Morales proving 2014 was a fluke highlight this Week’s Week That Was
Kendrys Morales: Kendrys Morales had a huge night Friday going 3-4 with a pair of long balls and 5 RBI. Morales has given more than the Royals could have asked for so far this season. As of Sunday (which is a little more than ¼ of the year), Morales was hitting .302 with 37 RBI and 32 runs. Two key points to make here: First, the increased walk rate and decreased strikeout rate both support continued production from Morales so have no fear, this is not a mirage. Second, there is a big time buy high opportunity here. Simply call the Morales owner in your league, tell him or her about the abysmal year Morales had in 2014 while conveniently leaving out the fact that his lost year was caused by missing spring training as a result of a botched free agency. I would make the call but team Colton and the Wolfman owns Morales in all of our AL-only or mixed leagues already. Indeed, I even own him in the league in which I commit roto-dultery and team up with ESPN’s Nate Ravitz. Bottom line – I have put my money where my mouth is when it comes to the Royals DH. You should too.
Justin Bour: Justin Bour had a solid night Friday going 2-5 with dinger. Bour is off to a good start to the 2015 season, hitting .375 with five runs, two home runs and five RBI in just 48 AB. Yes, this is a small sample size and of course, he will not hit .370 but there are good reasons for optimism. First, Michael Morse is hardly the picture of health or consistency. That means opportunity for Justin. Second, the solid 83% contact rate says he sees the ball well in the show. Third, his .306 with 18 HR in 385 AB in AAA last year says something clicked. Those in NL-only leagues should make sure Bour is not sitting on the FAAB wire. If he is, pounce.
Jeff Samardzija: Jeff Samardzija pitched like the ace he should be going 8 innings giving up 3 hits, 2 runs and 1 walk while mowing down 9. The buy low window is closing fast. On the year, the White Sox righty has a pedestrian 4.28 ERA and equally uninspiring 7.2 K rate (the K rate is not terrible but you paid for better). However, over his last two starts, Samardzija has gone 16 innings with a sweet 16/4 K/BB ratio. Given that the velocity is still at 94mph on average and the strand rate of 68 shows some bad luck, the reasons for optimism outweigh the rest. I believed at the start of the year and I still do.
Oswaldo Arcia: Oswaldo Arcia was sent out to begin a rehab assignment on Monday. Assuming all goes well, the Twins OF should return in early June. For those looking for lightning in a bottle, look no further. In the second half last year, Arcia turned around some fantasy teams all on his own by hitting 15 bombs. If you add the possibility of big time power to the fact that Arcia hit .300+ at every minor league level even when you was young for the level, you have someone you want on your team as May turns to June and it gets harder and harder to make up ground.
Tanner Roark: Tanner Roark took over the injured Doug Fister’s spot in the rotation. Good news? Let us examine. Roark outproduced all expectations in 2014 posting a 2.85 ERA over 198 2/3 innings in 31 starts. That said, I am skeptical because, among other things, Roark had a below average K rate of around 6 per 9 innings, had a BABIP 23 points below league average and had no record of minor league success that would have predicted this breakout at age 28. If you want to gamble in an NL-only league, go ahead. I think you can and will do better in your mixers.
R.A. Dickey: R.A. Dickey pitched reasonably well Friday, going the distance while giving up four runs and 5 hits while walking 2. Sell! Sell I say. Do it now! The 40 year old knuckleballer has a 5+ ERA, a woeful strikeout rate of about 4.5 per 9 innings, has given up 11 dingers in his 9 starts, has lost even more velocity and is walking more hitters despite his reduced K rate. Dickey was a great story and reinventing himself the way he did was incredible. However, good stories do not win fantasy leagues – performance does. Get value for Dickey while you still can!
Matt Shoemaker: Speaking of guys to sell, let’s talk about Matt Shoemaker. The Angles righty got pasted Thursday giving up seven runs in six innings. The numbers thus far are not pretty: 6.29 ERA, 5.79 FIP, and a lowly 38.4 percent ground ball rate. Given that Shoemaker had no minor league history of success there is more than a fair chance that his 2014 was an aberration. Moreover, when you consider that Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano are chomping at the bit in AAA, you realize that the Angels need not be patient. I wouldn’t be.
And now the moment you well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates a/k/a Schultz says: “Philadelphia Phillies fans remember all-to-well the end of the 2011 season. With Roy Halladay on the mound in Game 5 of the NLDS, the Phillies get stymied by Chris Carpenter as the Cardinals make an improbable run to the World Series title. Adding injury to insult, the game ends with Ryan Howard blowing out his Achilles tendon as he makes the last out of the series, needing assistance to get off the field and away from the celebrating Cardinals. That year, Howard hit 33 home runs and drove in 116 runs. He would not reach those numbers in the next 2 years combined. For someone that averaged 49.5 HRs and 143 RBIs from 2006 through 2010 (and had just signed a 7 year, $125 million contract), this is a shocking and terribly disappointing drop off in production.
Having fallen of the roto-relevancy radar, Howard very quietly slugged 23 HRs and drove in 95 runs in 2014. Last night, Howard clubbed his 10th home run and is on pace to clear 100 RBIs for the first time in five years. He is also uncharacteristically hitting close to .260, which is closer to his career average than the .220 everyone's become accustomed to. When one of the decade's most prodigious power hitters starts to show feisty signs of life, smart roto-owners take notice. Howard, A-Rod, Albert Pujols are never going to return to their once-lofty status. However, they are right now amongst the cheapest roto-bargains that may be available in your league. Suffer the slings and barbs of your fellow owners that will chide you for not wasting your free agent budget on Jonathan Singleton or Joey Gallo's potential and make a small expenditure that should reap great rewards.”
Response: Schultz, the crusty veteran siding with A-Rod and co. Will wonders never cease? Of course, in another disappointing (for me) weekly installment, Schultz is making a lot of sense.