There is a fine line between wanting a starting pitcher you have on your fantasy team to come back out for another inning late in a game and wanting him to stay in the dugout. If the game is tied, you probably want the pitcher to come back out so he still stands a chance of being the pitcher of record and getting a W. But if your team has issues in the ratio categories, you might prefer your starter take a seat rather than come back out to the mound.
When to pull the starting pitcher is one of the most scrutinized decisions major league managers must make. Just ask Grady Little. There’s a balance to be struck, and whether managers can walk that fine line can have fantasy implications. Today we’ll look at which managers have been too quick with the trigger, which have been a bit too trusting with their starters, and which are finding a nice balance.
Trigger Happy
Paul Molitor – Minnesota Twins
Minnesota’s rotation ranks fourth in ERA in the young season, but their starters have averaged the fourth fewest pitches per start. To be fair to Molitor, Minnesota’s rotation ranked dead last in ERA last year, so you could forgive him for being gun shy about relying on his starters. And the staff ranks 28th in xFIP, so they have not been nearly as good as their ERA would indicate.
If you have any exposure to Minnesota starters, it is likely limited to Ervin Santana with Hector Santiago and Phil Hughes perhaps being spot start options in deep enough leagues. On the plus side, Molitor’s quick hook is a safeguard against one of these guys taking a blowtorch to your ratios. But their upside is limited, which might matter more to DFS players than streamers.
Santana is the only truly fantasy relevant arm now, and Molitor pulled him with only 87 and 91 pitches on his arm in his first two outings with only one or no earned runs on his card at the time he was pulled. That plus Santana’s 3.78 xFIP make him someone to be wary of going forward.
Jose Berrios will also see his ownership levels rise whenever he gets the call up. Berrios averaged just 81 pitches per start last season, so there’s no reason not to think the Twins will continue to manage him carefully.
Too Trusting
Bruce Bochy – San Francisco Giants
The Giants currently rank third in average pitches per start, which is exactly where they finished in that stat last season. But the Giants currently rank 23rd in ERA among starting rotations, whereas they finished fifth in ERA last year. Matt Moore and Jeff Samardzija have ERAs of 4.25 and 6.16, but they’re both averaging at least six innings per start through three games started.
Again, this can be viewed as good or bad depending on what you’re looking for. Samardzija has racked up 24 strikeouts in 19 innings, but he’s been one of the more damaging ERA pitchers in the early going. For DFS players, Giants starters have upside since they’ll be given a longer leash, but they’re still risky cash game plays.
For seasonal owners, those extra innings may allow Giant starters to pick up a few extra wins, but the ratio risk is real. If one of San Francisco’s starters rips off a good stretch of starts, you might consider flipping them for safer ratio options if you’re set up well in counting categories.
Walking the Line
Terry Francona – Cleveland Indians
John Farrell – Boston Red Sox
Past and present Boston managers share a similar experience so far this season. Their rotations rank 28th and 30th in ERA to date, yet they rank 10th and 11th in average number of pitches per start. At first blush it would seem that Francona and Farrell have been hanging their starters out to dry, but it’s more a case of these managers knowing what they really have.
The Boston and Cleveland rotations currently rank first and second in strikeout rate, and they rank second and eighth in xFIP. The Indians have the highest HR/FB rate allowed so far, and the Red Sox have the fifth highest HR/FB rate. We’re still well within the early portion of the season where even team statistics can be skewed by small sample sizes. These rotations are full of stud names that are striking out batters at a very high clip. Once a bit of tough luck evens out, their ERAs will even out and the high number of pitches thrown per start will be justified.
It’s no secret that small sample sizes are a massive caveat at this point in the season, but it’s worth noting that these managers have not overreacted. Given all the complaining we do about the mistakes managers make, let’s give them some credit when they get it right.