What the heck is going on here? Has the fantasy baseball world gone mad? Facebook, Twitter – they’re all jammed up with these posts about trading Trevor Story. What’s wrong with you people? I even saw some guy post a photo of a Trevor Story trade offer he made and posted on Instagram. Are we not finally past the point where our skepticism is overridden by our increasing affectation for rookies and wunderkinds? Where’s all the rookie love?
Through the first three games of the regular season, the 23-year old Rockies shortstop is batting .286 with four home runs and seven RBI. Not only does he lead all rookies there, but he’s also tied for the league lead with another middle infielder…some guy who happens to go by the name of Robinson Cano. I mean, come on. You can’t tell me that if Story puts up Cano-like numbers that he won’t be one of the most highly-coveted players in the fantasy baseball realm, right?
Take a look at those minor league numbers, people. The strikeout rate is a little high and the loss in walk rate during his jump from Double to Triple-A isn’t something you like to see, but aren’t we in an age where we don’t mind the big strikeouts so long as they come with big power? Chris Davis? Kris Bryant? Joc Pederson? Look at Story’s ISO (isolated power) numbers. Who cares if he’s fanning once every 3.48 at-bats. His full-year ISO numbers have been in the .200 range for the last two seasons while he’s been fast-tracked through the Rockies system. They don’t just fast-track anyone, you know.
And let’s not forget about the fact that he plays for the Rockies. Haven’t you heard of a little something called “Ballpark Factors?” Coors Field is one of the most hitter-friendly parks out there and tons of players have moved through Colorado and proven exactly that. Go look at the splits for Carlos Gonzalez or Corey Dickerson. Or how about Troy Tulowitzki? At least when he’s healthy, that is. Remember Dante Bichette? Vinny Castilla? Andres Gallarraga? You want to get rid of Story now?
The skeptics and the naysayers will turn around and cite sample size to you, but come on. They’re just using it as a tactic in trade negotiations. These are the same people who will tell you that Carlos Correa’s lack of a track record is irrelevant; that he’s still a first round draft choice despite not having played in the majors for a full season. Maybe Correa’s plate discipline in the minors looked a little better, but if ISO numbers had jocks, Correa’s couldn’t hold Story’s. Why is Correa considered the next Mike Trout but Story isn’t the next Bryce Harper? Are you ready to trade Correa? How about Harper?
There’s a difference between selling high and selling while you’re high, people. I’d love to get my lungs wrapped around that sexy Indica stash you people shopping Trevor Story have been smoking. What are you afraid of? That he’s nothing more than Chris Shelton or Bryan LaHair? Come on. Really? Or maybe you’re worried that he’s going to end up like another famous Rockies shortstop – Clint Barmes? Well that’s just silly. Everyone knows Barmes was going to continue hitting in the .400 range had it not been for Todd Helton. But not to worry. The Rockies have certainly learned their lesson from that incident and no one is going to have Story shlepping a bunch of deer meat up two flights of stairs.
Still a naysayer? Still looking to part with what could be MLB’s next big thing and the fantasy baseball community’s 2016 crowned prince of homers? Well then it all comes down to return value, right? If you’re going to give up the current major league-leading home run hitter, a guy who plays at a relatively thin position, then you better be getting something pretty damn snazzy in return. Obviously, your team’s needs must be identified, but you have to make sure you’re also getting back equal value with respect to fantasy contributions. Tough to judge this early in the season, especially when you see guys like Anthony Rizzo, Nolan Arenado and Buster Posey lacking in the productivity department at the moment. Any one of them, I mean, if they were hitting better, would be worth a commodity like Story. Maybe you can get one of them and have the other person throw in a shortstop replacement as well? That seems reasonable.
Again, it’s really tough to fathom why so many experts in this industry are already talking about trading Story. There are the same pundits who once told you to wait on pitching and have now drafted starting pitching early over the last two years. These are the same people who told you to go after proven talent over youthful upside and are now drafting guys like Correa and Corey Seager inside the first three rounds. Maybe there’s a new trend they’re all missing here. Maybe the guys who have been screaming “sample size” for all these years should finally start accepting the fact that the concept is just a myth and that there’s nothing wrong with relying on a three-game track record.
I dunno. Seems pretty easy to me. I have Story in a few leagues and the ridiculous low-ball offers are pouring in. Brad Miller and Denard Span? Come on. Didi Gregorius and Doug Fister? Really? Let’s go, people. If you want the most powerful bat through the first half-week of games, you’re going to have to do A LOT better than that.