Learning Lessons Round by Round in NFBC Style “Commentary Mock” (Part IV)
Published: Feb 17, 2014
Just want to start by saying The 2014 Baseball Guys/Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide is a must for drafting effectively. The deeper the draft goes, the more helpful the Guide becomes! Get it here: http://www.fantasyalarm.com/ray
Ok, I have already posted the first three installments of my self-critique of the slow draft NFBC style “Commentary Mock” I joined at the last minute when some modern day fantasy baseball version of “Cougar” turned in his wings and forced “Stinger” to give me my proverbial “dream shot” to go up against the best of the best. See Rounds 1-4, Rounds 5-8, and Rounds 9-12
To review, the first 12 rounds for me went as follows: 1.14 Votto; 2.2 Kipnis; 3.14 Pence; 4.2 Gordon; 5.14 Zack Grienke; 6.2 Jordan Zimmerman; 7:14 Kyle Seager; 8.2 Starlin Castro; 9.14 Victor Martinez; 10.2 Steve Cishek; 11.14 Evan Gattis; 12.2 John Axford. Four more rounds are in the books.
Lance Lynn – SP – STL - I think there are a bunch of hitters still out there so I went pitcher again. I am actually surprised Lance Lynn was still there - and now he is mine. He still throws hard, still strikes guys out, pitches on a good NL team and still has room to grow. I think Lynn is undervalued because of the 3.97 ERA. However, his FIP of 3.43 tells a different and more accurate story.
Miguel Montero – C – ARZ - I know Miguel Montero was awful last year and thanks Jesus Montero for being a bigger disappointment among catchers named Montero. However, even if Miguel reverts to a three year average performance (an average dragged down by last year's disaster), he will post 55R, 14HR, 65RBI and a .259 Avg. Those numbers are pretty good from a 2d catcher and especially important to my team with a risky C1 in Evan Gattis. I could have added a quality position player here but think there will be nothing palatable at catcher 25+ picks from now when I get to pick again. Miguel is my guy in rd 14.
Neil Walker – 2B - PIT - In the MI spot, I like to get some production but be careful to do no harm. Walker, in his age 28 season fits the bill. Will he ever fully live up to the hype? Probably not However, even including his down 2013, his three year averages are: 66R, 14 HR, 68 RBI and a .268 average. Solid, unspectacular, but most importantly does no harm. In the end, this is a case of getting small profit if he stays on the same course but with the possibility of bigger profit. His BABIP was 57 points below his 2012 number and well below his career numbers. Thus, his batting average should jump back over .270. Add that to the fact that his bb rate went up and K rate went down and there is some solid upside for 2014.
Michael Brantley – OF – CLE - Brantley is the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy baseball - he just gets no respect. He is only entering his age 27 season and has been productive. For example, last year, he posted 10 HR, 15 SB a solid .284 with 65+ runs and rbi. This pick is not sabermetric based. Rather, it is based on eyeball. Here is a good player who has room to grow and should this year. However, even if he does not grow at all, he will provide at least the round 16 price I paid. [Full disclosure – this was not a popular pick among my secret colleagues as many feel Brantley has no upside. Time will tell.]