While I have managed to take down one GPP on DraftKings and one on FanDuel up until now this season I am getting ready to make my third straight deposit on FantasyAces. For whatever reason I have finished just out of the money each night. I played my last $11 last night in a GPP where the top 50 got paid. I came in 51st (50th was 62.25 I had 62). The thing that really throws me off is the Utility spot and the ability if you feel so inclined to use two third basemen and two shortstops. I like building my fantasy team like a real baseball team. So my thought process is trying to navigate around where the best value lies when these extra options open up. So today it is back to the FantasyAces drawing board for me. Like I said, I am finishing just out of the money each night so I am on the right track.
As always, today the sites are offering three slates to play. I prefer to split my play up into the early and night slate on FanDuel where lineups lock early and will play in the all day slate on DraftKings. FantasyAces today from what I see has split their slate into two, excluding Toronto at Tampa Bay. I will split my allotted bankroll across the two slates on Aces and FanDuel and will put most of my exposure on later games in the all-day slate on DraftKings hoping that most of the people will burn out their bats in bad matchups for the sake of watching their players play early. This may sound silly but it is true. For instance, yesterday’s early Cubs game had a ton of exposure to Anthony Rizzo, Dexter Fowler, and a merriment of other assorted Cubs who all except for a pinch hit Grand Slam underperformed. I only used Jon Lester who just fell short of the win but still put up an amazing score. That is all. I saved my bats for the later games that did not have wind blowing in from center field. Although yesterday as a whole was a loss for me, the early slate was not. So a little advice, when you see an all-day slate on DraftKings with only one early game get in and fade it (unless it’s like Toronto facing John Danks or something). Why? Because if the early game turns out to be a low scoring affair you just eliminated a ton of competition who invested in the game for the sake of something to watch. Be smart and watch for this and take advantage of other people’s desire to force their money into crappy games for the sake of watching the game and getting mad at themselves for stacking it.
For a full slate I really do not like a lot of the matchups today. I find several pitchers in situations where even though they are good starting pitchers they are looking at serious blow up potential. So with a lot of games on the slate and plenty to go over I bring you todays Pitching Coach Article.
Top Cash Game Plays
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Jordan Zimmermann, Detroit Tigers
OK, I like Jordan Zimmermann. I think he is a quality SP with potential in a great matchup. I did not, however, see him starting 4-0 with 0.35 ERA, so kudos to you Zim. Today Zimmermann is facing the Twins at home in Target Field which is 11th in runs scored and 18th in HR allowed in MLB. This to me gives him a neutral park shift facing a Twins team that is striking out 22.1 percent of the time versus RHP with a low .310 wOBA and .251 home batting avg. Zimmerman in his last two games spanning 13 innings versus the Athletics and Royals has a 0.69 ERA with nine strikeouts. Although the K/9 is not the highest I find him an extremely safe play today on FanDuel and little riskier on DraftKings as he has also surrendered 14 hits over his last 13 innings with only two walks. This is one of those days where I really plan on finding value as players get rested while spending up on two stud SP on two pitcher sites in cash games.
Danger Zone
Only Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar have BVP versus Zimmerman and they are hitless in five plate appearances with one strikeout. The Twins are playing a little better as of late making the only danger I see momentum combined with the law of probability that states sooner or later starting pitchers that are pitching way above their means have to come back to earth.
Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
I find Jacob deGrom for $9,900 on FanDuel an absolute steal today facing the Giants at Citi Field which happens to be 20th in MLB in runs scored and 27th in HR allowed. All this certainly spells a more than favorable park shift. The thing about the Giants I hate is they do not strikeout a lot and also can hit RHP. As a matter of fact, the Giants are striking out only 14.1 percent of the time (30th in MLB) and have a decent .338 wOBA versus RHP while being tied for seventh in wRC+ with Cleveland at 112. To be honest, none of this scares me today versus DeGrom who has only allowed two earned runs over his first two starts spanning 11 2/3 innings versus the Braves and Phillies with nine strikeouts. I have seen him pitch more than once and trust me this kid is utterly dominant at home and benefits greatly from Matt Cain taking the mound for San Francisco to help aid in getting that ever important win on FanDuel. He is my top option today on the slate and the pitcher I will have the most exposure to.
