Learn BABIP and Line Drive Rates

You hear the term “BABIP” nearly every day when you read fantasy analysis. This article will help you to understand what it means, how to understand it and which players stood out in a meaningful way. We’ll also touch on the line drive, the most important type of batted ball there is.

WHAT IS BABIP?

BABIP, also referred to as a player's hit rate, is the rate at which batted balls end up as base hits. There is a caveat with BABIP – it removes home runs from the equation because technically the ball isn't in play on a home run (it never lands in the field of play). Here is the simple formula in play for the measure we call BABIP. 

(H-HR) / (AB-K-HR+SF) 

*SF = sacrifice fly

HOW TO UNDERSTAND BABIP

1) The major-league average for BABIP is traditionally in the .290-.300 range. Last year it was .298.

(2) Players tend to establish their own level of BABIP production over the years. More pointedly, a look at a rolling three-year period – i.e. the last three years – gives a fairly accurate picture of what should be expected moving forward in most instances. That means if a guy has produced a .275 mark for three seasons and he suddenly produces a .325 mark, chances are better than even that his BABIP number will regress in the future. Conversely, if a player produced a .325 mark year after year and then slumps to .275 in the following year it doesn't always mean he will remain at that lower mark moving forward. Whether good or bad, players tend to establish a somewhat consistent pattern over the course of multiple seasons with that rolling three season timeframe suggesting a decent baseline. Note that studies have shown it often takes well over 500 plate appearances for BABIP to stabilize meaning things might not stabilize in one calendar year.

(3) A player’s BABIP can be affected by the defense. Obviously if there’s a stellar unit behind the hurler then his BABIP could be a few points lower. Conversely, if the defense is poor, the will BABIP inch upward. Same thing for hitters of course with those slight changes resulting from the defense one is hitting the ball against.

(4) The talent of the batter matters a bit. The harder a guy consistently hits the ball, the more likely it is that a few batted balls will become base hits that wouldn’t when struck by another with a lower velocity on the pelota.

(5) A player who is performing at a rate that is below his established level can be said to be hitting in a bit of "bad" luck. That's too simplistic of course, but it's a down and dirty way to look at it. A player who is performing at a rate that is above his established level can be said to be hitting in "good" luck. This is also far too simplistic, but there it is as a marker.

(6) As a general rule, any performance over .350 has to be looked at with a huge degree of skepticism as the number is extremely tough to consistently reach. Over the last three seasons, 2014-2016, here are the only men in baseball with a .350 BABIP (minimum 1,500 plate appearances). There are just 11 of them.
.369 – Paul Goldschmidt
.366 – J.D. Martinez
.360 – Christian Yelich, Starling Marte
.359 – DJ LeMahieu
.356 – Joey Votto, Lorenzo Cain
.355 – Dee Gordon, Mike Trout
.352 – Miguel Cabrera
.350 – Freddie Freeman

As you can see only four men are over .360 the last three seasons. Obviously, that means the following eight hitters, who were all over .360 last season, are in danger of a pullback in 2017 as it’s nearly an unsustainable long-term pace.
.388 – DJ LeMahieu
.380 – Starling Marte
.378 – J.D. Martinez
.373 – Jonathan Villar
.371 – Mike Trout
.370 – Freddie Freeman
.366 – Joey Votto
.363 – Cesar Hernandez

There were a bunch of others over .340 as well that have me nervous heading into 2017. Here are those 14 men with some thoughts.

Paul Goldschmidt (.358) had a 3-year low last season, and was just two points above his .356 career rate. Players set their own baselines. Remember that folks.

J.T. Realmuto (.357) has a .323 career mark, but note that over his first 137 big league games the mark was .284.
Christian Yelich (.356) has always hit the ball extremely hard. In fact, his career mark is actually higher than the rate he posted last season at .363.
Corey Seager (.355) is not exactly a speedster, and that’s a big number. He has massive talent, but that .360 mark over 725 at-bats is extremely high. #BeCautious

Jean Segura (.353) was under .300 in 2014 and 2015 and under .303 in 3-of-4 seasons heading into last year. He’s a prime candidate to regress, even with his speed.
Charlie Blackmon (.350) was above his .330 career mark. He’s been at .315 or better in 4-straight seasons.
Dexter Fowler (.350) was just off his .342 career mark. He’s posted a mark of .350 in 2-of-3 seasons.
Ian Desmond (.350) had never been better than last season. He owns a career mark of .326, a total he has reached in 4-of-5 seasons.
Odubel Herrera (.349) fits right in with the worries that were listed above. Though he still posted an excellent .349 mark last season, the rate was a stratospheric .387 in 2015.
Daniel Murphy (.348) owns a .319 mark for his career. Know the mark is the last two years? Try .313.
Jose Altuve (.347) was just slightly above his .334 career mark the last season, and the .347 mark he posted last year was the middle mark of the last three seasons.
Brandon Belt (.346) lost .017 points from 2015 and his 2016 mark was just five points above his career rate.
Danny Valencia (.346) owns a career mark of .313 but the mark has been at least .317 each of the past four seasons.
Carlos Gonzalez (.346) owns a .336 career mark. Alas, the mark was in the .280’s in 2014 and 2015. Hard to full buy into his return to greatness from last season.

Now for the hitters who struggled according to BABAIP in 2016. Here are those men with their career rate also listed.

