I received the following question on Twitter Tuesday night.
Is it worth dropping Carlos Rodon to add Tyler Glasnow?
@brianicough
I responded with something like why on earth would you do that?
Then, the boo birds came out with folks suggesting I was off my rocker. ‘Why wouldn’t you drop Rodon who stinks for the future superstar that is Glasnow’ was pretty much the line of thought I dealt with. Let me explain, in more than 140 characters, my position.
1 – This one seems the most obvious to me, though it apparently doesn’t matter to anyone else, and that is Rodon has a spot locked down in the starting rotation of the White Sox while Glasnow is pitching for the Indianapolis Indians. Why doesn’t that hold sway for you?
2 – We have to wonder about a player’s Super 2 Status, especially for a frugal club like the Pirates. No one knows when the actual date is, but it’s usually right around when the calendar flips to the second week of June. That means even if the Pirates want to call up Glasnow that they might still wait a month to save some cash.
3 – We have no idea when Glasnow will be called up. None. It’s not like Juan Nicasio, Jon Niese or Jeff Locke are stars by any means, with the two lefties being replaceable well before Nicasio who has a much bigger arm. Still, recall that the Pirates signed Ryan Vogelsong this offseason, ostensibly to start. Who’s to say that the Pirates wouldn’t turn to Vogelsong if they needed a starting pitcher?
4 – Are you even certain that Glasnow would be called up if the Pirates delve into the minors? Some folks just seem to assume Glasnow will get the first call, and it’s certainly possible. He’s an elite talent who currently sports a 1.64 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over six starts. He’s displayed power too with a massive 48 batters walking back to the dugout after a strikeout over 33 innings. He also walked 13 batters leading to a very moderate 3.55 BB/9 rate. So why wouldn’t he be called up? Anyone heard of Jameson Taillon? The former first round draft pick has made six starts of his own this season and the results have been even better than those of Glasnow as Taillon has a 1.69 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 32 punchouts in 37.1 innings and he’s walked a mere four batters in his six starts. Are you really sure it will be Glasnow, and not Taillon, that is called up by the Pirates if an arm is needed in the big leagues?
5 – How many innings is Glasnow going to be able to throw in 2016? Glasnow tossed 111.1 innings in 2013. In 2014 he threw 124.1 Innings. In 2015 he tossed 109.1 innings. He’s never thrown 125 innings and one would think he would be capped at no more than 160 innings this season. Just something to keep in mind.
6 – Is Glasnow more talented or highly rated than Rodon? Seems like everyone just assumes yes, but the truth is muddled. Let’s compare.
Coming into last season Rodon was ranked as the 15th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America, 14th according to MLB.com and 41st according to Baseball Prospectus. You might have forgotten it, but Rodon was an elite arm, everyone knew it, after he was taken 3rd overall in the 2014 Entry Draft.
Coming into this season Glasnow was ranked as the 16th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America, 12th according to MLB.com and 21st according to Baseball Prospectus. Pretty much a dead heat for the first two sources with Rodon, and only slightly ahead with BP. Basically though, it’s a wash when it comes to their prospect rankings, despite what everyone seemingly thinks.
I’m not sitting here in denial. Rodon hasn’t performed as well as hoped, but come on, what’s not to like?
Rodon has 179 strikeouts in 179 career innings.
After walking 4.6 batters per nine last season the mark is down a full batter this season at 3.6 per nine.
After posting a 1.57 GB/FB ratio last year the mark is equally strong this season at 1.69. That’s a strong number, is it not?
Though Rodon’s ERA currently sits at 4.99, his SIERA (3.86) and xFIP (3.74) certainly suggest that he hasn’t pitched as poorly as it would seem on the surface.
I’m not able to definitively say that if Glasnow gets the call that he won’t produce better numbers than Rodon, it is certainly possible that he does. But if you can honestly read the above six data points and still think that Glasnow is the better use of a roster spot, in a redraft league, than Rodon, then I really don’t know what to say.
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