8.55 K/9 over 106.1 innings) and taking on Cincinnati in his first time to toe the rubber this coming week. The second start against the Cubs may be a good time to keep him on the bench.
Graveman has two home starts this week, which plays to his strength as a starter in 2017. Of course, taking on Houston will not be an easy task to wind up the week. An extreme groundball inducer (1.92 GB/FB ratio over his 14 starts comprising 79.1 innings), he is not much of a strikeout option but does have average control (6.35 K/9, 2.61 BB/9) that makes him a decent streaming option in Week 23.
The rookie Junis has been pitching well for the Royals, but is also on a short leash in most of his appearances, getting pulled when he experiences troubles in terms of baserunners. He provides good strikeout numbers and shows good control, making him a useful SP despite the limited innings. He gets to face the rebuilding Tigers to open the week, and his home/road splits indicate positive potential for the second start at home against the Twins.
Conley has been a solid mound presence since the All-Star break, although he has stumbled a couple of times since mid-July. He does get Washington at home but he has struggled most at Marlins Park, with a home ERA of 7.65 as opposed to a road ERA of 2.89, which is odd considering that the Marlins home park is generally considered pitcher-friendly. Based on his splits and the opponent, his second start at Atlanta looks like the better streaming opportunity in Week 23.
Stephenson continues to have control issues, with an ugly 5.83 BB/9 rate over his 58.2 innings pitched this season, but the strikeouts are enticing (9.51 K/9). Facing the Brewers at home is risky but the road game against the Mets is the better matchup this week. Use him for the strikeouts but do not be surprised if his ultimate results hurt your team in most other statistical areas.
Perdomo has pitched solidly lately, with four QS in his last five starts. Despite a mid-90s fastball, his strikeout numbers are weak, sitting at 6.57 K/9 on the season. He relies on his outstanding ability to induce grounders, and keeps the ball in the park (3.47 GB/FB rate, 0.94 HR/9). The best time to use him this week is at home against the Cardinals, and he should be sat when he takes the ball on the road against the Diamondbacks.
Quintana has been inconsistent since joining the Cubs, pitching well, then getting shelled. He is coming off a home QS against the Pirates, who he faces on the road to start this coming week. The second start against the Brewers carries more risk due to the opponent. His ability to miss bats makes him a valuable option with the right matchup, such as the offensively-starved Pirates.
Happ pitched a gem in his last outing, giving up just four hits and a single earned run to the Red Sox, but the two prior starts were a different story, where he yielded five runs in each game. His control needs work (3.01 BB/9 in 20 starts this season), but he does provide Ks for his owners at a decent rate of 8.71 K/9. His second start against the Tigers looks like the better start to use him this week, sitting him when the Blue Jays head to Boston.
Marquez gets to open his week with a home start against the weak Giants offense, which is a positive for him and his owners. The road game against the Dodgers poses more potential trouble for the Rockies’ young righty. He is a good source of Ks with adequate control, as witnessed by his 8.57 K/9 and 2.81 BB/9 ratios.
Wacha got his season back on track with a road victory against the Giants, after allowing 17 runs over his prior 18.1 innings. He is a decent strikeout artist with an 8.40 K/9, and induces a good share of groundballs (1.89 GB/FB in his 25 starts). He has a good opponent in both his starts, as he faces the Padres and Pirates this week. It is his recent struggles that make him a risky SP to trust, however, in Week 23.
Dickey is a better home pitcher this season, and fortunately, has two home starts in this scoring period. His ability to miss bats is weak (6.71 K/9 in 26 starts) and his 4.77 FIP hints that some regression is due to come his way, but he still offers some utility against the proper opponents, such as the .500 Rangers and the sub-.500 Marlins.
