MLB Managerial Tendencies: New Faces in the Dugout

The impact a manager can have on his team’s performance has long been a topic of debate. There are obviously the in-game decisions a manager makes, though it can be difficult to quantify those decisions in runs and wins. And anyone arguing for a manager having a significant impact will argue their management of players in the clubhouse is just as important, if not more so, than their management of players on the playing field. The quality of a manager’s performance in that regard is even more difficult to quantify, if not impossible.

As it relates to fantasy baseball, a manager’s impact can be a bit clearer. Is the manager more aggressive on the base paths? Does the manager have a quicker hook with his starters? Will the manager stick with a struggling closer? 

That said, it’s not as if the answers to those questions are cut and dry. The talent on a team can dictate how a manager operates. Different personnel could be the cause of fewer stolen base attempts, not necessarily managerial approach. A season in which the manager had a rock solid closer won’t tell you much about what he’ll do with a weaker bullpen.

Each Monday over the next six months we’ll analyze managerial tendencies and try to find answers to these kinds of questions and try to identify actionable trends fantasy owners can capitalize on. To start the season, we’ll look at two managers with limited major league experience and are new to their respective teams this season.

Torey Lovullo – Arizona Diamondbacks

This is Lovullo’s first full-time gig as an MLB manager. He has an extensive minor league managerial background as he spent about a decade as a minor league manager in Cleveland’s system. But his MLB experience is limited to four seasons as Boston’s bench coach and a 49-game stint as Boston’s interim manager in 2015 when John Farrell was undergoing chemotherapy. 

While 49 games is a very small sample size, the sample does provide the opportunity to compare Lovullo to another manager who managed more or less the same group of players.

On the base paths, Lovullo let base runners have more freedom than Farrell. Under Farrell the 2015 Sox averaged .55 steal attempts per game, but under Lovullo they averaged .73 steal attempts per game. Again, it’s a small sample size, but that’s encouraging news for owners of A.J. Pollock and especially Paul Goldschmidt. Goldy may not steal 30+ bases again this season, but age is more likely to be a speed hindrance than his manager.

Perhaps more interesting is how Lovullo managed Arizona’s bullpen. Four days before Lovullo took over for the remainder of the 2015 season, Boston’s closer, Koji Uehara, suffered a season-ending injury. Without the team’s regular closer, four different relievers registered a save under Lovullo. 

Arizona’s bullpen is far from settled going into the season with Fernando Rodney currently slotted into the closing role. Rodney is entering his age-40 season, and he has recorded only 41 saves combined over the last two seasons. He ranks 107^th in ERA and 112^th in FIP among qualified relievers over the last two seasons, so there’s no reason to think he’s going to be a shutdown closer Lovullo can rely on throughout the season. 

If you’re a saves speculator, keeping an eye on the D’Backs should be worth your while. Names like Jake Barrett, Silvino Bracho and Enrique Burgos should be added to your watch list if finding saves is already on your priority list.

Rick Renteria – Chicago White Sox

Renteria has one season of major league coaching experience on his resume, and it came on the other side of Chicago in 2014. Renteria was let go when the Cubs jumped on the opportunity to hire Joe Maddon when Maddon opted out of his contract with Tampa Bay. Renteria was the bench coach for the White Sox last season, and he’ll take over for Robin Ventura as the manager this season.

Like Lovullo, Renteria’s limited track record provides us with a good way to identify tendencies by comparison. Because Renteria only coached one season, we can see how he differed from the managers who managed largely the same group of players in the season before and after Renteria.

On the base paths, Renteria may be more conservative than fantasy owners would like him to be. The Cubs ranked 22^nd in stolen base opportunities under Renteria and 10^th a year later in the first year under Maddon. To be fair, Maddon had guys on the team who could run that Renteria didn’t like Dexter Fowler and Kris Bryant. But the difference in how Renteria and Maddon handled a non-prototypical base stealer like Anthony Rizzo is telling.

Under Renteria, Rizzo only attempted nine stolen bases, but a year later Rizzo attempted to steal 23 times under Maddon. That could be a problem for owners of Todd Frazier. Frazier has double-digit steals in three straight seasons, but he has a career high of 20 and only had nine steals combined in his first two full seasons. Frazier is a powerful corner infielder and not a prototypical base stealer just like Rizzo, so concern about how often Frazier gets the green light would be warranted.

Renteria could also have a negative impact on RBI opportunities for White Sox. The Cubs ranked 29^th and 26^th in the seasons before and after Renteria in the number of times a position player sacrificed. But under Renteria the Cubs ranked 16^th in that statistic. To be fair, the difference is negligible being in the range of 10-15 sacrifices per season, but it does indicate Renteria might prefer small ball, which doesn’t lend itself to the most favorable fantasy outcomes.

Finally, Renteria might not be giving fantasy owners what they’re looking for with starting pitching either. The Cubs ranked 12^th in the season before Renteria in the average number of pitches thrown per game by starters. But under Renteria the Cubs ranked 24^th in that category even though the starting staff was about a quarter of a run better per FIP in Renteria’s season. Again, the difference in raw numbers isn’t huge, but it’s nonetheless not encouraging for fantasy owners.