Every trade made on July 31st, 2015 is broken down in this piece. The deals. The fantasy outlook. Ray Flowers, that’s me, gives you all the data.
Here’s a link to the 2014 MLB Trade Deadline article.
Giants receive: RHP Mike Leake
Reds receive: 1B Adam Duvall and RHP Keury Mella.
“We’ve followed him since college,” said Giants’ GM Bobby Evans when referring to Leake. “We felt he would slot right in and give us an opportunity to get deeper into games.” Leake becomes a free agent at the end of the year, but he was born in California (San Diego) so the team is hopeful of working something out. As for his skills, Leake is a solid arm. On the year he has a 3.56 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 21 starts. His road ERA this year is 2.28 with a 0.86 WHIP, and there is zero doubt that the move from Cincy to San Francisco should be a huge boost to his outlook as the park in SF is undoubtedly a pitcher’s haven. Leake doesn’t strike guys out with a 5.93 K/9 mark, but his outlook does improve slightly with this move.
To make room for Leake in the rotation the Giants have removed Tim Hudson. One problem with making Hudson a reliever is that he often takes a long while to warm up which could preclude him from having success in that role.
Duvall is a masher of the baseball. In 91 games at Triple-A last season he hit .298 with 27 homers and 90 RBis. This season in 100 games at Triple-A he’s hit .281 with 26 homers and 80 RBIs. Not much more for him to prove really. He’s spent the majority of his career at third base, Todd Frazier is there, so perhaps he will be used in the outfield if the Reds do indeed deal Jay Bruce has been rumored.
Mella is 21 and the guy has a bright future. He has a 3.31 ERA and 83 strikeouts in 81.2 innings at High-A ball this season.
For a video break down with the words of Giants GM Bobby Evans.
Orioles receive: Gerardo Parra
Brewers receive: Zach Davies
Parra has been nutso good. How good? He’s third in baseball in batting average since April 25th behind only Paul Goldschmidt and Jason Kipnis. He has a current 14-game hitting streak during which time he’s hit .460 with a .720 SLG. Parra was also third amongst NL outfielders in OPS at the time of the deal (.886 behind only Bryce Harper 1.153 and Giancarlo Stanton .952). Don’t really know where this level of contribution is coming from, but it’s been three full months of crushing it. Still, it's exceedingly difficult to imagine him hitting like this over the final two months. Is he really a superstar with the bat in his hands? The Orioles designated Bud Norris for assignment to open up a roster spot.
Davies is a 22 year old who has 84 strikeouts and a 2.84 ERA this season at Triple-A. He profiles as a 4/5 big league starter and could get a shot to replace the recently dealt Mike Fiers at some point. For now he heads to Triple-A while Tyler Thornberg will be recalled from Triple-A.
Cardinals Receive: Jonathan Broxton
Brewers Receive: Malik Collymore
Broxton, the second reliever added of late by the Cardinals (Steve Cishek), will help to set up for Trevor Rosenthal. Broxton has a 5.55 ERA and is no threat to Rosenthal, but he does have a solid 49/12 K-to-BB ratio. He’s just an NL-only arm.
Collymore is 20 years old and is playing rookie ball. He’s hitting a mere .216 and isn’t thought of as a guy who is going to develop into much of anything.
Blue Jays Receive: Mark Lowe
Mariners Receive: Nick Wells, Jake Brentz, Rob Rasmussen
A 32 year old righty, Lowe has been en feugo this year. Over 36 innings Lowe has 47 punchouts and just 11 walks leading to a 1.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Solid 1.29 GB/FB ratio which is odd for him since he’s usually way more of a fly ball arm which could spell some doom in the Rogers Centre.
Wells has 66.2 innings of professional work. He has a 5.26 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and a 6.6 K/9 mark.
Brentz has 69.1 innings of professional work. He has a 4.80 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 7.5 K/9.
Rasmusssen is 26 years old and has made 11 big league outings. He’s 5’10”, 170 lbs, and owns a 3.72 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over 517.2 minor league innings. That 1.96 K/BB ratio isn’t impressive.
Twins Receive: Kevin Jepsen
Rays Receive: RHPs Chih-Wei Hu and Alexis Tapia
Jepsen is a 31 year old bullpen arm, a depth add for the Twins. He’s lost five games this season, but he has a 2.81 ERA, had walked just 1.70 batters per nine as well, but that 1.30 WHIP and 4.32 BB/9 ratio paint him as someone to continue to ignore in fantasy leagues.
