Giancarlo Stanton: Most Overrated Player in Fantasy Baseball

Giancarlo Stanton lofts balls into the sky reminding us all of the great home run hitters of the past. He hits the ball as hard and as far as anyone who has ever swung a bat. This is a fact. He is 26 years old, stands 6’6”, weighs in at 245 lbs and has a body that women, and men, wish they could have. He looks the part of a superstar.

Alas, he’s also the most overrated player in fantasy baseball. Year after year Stanton is taking at the top of drafts, year after year I tell people it’s a mistake, and year after year I’m proven correct. I fail to understand why I still have to make this argument, that Stanton is someone to avoid at the cost you have to pay, but for one last time I’m going to lay out why depending on Stanton to lead your fantasy team to a championship is flat out stupid.

HE IS ALWAYS HURT

Amazingly, people make excuses for the lack of health of Stanton all the time. I continually hear from people – it’s not a chronic issue so he will be fine. It’s not his fault he was hit in the face with a baseball costing him time. Folks, the facts are the facts. Here they are.

In seven big league seasons, he’s appeared in 125 games – twice.

I’ll do Stanton a favor and remove his rookie season which was 100 games played since he was called up after the season began. That’s definitely not his fault. From 2011 to 2016 here are the numbers you need to know.

Folks, Stanton has missed an average of 41 games a season the last six years. To say it another way, Stanton misses nearly a month and a half each season.

Let’s compare Stanton to another famously injured athlete.

What do we hear every year about Troy Tulowitzki? We hear something like ‘I can’t trust him, he’s always hurt.’ A few points to consider.

1 – Troy Tulowitzki has appeared in 150 games in a season twice.
Stanton has appeared in 150 games once.

2 – Stanton has missed an average of 41 games a season since his rookie year.
Tulowitzki misses an average of 42 games a season since his rookie year.

3 – Stanton posted a 5x5 fantasy line of .240-27-74-56-0 in 2016.
Tulowitzki posted a 5x5 fantasy line of .254-24-79-54-1 in 2016.

4 – Stanton plays the outfield.
Tulowitzki plays shortstop.

So why is everyone avoiding Tulo while they are ready to go heavily in on Stanton? The numbers saw draft Tulo ahead of Stanton given that he plays shortstop.

This Stanton love makes zero sense. Zilch.

The people that are in Stanton’s corner always say something like ‘but Ray, he’s been very unfortunate with injuries... there’s nothing chronic to worry about.’ I then always hear ‘Ray he got hit in his face and that’s not his fault.’ True, but let me repeat, again, that the guy is hurt every year – ALL OVER HIS BODY.

That’s ankle, knee, shoulder, eye, thigh, hamstring, groin, hand, wrist and face issues that have caused him to miss an average of 41 games a season the past six years.

It’s not one thing.

It’s not one unlucky injury.

Stanton is always hurt, always missing time, and always failing to live up to expectations. Always. It’s one thing if that happens to your 14^th round draft pick, but when it’s an early round pick, it’s crushing. That’s just the way it has gone with Stanton, year after year, yet folks continue to take him near the top of drafts. Why?

HIS PRODUCTION ISN’T AS STRONG AS IS BELIEVED

Let’s dig into the production with Stanton. I think this section will be eye-opening for many of you. Probably won’t change your mind, but maybe, possibly, it will.

Stanton has hit .266 for his career.
Kevin Pillar hit .266 in 2016.

Stanton has one season with 90 RBI.
Jake Lamb had 91 RBI last season.

Stanton has one season with 80 runs scored.
Jonathan Schoop scored 82 runs last season.

Stanton has one season with seven steals.
Rafael Ortega, Whit Merrifield and Kirk Nieuwenhuis had eight steals last season. 

That’s one season with 90 RBI, one season with 80 runs scored and one season with eight steals for Stanton. Curtis Granderson has two 90 RBI seasons, has scored 80 runs eight times and has stolen eight bases 10 times. Put it another way. Adam Duvall went 103 RBI, 85 runs and six steals last season. Adam Duvall was Giancarlo Stanton in 2016.