Lively has tossed seven QS in his 10 starts in his rookie season. He is not much for strikeouts, posting an atrocious 5.13 K/9 rate. His second start is against the Nationals, which poses some risk, but the first start against the Mets is a consideration for streaming purposes.
| Not On My Roster |
|
Starting Pitcher | First Start/Opponent/Date | Second Start/Opponent/Date |
Jose Berrios MIN | @ TB Alex Cobb | @ KC Jake Junis |
| Mon 9/4 7:10 PM ET | Sat 9/9 7:15 PM ET |
Jason Vargas KC | @ DET Matthew Boyd | vs. MIN Bartolo Colon |
| Tue 9/5 7:10 PM ET | Sun 9/10 2:15 PM ET |
Jaime Garcia NYY | @ BAL Dylan Bundy | @ TEX Andrew Cashner |
| Mon 9/4 2:05 PM ET | Sun 9/10 3:05 PM ET |
Andrew Cashner TEX | @ ATL R.A. Dickey | vs. NYY Jaime Garcia |
| Mon 9/4 7:35 PM ET | Sun 9/10 3:05 PM ET |
Chad Bettis COL | vs. SF Ty Blach | @ LAD Hyun-Jin Ryu |
| Tue 9/5 8:40 PM ET | Sun 9/10 4:10 PM ET |
Chad Kuhl PIT | vs. CHC Jake Arrieta | @ STL Carlos Martinez |
| Mon 9/4 4:05 PM ET | Sat 9/9 7:15 PM ET |
James Shields CHW | vs. CLE Trevor Bauer | vs. SF Chris Stratton |
| Mon 9/4 2:10 PM ET | Sat 9/9 7:10 PM ET |
Reynaldo Lopez CHW | vs. CLE Ryan Merritt | vs. SF Jeff Samardzija |
| Tue 9/5 8:10 PM ET | Sun 9/10 2:10 PM ET |
Rafael Montero NYM | vs. PHI TBA | vs. CIN Robert Stephenson |
| Mon 9/4 1:10 PM ET | Sun 9/10 1:10 PM ET |
Bartolo Colon MIN | @ TB Jake Odorizzi | @ KC Jason Vargas |
| Tue 9/5 7:10 PM ET | Sun 9/10 2:15 PM ET |
Homer Bailey CIN | vs. MIL Chase Anderson | @ NYM Chris Flexen |
| Mon 9/4 1:10 PM ET | Sat 9/9 7:10 PM ET |
Travis Wood SD | vs. STL Michael Wacha | @ ARI Robbie Ray |
| Tue 9/5 10:10 PM ET | Sun 9/10 4:10 PM ET |
Troy Scribner LAA | @ OAK Chris Smith | @ SEA Erasmo Ramirez |
| Mon 9/4 4:05 PM ET | Sun 9/10 4:10 PM ET |
Chris Smith OAK | vs. LAA Troy Scribner | vs. HOU Charlie Morton |
| Mon 9/4 4:05 PM ET | Sat 9/9 4:05 PM ET |
Artie Lewicki DET | vs. KC Jake Junis | @ TOR J.A. Happ |
| Mon 9/4 1:10 PM ET | Sun 9/10 1:07 PM ET |
Odrisamer Deaigne MIA | vs. WAS Gio Gonzalez | @ ATL R.A. Dickey |
| Tue 9/5 7:10 PM ET | Sun 9/10 1:35 PM ET |
These are the pitchers to avoid this week. Berrios would be considered a middle tier SP this week if both his starts were not on the road, but his home/road splits indicate that he should be avoided in Week 23. None of the other pitchers dwelling in the lowest tier have much potential to provide fantasy goodness.
Please note that the Fantasy Alarm Forums are now open for your use, to ask questions or provide your own commentary and wisdom. I enjoy responding to comments, or if you do not want to put your question out for public consumption, feel free to write me at ia@fantasyalarm.com for a more personal response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better my response will be suited to your individual situation. I am open to questions about issues apart from starting pitching, too, as I play fantasy sports as well as serve as an analyst. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.