Hu has a 16-5 record with a 1.02 WHIP over 198.1 innings. He’s only made one start above High-A ball. Hu was a Florida State League All-Star.
Tapia has a 2.94 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 122.1 innings. He’s yet to throw a pitch above High-A ball.
Athletics Receive: Felix Doubront
Blue Jays Receive: Cash considerations
Doubront is a 27 year old lefty who has made 77 big league starts. His K/9 rate has caved, he’s punching out about 5.5 batters per nine, and despite only five walks in 22.2 innings this season, he’s long struggled with his walk rate (3.87 per nine). He’s not even AL-only worthy.
Cubs Receive: Tommy Hunter
Receive:
According to Ken Rosenthal.
The 29 year old reliever has been a solid arm the last three seasons with a 3.05 ERA, and a 1.06 WHIP. Only 6.81 strikeouts per nine but he helps limit the damage with a mere 1.74 BB/9.
Red Sox Receive: Ryan Cook
Athletics Receive: Player to be Named Later
A one time bullpen star, Cook has faded from relevance. Injures have been a big issue of late, and the last three months at Triple-A he has a 4.76 ERA with only 21 strikeouts and 12 walks over 28.1 innings.
Cook has been in the minors for most of this year after struggling early. In last three months in AAA, 4.76 ERA, 21 Ks, 12 BBs in 28.1 IP.
Mariners Receive: Adrian Sampson
Pirates Receive: J.A. Happ
Sampson is 24-23 in the minors. He’s made 21 starts this season at Triple-A with middling results (8-8, 3.98 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 6.9 K/9).
Happ is junktastic. He’s made 21 appearances, 20 starts, with a 6.79 K/9, 2.65 BB/9, 4.64 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He can start or work out of the pen, but there’s simply no redeeming qualities with his left arm.
Marlins Receive: C Tomas Telis, LHP Cody Ege
Rangers Receive: Sam Dyson
Telis is just 5’8”, but he’s a big guy who weighs 210 lbs. He’s made 24 appearances the last two seasons with a .534 OPS. His minor league numbers are better but far from outstanding (.291/.325/.400).
Ege is a lefty with a 2.29 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 137.2 professional innigns (only 31.2 above Single-A). He’s struck out 11.6 batters per nine with a solid 2.9 walk rate per nine.
Dyson has thrown 97.2 innings in the big leagues with a 3.87 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. He also owns a 2.05 K/BB ratio.
Cubs Receive: Dan Haren
Receive: SS Elliott Soto and RHP Ivan Pineyro
Haren can’t get to California can he? Haren has been really solid this year though. He might only be 7-7, but he own solid ratios (3.42 ERA, 1.09 WHIP), is a veteran, and he takes the ball every five days. A perfect veteran addition. At the same time, the wind can blow out at Wrigley, and with his gopheritis (1.47 HR/9 this year, a third time in four years that the mark has been at least 1.40) this isn’t an improvement in terms of his fantasy outlook. In fact, this is a downgrade for Haren who had pitched very well at home this season (2.71 ERA, 1.10 WHIP). At least he doesn’t beat himself as he’s working on a 4th straight season with a walk rate under 1.95 per nine.
Soto has appeared in 499 minor league games, just 29 at Triple-A, hitting .252 with a .632 OPS. He has no power, seven homers, and little speed (26 thefts). Pineyro has thrown 419.2 innings with a 23-23 record. His K/9 rate is 8.1 and his BB/9 rate is 2.6.
Blue Jays Receive: Ben Revere
Receive: Jimmy Cordero & Alberto Tirado
The Blue Jays are going for broke.
In 2013 Revere hit .305. Last year he hit .306. This season he’s batting .298. He stole 49 bags last season and has 24 this season. Revere is batting a robust .320 with a .355 OBP against righties, but he really doesn’t do much at all against lefties (.234/.273/.287). according to Mike Wilner – “Revere would step in to #Bluejays vacant leadoff spot and take over in LF.” At the same time, there's another report suggesting that Revere will hit at the bottom of the order. Hitting at the top of that lineup, Revere would be able to pile up the runs as the leadoff man for the best offense in the game. Hitting at the bottom of the order would certianly limit his outlook a bit. He’s still a stupendous add for runs, batting average and steals in AL-only leagues.
