Martin Prado is boring. You call out his name only when the other options available to you are down to the point that, well, you have to take someone. Prado is that guy, and I totally understand it. On the plus side he's in an environment in Miami that appeals to him. He's got a chance to bat second in the batting order. He also qualifies at two spots in fantasy and maybe three depending on your setup. He's also a very solid big league hitter who won't hurt you. Let's delve into Mr. Boring.
THE MINORS
2001: Signed as a free agent by the Atlanta Braves out of Venezuela.
TOTALS (2003-11): .298/.352/.390 with 15 HRs, 191 RBIs, 271 runs & 44 SBs over 500 games
THE MAJORS
As an established player I'll list his 5x5 stats and games played totals.
2006: .262-1-9-3-0 in 24 games.
2007: .288-0-2-5-0 in 28 games.
2008: .320-2-33-36-3 in 78 games.
2009: .307-11-49-64-1 in 128 games.
2010: .307-15-66-100-5 in 140 games.
2011: .260-13-57-66-4 in 129 games.
2012: .301-14-82-70-3 in 156 games.
2013: Dealt to the Diamondbacks, Prado hit .282-14-82-70-3 in 155 games.
2014: Spent time with the D'backs and Yankees. He appeared in 143 games (.282-12-58-62-3). Dealt on December 19th to the Marlins along with RHP David Phelps and cash considerations from the Yankees in exchange for RHP Nathan Eovaldi, 1B/OF Garrett Jones and RHP Domingo German.
Per 162 big league games: .291-13-70-80-6
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THE SKILLS
I admit that Prado is boring, but take a look at that per 162 game average that I just listed. Would you take that from your second baseman? Hell yes I would, and I hope the answer is the same for you. Let's add some more depth here.
Since 2006 among batters with at least 4,000 plate appearances how many can better the .291 batting average of Prado? Just 25 men.
Since 2008 among batters with 3,500 plate appearances only 20 men are better in batting average.
Since the start of the 2012 season, minimum 1,500 plate appearances, only 27 men are better.
Prado's stable in batting average having hit less than .282 just one time in his last eight seasons.
His BABIP last year was .310. His career mark is .311.
His line drive rate the last three seasons has been at least 21.9 percent.
It is a bit concerning that his walk rate of 4.5 percent in 2014 was a career-low. Also not a huge fan of an eight year high in his strikeout rate. The result was a 0.33 BB/K ratio that was roughly half his career mark of 0.61. Again his BABIP and line drive rate were the same as always, and his 1.65 GB/FB is a nearly dead on match for his mark in 2012-13 (1.63) and that mitigates some concern. It's also not like his 4.5 swinging strike percentage was out of control (career 3.9). Keep an eye on it early in the year, but for now I'm not overly nervous.
You know what you are getting in the batting average category with Prado.
Prado is no home run hitter, but he's hit at least 10 homers in 6-straight years with a low of 10 and a high of 15. A move to Marlins Park isn't going to help him at all, so set your expectations at the lower end of those six year numbers. I will point out that his HR/F ratio has been at or above his career number of 7.5 percent in five of the last six seasons which, again, speaks to his consistency.
Does Prado drive in runs? Well yeah, but not really. That's what happens when the overwhelming majority of your at-bats come from the top of the order (more on that below). He's just not ever in a run driving in type of position in the batting order. Still, should note that each of the last five seasons he's driven in at least 58 runners. The only other second baseman to have done that each year is Robinson Cano (kinda cheating I will admit since Prado didn't appear at second base in 2011, though he obviously qualified there from the previous season in nearly every league).
Does Prado score runs? He does a decent job of it. Per 162 games he's averaged 80 runs scored. At the same time, he's only hit that plateau twice (100 runs in 2010 and 81 in 2012). He has scored at least 64 runs in each of the six seasons. How many other second basemen have done that? The answer is two: Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler.
Prado does have the one season of 17 thefts in 2012 but that's the only time he's stolen more than five bases. Can't expect anything there.
So it is about what you thought with Prado. Boring. Consistent. Let me leave you with one last data point though...
Do you know how many second basemen have gone .282-10-58-62 the last three seasons? Only one other than Prado, and his name is Robinson Cano.
PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS
A big key for Prado is where he bats in the lineup. For his career he's hit second 415 times with the only other spots of more than 81 games being leadoff (141 times). The Marlins figure to role with Dee Gordon in the leadoff spot. Who hits second? It could be Prado but the Marlins might also end up slotting Christian Yelich there. If the club decides to hit Yelich third and Giancarlo fourth after Martin then the value on Prado goes up substantially. If he ends up hitting 7th... ugh.
Prado does have a huge value booster - multi-position eligibility. He appeared in 21 games at second base last year and 110 at third base. He will qualify at both spots in all leagues this season. He might also have outfield eligibility as well as he appeared in 12 games there (10 starts). Check your league rules to see if he picks up that third spot defensively.
CONCLUSION
Prado is boring. Prado is consistent. Prado is productive. Prado is also eligible at two defensive positions, maybe three, and that also enhances his value. As things currently stand, he's a solid mid level option on draft day. Interest in Prado would be elevated if we knew for certain that he would be hitting in the second spot in the Marlins revamped batting order.
10 team lg: A reserve round selection merely for his versatility. Instead of having to roster two backups, he would fill both spots (three if also outfield eligible) freeing up a valuable roster spot to be spent elsewhere.
12 team lg: A passable second base option with three key selling points. (1) He's consistent. (2) He brings a solid batting average. (3) The multi-position eligibility thing.
15 team lg: Because of the depth in this league Prado is a solid option at second base. The flexibility he brings, also being middle/corner infield eligible, is a nice value booster since the waiver-wire won't offer anywhere near the talent that shallow leagues do.
NL-only: I will throw a couple of extra bucks, or move a guy up a round or two, if he qualifies at more than one spot. When that player is cheap to begin with, I can't see why people wouldn't at least have moderate interest in him at the very least. I might even go as far to suggest that Prado would be a target of mine with the knowledge that I wouldn't have to break the bank in any meaningful way to add him.