Danger Zone
The current Giants roster is five-for-41 with 12 strikeouts and no HR or RBI of off DeGrom lifetime. Boom!
Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals (Weather risk!)
As long as the weather does not kill this I honestly believe Jaime Garcia has the potential today to be the top SP on board. Busch Stadium is 20th in MLB in runs scored so Garcia gets a positive park shift. He also is the classic tale of two cities pitcher with a home ERA of 1.70 in 2015 and 1.29 so far in 2016 while it elevates severely to 5.73 so far in 2016 on the road. Although one the road starts was in Arizona the other was versus the lowly Braves, both starts yielded poor results. The Nationals are striking out a whopping 26.4 percent versus LHP and Garcia has 29 strikeouts over his first 25 innings pitched so far this season. You see where I am going with this? The Nationals are also 20th in MLB on the road in wRC+ at 91 and are ice cold only batting .197 over the last seven days. All signs point to a great start here and Garcia should be the lowest owned of the three cash game plays. I find him a better bargain on FanDuel at $8,300 rather than DraftKings at $9,100. Regardless of price I will have exposure to Garcia today weather permitting.
Danger Zone
Although the Nationals have the potential to blow up LHP with a .369 wOBA so far in 2016 the BVP is neutral for them facing Garcia. The current Nationals roster is 23-for-82 with two home runs lifetime of off Garcia (Bryce Harper and Jason Werth). Chris Heisey is also six-for-21 with six XBH. None of this I find terribly scary. Did I also mention Garcia has a 58.7 percent ground ball rate?
Sometimes good things come in pairs (Cash and GPP).
Keep in mind the pitchers in this section are better GPP plays on FanDuel and what I consider the best cash game plays to pair with one of the pitchers above on DraftKings and other two-pitcher sites.
Joe Ross, Washington Nationals (Weather risk!)
On the opposite side of Jaime Garcia today is Joe Ross. He benefits from the same positive park shift and has also been pitching lights out so far this season. He burned me in his last start exiting early with a blister on his finger or something but as long as he goes today I am going to have some exposure to him. I am not going to lie; the Cardinals are mashers. Although they are striking out 21.1 percent of the time versus RHP they also have a .363 wOBA. They also are 4th in wRC+ (126) at home and batting .307 over the last seven days. Ouch. Ross however has been dominant over his first three starts versus the Phillies and Marlins (twice) surrendering only one earned run over 16 2/3 innings while striking out 10 batters. He is a great GPP play on FanDuel and more than worthy of taking a look at on two pitcher sites to pair with an ace.
Danger Zone
The current Cardinals roster is one-for-12 with two RBI, four walks, three strikeouts, and no home runs. I am more worried today about hits, walks, and lack of strikeouts dragging him down on DraftKings than the actual earned runs.
Ross Stripling, Los Angeles Dodgers
First off anytime I get to use a Dodger in my lineup it makes me smile. I do bleed Dodger blue. I find it even better when it’s a SP facing the Padres. Let me share a simple DFS tip with you regarding the Padres. When they face a RHP go against them. When they face a LHP stay away. It is that simple. I swear. Although Stripling has shown a path of regression with each start I cannot think of a better matchup to turn it around. He gets one of the best parks in MLB pitching in Dodger Stadium which is currently 29th in MLB in runs scored. It also helps that the Padres are striking out 25.8 percent of the time, have a low .270 wOBA, and are 28th in wRC+ (62) versus RHP. Although his K/9 is just over five I see this elevating today with the Padres and with a price tag on DraftKings of only $6,300 and $5,750 on FantasyAces I find him irresistible. His price on FanDuel is a little high at $7,900 making him a GPP play only there.
Danger Zone
Little scares me here outside of the off chance that Wil Myers or Matt Kemp (who I wish was still a Dodger, what a stupid move) get a hold of one.
GPP plays that will make or break your wallet.
Of course anytime you take players in this section you are doing so with risk. That is why they are here and are not for the faint at heart.
Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles
How often do any of you take an Orioles SP? Think about that for a minute. Why? Easy, bad ballpark right? What would you say if I told you that Camden Yards is currently 24th in MLB in runs scored? How about if I told you Camden Yards was 17th in HR allowed, even with all the firepower? What if they had a young SP who fanned seven Rays over five innings while only allowing one earned run? Would you consider him then? Today that same young pitcher in Gausman would be facing a White Sox team in Baltimore who is striking out 18.4 percent of the time (I know it could be better) with a low .304 wOBA versus RHP. In a GPP for a low price…why not?
Danger Zone
Over the last seven days the White Sox have really picked things up offensively batting .277 with eight HR while moving into a three way tie with the Pirates and Tigers for fifth in wRC+ (130). We certainly have plenty of danger here.
Mat Latos, Chicago White Sox
Andrea LaMont. If you have never heard of her that is the Legend Lenny Melnicks girlfriend, or wife. I am not totally sure. Anyhow, she called a bounce back year for Mat Latos. I know this sounds hard to believe but it is true. So props to her and Lenny.
That little tidbit above is from last week’s article. It was also Mat Latos who won me $600 on FanDuel last Sunday when I came in first in the $2 Stolen Base single entry GPP. Now here is the thing. I play all the guys in my Pitching Coach Article between the three sites. Really. Each day I enter each of the single entry GPP’s from the $1 to the $27 across FanDuel and DraftKings and submit a different lineup in each. Then I throw out some bullets in the $2 Squeeze and $3 Moonshot that I think will be low owned to try and pay my bills. On a night when I get crazy I may waste some money in the $5 Rally as well. Anyhow, if you see me send out a Tweet after lineup lock of my lineup or a player that is doing really well with a super low ownership like Nolan Reimold last night, please do not send me nasty Tweets telling me how proud I am to show off my Fantasy Alarm logo with my lineup with no guys from the Fantasy Alarm Optimal Lineups in it. First off, I have been playing MLB DFS now for years. I do not use anyone’s lineups. TommyG’s, Tony Cincotta’s, or Jeff Man’s. Although all the mentioned are incredible DFS players I am the win on my own kind of person. Always have been. So keep your nasty Tweets to yourself and yes, I am more than proud of my Fantasy Alarm logo on FanDuel. I work hard for it like everyone else here to provide content and spend hours researching to try and help you. You think we make a lot of money writing? I make more on Baseball. I love doing this though and love representing Fantasy Alarm with that logo on the sites. So be nice because as anyone who interacts with me on social media will tell you I am always willing to share a GPP play or two with anyone who asks as long as I see it in time. Back to Mat Latos.
Latos continues to be well, un Mat Latos like. He is now 4-0 with a 0.74 ERA. The problem is he is not striking out many batters with a low 4.81 K/9. This usually spells disaster waiting in the wings especially when you have a GB/FB rate that is about even. The Orioles are striking out 22.5 percent of the time versus RHP with a pretty good .345 wOBA. The simple fact that he is facing the mighty Orioles will keep the faint at heart and wallet away making Latos a great low owned GPP play today with a ton of risk.
Danger Zone
Any player in an Orioles uniform and I am still just sitting back waiting for the implosion to occur.
Good luck today and be sure your catchers are playing as most do not if playing a day game after a night game. Saturdays and Sundays can be tough in that respect if you are new to this. I am still learning to do this excel stuff myself and promise it will get better each week. For some reason I am having a hard time getting the prices from the sites into the sheet and still am missing some SP. Today I did get 28 of them in and hope to have a nice excel sheet with prices for FanDuel, DraftKings, and FantasyAces in it tomorrow morning or by next week at the latest. Right now I am trying to put them in manually and it takes a long, long, long time. Please be patient.