Cordero has thrown 126.1 big league innings. He has a 3.78 ERA, 1,49 WHIP and 129 strikeouts. He’s also the owner of a 4.9 BB/9 rate.
Tirado was rated the 74th best prospect in baseball in 2014 according to Baseball Prospectus. He’s yet to throw a pitch over High-A ball and owns a 3.23 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. His walk rate is a concern (5.1 per nine).
Mets Receive: Yoenis Cespedes
Receive: Michael Fulmer, Luis Cessa
Cespedes has a nice power bat, but a somewhat less than ideal offensive game. Yoenis is batting .293. Can he hold on to that? The last two seasons he was a .250 hitter with a .285 BABIP. This year his BABIP is .331. His already poor walk rate is down even further this season (4.4 percent) leading to a 0.22 BB/K rate. Not good. His .323 OBP is basically league average. The power is legit though with 18 homers, 61 RBIs and 62 runs scored. Those numbers should continue to be amongst the best in the outfield in baseball. He doesn’t run any more though. He’s been successful on three of seven steal attempts.
The Mets park (CitiField) ain’t a great place to hit, and that’s not exactly an overly exciting lineup. Question – where does Michael Cuddyer play when he returns? Guess they will worry about that when it becomes an issue.
Fulmer was a first round selection in 2011 and at one point Baseball Prospectus had him ranked as a top-100 prospect (2013). He’s worked only 16 starts above A-ball, but he’s posted a 2.42 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and 8.5 Ks per nine. Still looking to develop a third pitch but he's got the look of a future starter, no doubt.
Cessa is 31-27 in his career with a 3.50 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 476 innings. He’s thrown 24.1 innings at the Triple-A level.
Pirates Receive: Michael Morse
Dodgers Receive: Jose Tabata and cash
Morse has been dreadful this season. With the Marlins he hit .213 with four homers in 160 at-bats. He was dealt to the Dodgers in the huge 13-player deal. The Dodgers had no need for him so he was moved yet again. Morse is a year removed from a .279-16-61 effort with the Giants (438 at-bats), but he’s been hurt and looked nothing like that player this season.
Tabata is just short of his 27th birthday, and he’s been effective when used this season by the Pirates hitting .289 with a .341 OBP. He is the owner of a .275 career batting average with a passable .336 OBP over the course of 509 big league games. He’s nothing to worry about in fantasy.
A RECORD?
According to MLB (from Anthony McCarron) " there were 43 trades from June 1-July 31, six more than same period last year and most in any year since at least 1997."
PADRES DO NOTHING
We all thought that the Padres might trade Craig Kimbrel, Tyson Ross or Justin Upton. In fact, many thoughts at least two, if not all three, would be dealt. None was dealt. The Padres are eight games out of first in the NL West and they are 7.5 game behind the Pirates who are the top of the NL Wild Card chase.
Kimbrel’s overall numbers are a bit down, but over his last 26.2 innings he has a 1.01 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 12.49 strikeouts per nine. Overall he’s 30-for-31 in save chances with a 2.68 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 12.50 strikeouts per nine. Not many guys could have those numbers and be viewed as slightly disappointed. He’s shockingly good.
Ross had a 2.81 ERA and 1.21 WHIP for the Padres last season with 195 strikeouts in 195.2 innings. This season he’s just 7-8 and his ratios are higher (3.38 ERA, 1.39 WHIP). At the same time his K/9 rate is up (9.66) but so are his walks (4.30 per nine). If Ross can cut the walks down, the mark was 3.31 last season, success will follow. Ross has an impressive 63 percent ground ball rate leading to a huge 3.68 GB/FB ratio. He’s also allowed four homers all season. He just doesn’t get beat deep. Doesn’t. There’s also this. Over his last eight starts he has a 9.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 2.49 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He’s pitching very well right now.
Upton has had a rough season. He started out as a star but things have gotten ugly of late (.223/.313/.335 with six homers over 218 plate appearances). Still, the soon to be free agent is on pace for 29 homers, 27 steals, 88 RBIs and 79 runs scored. That’s elite production folks. Yeah his .251 average isn’t sexy in the least, but the power/speed combo he brings to the table is still about as good as it gets. Also have to think ins average could move upwards a bit. His 18 percent line drive rate would be the first time in four seasons the mark wasn’t at least 20 percent, and his .302 BABIP is .028 points below his career mark and since his rookie season the mark has never been lower than .319.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).