Of the 30 current major league managers, six of them were hired midseason. Offseason managerial firing’s and hiring’s are more common, but we’ve had three midseason new hires in the last two seasons. All six current managers that were hired midseason were hired between the months of May and July, so if we’re going to see a managerial change this season, it’s likely to happen within the next month or so.
Today we’ll take a look at two managers who are on the hot seat, Terry Collins and Brad Ausmus. We’ll examine how their departure could potentially impact individual players on their teams from a fantasy perspective. Both managers have had their names bandied about as potential firings, and they both have contracts that expire at the end of the season. Even if they make it through the end of the season, if they are fired in the offseason, the analysis below will potentially have some staying power.
Terry Collins – New York Mets
Even if Collins does end up getting fired, it’s possible the new manager could have some of the same tendencies. But there are some ways in which a new manager could potentially be a boon for fantasy purposes.
One of those areas is on the base paths where Collins has been very conservative. This year the Mets rank 28th in stolen base attempts even though they rank seventh in success rate. Last year they ranked 29th in attempts and 14th in success rate. The Mets don’t have a ton of obvious speed on the team, but Collins could clearly let the team run a bit more. Jose Reyes would be the biggest beneficiary of a bit more freedom on the base paths, and Curtis Granderson and Juan Lagares could get a little bump as well.
Collins leaving town might also be good for Wilmer Flores. Flores has started to see more regular playing time and a regular spot in the top half of the lineup recently, though that has more to do with Asdrubal Cabrera hitting the DL than it does with Collins recognizing Flores’ bat. Since Cabrera has been injured, Reyes has shifted to short allowing Flores more work at third.
Flores has hit much, much better than Reyes this season with a 111 wRC+ compared to Reyes’ wRC+ of 58. It’s also worth noting that Flores has been above average against same-handed pitching this season after being more a lefty-masher prior to this year. The Mets need to keep his bat in the lineup when Cabrera returns, and there’s a better chance of that happening if someone other than Collins is on the bench.
As for his pitching staff, Collins has been a bit too trusting with them this season and is hurting some ratio numbers as a result. The Mets have the ninth highest average number of pitches thrown per start, but their rotation ranks 25th in ERA.
Matt Harvey and Robert Gsellman have suffered from Collins’ trust the most. Both guys are averaging about 94 pitches per start, which is a bit higher than the league average. But both guys are getting torched the deeper they go into games as they both have an OPS+ the third time through the order of 128. Jacob deGrom and Zack Wheeler have acquitted themselves better the third time through the lineup, but Collins is making it difficult for the bottom of his rotation to have any fantasy utility, even as spot starters in deep leagues.
Brad Ausmus – Detroit Tigers
We’ve touched on Ausmus’ tendency to stick with his starters in this space before, but he’s even worse than Collins is about it. The Tigers average the third most pitches thrown per start even though they only rank 15th in staff ERA and 20th in xFIP. To be fair to Ausmus, his bullpen is awful. Their pen has the fourth worst ERA in the league and the worst xFIP, so it’s hard to blame him for not having a quick hook. What the Tigers staff really needs is a new front office that can put together a half decent bullpen.
The only real spot where playing time is up for grabs in Detroit’s lineup is center field. Andrew Romine is the guy currently on the roster who has seen the most work there this season, but he has a wRC+ of only 77. Ideally, Mikie Mahtook and Alex Presley will platoon in that spot going forward. The real key is that Mahtook gets all the work against lefties due to his career 125 wRC+ against them. And for what it’s worth, Presley has hit right-handers better for his career than Romine has, but Mahtook getting more work is what we’re after.
There’s nothing else obvious that stands out about Ausmus’ management from a fantasy perspective. He’s largely using his roster in a manner consistent with their abilities. Of the two managers discussed here, it would be more beneficial to fantasy owners to see Collins get the boot, which is a sentiment Mets fans may share.