As I’ve stated multiple times, players set their own baselines.

Guys like Bautista, Santana, Carter, EE, Franco and Cozart were pretty much the same guy last year as they always were.

Pujols last recorded a .294 mark in in 2010 in the BABIP column.

Frazier could see a significant rebound having never posted a mark below .269 prior to last season.

Tulo had posted a mark of .331 each of the previous three years. Last season was his second effort in eight years under .305.

Harper hits the ball too hard to be down in the .260’s yet again. Not possible. He was at .352 and .369 in 2014 and 2015. A big-time rebound is in the cards for this elite talent.

‘But wait Ray, doesn’t BABIP apply to pitchers as well?’ Why yes it does. Here are pitchers that were very fortunate when it came to BABIP in 2016. First is their 2016 number, then their career mark

As you can tell, the gaps with pitchers tend to be extremely small when compared to the fluctuations we see with offensive performers.

Arrieta was fortunate last season. Fortunate. Ditto his two teammates (especially Lackey).

I wrote about my concerns with Porcello in his Player Profile. You should read it. Really. Check it out.

Here are the pitchers that gave up more than their fair share of hits last season.

Ray and Pineda have better skills than the results show.

I don’t think Wainwright will recapture the success of his early years.

Rodon gives up more hits than you think he would.

Leake is a small rebound candidate. Ditto Gonzalez. More to it than just WHIP of course.

LINE DRIVE BASELINES

The league line drive rate in 2016 was 20.5 percent.

A mark over 25 percent is unlikely to be repeated with great frequency. 

A mark under 18 percent deserves extra research to determine if there are no underlying skills or if 2016 was just an off year for that player.

HOW DO YOU UTILIZE LINE DRIVE RATES?

Line drive rates can be somewhat predicted by the rolling three-year trend, similar to BABIP. Note though that there isn’t an extremely high correlation with line drive rates year after year so looking at a broader swath, like the three years I suggested, is more helpful than focusing on a smaller segment of games. Also, a line drive off the bat of Billy Hamilton certainly isn’t as impactful as one of the bat of Carlos Gonzalez, so it’s not as if all line drives are created equal which adds even more uncertainty to the measure.

There’s also this key point. It stands to reason that there must be a strong relationship between line drive rates, base hits and BABIP. It makes all the sense in the world. There’s just one issue, it’s not actually completely accurate. Why is that? You already know why, we just have to put the pieces together. Not all line drives are hits. Not all hits are line drives. Therefore, a line drive rate could be high but the BABIP could be low if, for the sake of argument, the player lines 14 balls into the gloves of a defender over the course of the year. The line drive rate will suggest success while the BABIP might be lacking. Generally speaking, you can say if one mark is high and the other is low there is a chance for an evening out of both, but that’s just a general position to take and it’s no lock to actually become reality in any given season.

Here are the 2016 leaders. Note that marks over 25 percent are difficult to repeat year after year. Only a handful of players are capable of doing that (the last three years only 13 men have posted a line drive rate of 25 percent). Only 18 men in baseball reached the 24 percent plateau in 2016.

Freeman owns a massive 27.2 percent mark for his career. Massive.

Blackmon is at 24.4 percent for his career, just a half point behind the 24.9 mark for Belt.

Votto is at 25.5 percent for his career.

Pagan is at 22.6 for his career. His back is always an issue too.

Prado owns a mere 21.3 percent mark. He has only one season in his 11 years above 23.2 percent (last year).

Hernandez owns a 24.4 percent mark for his career, the same total he posted last year.

Polanco is a true question mark to repeat. His marks the first two years of his career were 19.1 and 19.7 percent.

Just as the men who are over the top off the charts high have concerns, so do the men at the other end of the spectrum. Here are the men who struggled to hit the ball on the screws last season.

In five years Frazier was never below 18.1 percent before last season.

In four seasons Dozier was never under 19.9 percent before last season.

Hosmer owns a 19.6 percent mark for his career. His rate was terrible last season at 16.5 percent. What’s his mark the last two years? Try on 20.1 percent. Sample size folks.

Davis posted a mark of 17.2 percent last in 2015, virtually identical to last year.

Harper was 3.5 points below his career level last season.

Odor’s 17.6 percent mark last season... was a career best. His career level is a tremendously low 15.9 percent. Something to keep in the back of your mind when you want to call out his name on draft day.

Here are the hurlers who posted the lowest line drive rates against from 2016.

Pomeranz missed his career rate of 19.0 percent by 2.4. Big gap.

C-Mart had a four-year low last season, well below his 19.3 percent career mark.

Pretty much the same with Archer who has a career mark of 19.8 percent.

Verlander owns a 20.1 percent career mark. Last year was the first time in five years the mark was under 19.8.

Here are the hurlers who were hit pretty darn hard last season.

Fiers wasn’t that far off his career mark actually. It’s 24.1 percent.

Gray was at 24.5 percent last year, three tenths off his 24.8 percent mark as a rookie.

Lackey’s line drive mark doesn’t “match” his line drive rate. The 22.7 percent rate he posted was also his highest since 2003.

Price throws a lot of strikes, and gets hit a good deal. He’s been at 21.7 or higher in 3-of-4 seasons.

BABIP and line drive rates are part of the story. They help to paint this picture but they certainly aren’t definitive when it comes to analyzing player performance.