| Name | Team | W | L | GB% | FB% | Hard% | K/9 | AVG | WHIP | BABIP | xFIP- | ERA |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 1 | 3 | 33.90% | 35.60% | 32.30% | 7.36 | 0.260 | 1.64 | 0.263 | 123 | 6.87 |
| Christopher Devenski | Astros | 0 | 0 | 31.40% | 40.00% | 28.60% | 7.9 | 0.234 | 0.88 | 0.294 | 78 | 0.66 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 3 | 0 | 39.50% | 34.60% | 30.50% | 4.5 | 0.263 | 1.19 | 0.288 | 119 | 2.42 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0 | 3 | 41.60% | 42.70% | 41.30% | 7.67 | 0.248 | 1.36 | 0.276 | 111 | 4.60 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 1 | 2 | 38.50% | 35.40% | 32.40% | 6.75 | 0.325 | 1.65 | 0.369 | 105 | 4.50 |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | 1 | 1 | 58.70% | 20.60% | 23.80% | 10.44 | 0.196 | 1.16 | 0.286 | 73 | 3.24 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 2 | 2 | 47.60% | 35.20% | 27.10% | 7.04 | 0.298 | 1.47 | 0.333 | 98 | 6.16 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 0 | 1 | 47.70% | 27.70% | 25.00% | 6.45 | 0.226 | 1.3 | 0.269 | 105 | 3.22 |
| Matt Cain | Giants | 0 | 2 | 34.80% | 39.10% | 28.20% | 6.86 | 0.31 | 1.67 | 0.362 | 115 | 6.43 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 1 | 0 | 40.00% | 36.70% | 41.90% | 11.12 | 0.289 | 1.59 | 0.4 | 100 | 4.76 |
| Wade Miley | Mariners | 1 | 2 | 42.50% | 32.90% | 28.00% | 7.43 | 0.34 | 1.65 | 0.394 | 96 | 7.04 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 1 | 1 | 45.30% | 33.30% | 32.90% | 7.2 | 0.26 | 1.16 | 0.292 | 88 | 4.32 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 2 | 0 | 48.60% | 31.40% | 29.70% | 6.94 | 0.283 | 1.11 | 0.351 | 75 | 1.54 |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | 2 | 0 | 50.00% | 30.40% | 13.00% | 5.4 | 0.161 | 0.84 | 0.196 | 105 | 0.54 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 0 | 1 | 45.50% | 45.50% | 27.30% | 12.6 | 0.167 | 1 | 0.273 | 91 | 1.80 |
| Colin Rea | Padres | 1 | 1 | 45.60% | 25.00% | 24.60% | 8.02 | 0.295 | 1.69 | 0.358 | 108 | 5.06 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | 1 | 3 | 39.70% | 38.20% | 31.90% | 10.36 | 0.237 | 1.15 | 0.303 | 80 | 4.07 |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 1 | 1 | 55.80% | 28.80% | 36.20% | 9.7 | 0.235 | 1.69 | 0.264 | 112 | 4.64 |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | 2 | 1 | 34.80% | 43.50% | 33.30% | 6.65 | 0.209 | 1.13 | 0.239 | 118 | 3.13 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 1 | 4 | 42.50% | 26.00% | 46.60% | 13.33 | 0.313 | 1.75 | 0.433 | 61 | 5.47 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 4 | 0 | 50.00% | 35.90% | 29.20% | 10.52 | 0.2 | 0.94 | 0.233 | 73 | 3.51 |
| Alfredo Simon | Reds | 0 | 2 | 43.60% | 35.90% | 38.50% | 11.57 | 0.431 | 3 | 0.514 | 132 | 16.39 |
| Chris Rusin | Rockies | 1 | 0 | 55.60% | 22.20% | 20.90% | 5.73 | 0.162 | 0.73 | 0.2 | 87 | 2.45 |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | 2 | 0 | 41.30% | 42.90% | 33.30% | 8.22 | 0.179 | 1.26 | 0.226 | 125 | 2.35 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 4 | 0 | 50.00% | 34.10% | 22.00% | 5.54 | 0.224 | 1.12 | 0.268 | 109 | 0.35 |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | 0 | 0 | 43.80% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 2.25 | 0.294 | 1.75 | 0.267 | 144 | 2.25 |
| Mat Latos | White Sox | 4 | 0 | 45.20% | 42.50% | 23.30% | 4.81 | 0.151 | 0.82 | 0.167 | 127 | 0.74 |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | 1 | 2 | 37.30% | 38.80% | 32.40% | 11.05 | 0.316 | 1.59 | 0.377 | 81 | 6.95 |
Go Dodgers!
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