That’s not enough I would bet, is it? Oh, I’ve got more for those of you still holding on to the Stanton love.

Stanton has one season of 30 homers the last four seasons.
Stanton has one season with 75 RBI the last four seasons.
Stanton has one season of 65 runs scored the last four seasons.

In 2016 Yasmany Tomas had 31 homers, 83 RBI and 72 runs scored.

How can you read that and still think Stanton is a guy to build your fantasy team around?

Per 162 games Stanton has produced an average fantasy line of .266-41-106-106-7.
Per 162 games Jay Bruce has produced an average fantasy line of .248-31-94-85-8.
That’s a pretty similar line from Bruce, right?

In 2016 Stanton had an ADP of 10.1 while Bruce was at 189.1
Bruce was 179 picks cheaper.

‘Of course he was cheaper Ray because Bruce just isn’t as good as Stanton.’

Really?

Are you sure?

Are you really, really sure?

Here is the 5x5 fantasy line for each outfielder the last five years (2012-16). Prepare to have you mind blown.

Bruce’s average season is .245-29-93-80-7
Stanton’s average season is .267-31-80-68-5

So let’s get this straight.

The last six years...

Stanton has hit .022 points better than Bruce per season.

Stanton has averaged two more homers than Bruce per season.

Stanton has driven in 13 fewer runs than Bruce per season.

Stanton has scored 12 fewer runs than Bruce per season.

Stanton has stolen two fewer bases a season than Bruce.

You can make a valid argument that, straight up, Jay Bruce has been a better fantasy performer than Giancarlo Stanton the last six MLB seasons. When you factor in the cost on draft day, the massive premium you have to pay to roster Stanton over Bruce then it becomes crystal clear that not only was Bruce the better overall fantasy performer the past six years he was also a vastly superior fantasy weapon given the amount you had to invest in order to add his services to your club.

Simply put... the last six seasons Jay Bruce has been a better fantasy performer, while also be cheaper than, Giancarlo Stanton.  And don’t give me ‘but Ray, Stanton would blow away Bruce if he was healthy.’ That’s utter crap. Stanton isn’t healthy, he never is, and I deal in the world of the real versus fantasy. What is real is that Bruce has been better. Maybe’s and could be’s are for drinking beer on a Friday night as you ponder what would have happened if you asked Becky Devanna out in high school. I’m dealing with the real here, and the last six years the truth is that Bruce has been better.

Oh, I’m not done.

The last two years (2015-16)

Giancarlo Stanton has 54 homers, 141 RBI and 103 runs scored
Evan Gattis has 59 homers, 160 RBI and 124 runs scored

The last three years (2014-16)

Giancarlo Stanton has 91 homers, 246 RBI and 192 runs scored
Chris Carter has 102 homers, 246 RBI and 202 runs scored

The last four years (2013-16)

Giancarlo Stanton has 115 homers
Adam Jones has 118 homers

Giancarlo Stanton has 308 RBI
Kendrys Morales has 321 RBI

Giancarlo Stanton has 254 runs scored
Alcides Escobar has 264 runs scored

The last five years (2012-16)

Giancarlo Stanton has 152 homers
Mark Trumbo has 149 homers

Giancarlo Stanton has 394 RBI
Eric Hosmer has 394 RBI

Giancarlo Stanton has 329 runs scored
Nori Aoki has 329 runs scored

CONCLUSION

I know writing this article that I’m going to get heat from all of you. That’s fine. The reason I say that is because in this instance I know I’m right. Each year folks talk up Giancarlo Stanton. Each year he fails to live up to expectation. Rinse and repeat. Year after year folks just keeping making the same mistake over and over. Don’t draft him on the hope, the tiny hope, that he will play 150 games and win the MVP. Stephen Strasburg could win 25 games with 300 strikeouts. I could be chosen King of the World. None of those three things is happening though in 2017. Do yourself a favor and let someone else take Stanton at the top of this year’s draft. You will be happy you did.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 11 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).