Fantasy Football Target Watch: P-P-P-Percy & the Jets

Before we start recapping the targets from Week 7 and discuss what that could mean for Week 8, I just wanted to share my own thoughts on the recent trade that sent wide receiver Percy Harvin to the New York Jets and what it could mean for fantasy owners. Our fearless leader, Jeff Mans, has never been shy about sharing his thoughts and opinion on Harvin and if you follow him on Twitter and/or Facebook or tune in regularly to the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Radio, you already know that he’s not a fan of the much-maligned wide receiver. For me, though, It’s a bit of a different story. While I’m not a card-carrying member of the Harvin-to-the-Jets fanboy regime, I do think that his fantasy value increases somewhat with the move.

Both teams, the Seahawks and the Jets, are run-first clubs, but as we see in the total pass attempts for the two clubs – 176 and 245, respectively – the Jets are much more inclined to start chucking the ball around. Sure, the Jets have played one more game, but there’s no way Russell Wilson is going to make up a 69 pass-attempt differential with one game. Not to mention the fact that the 1-6 Jets are more likely to be playing from behind which means an abandonment of the running game.

Also working in Harvin and his fantasy owners’ favor is the fact that, skill set-wise, he is light years ahead of any Jets receiver not named Eric Decker. Light years. The Jets already cut a useless David Nelson, Jeremy Kerley is sitting on a dismal 48.7-percent catch rate and is there any reason to even mention the likes of T.J. Graham, Greg Salas or Saalim Hakim? Before Harvin arrived, this was probably the worst group of receivers ever assembled on any NFL team. Hell, there were high school teams that probably had a sturdier group. Harvin won’t even have to compete for a starting job. Once he’s got the playbook down, he’s a no-brainer start for the Jets.

And let’s not forget the offensive coordinator situation. One of the biggest criticisms of the Jets offense was Marty Mornhinweg’s inability to adapt his play-calling and schemes to the players he had. He relies on the pass way too much for a run-first team and loves to mix in the fancy, trick plays. But rather than get rid of him, the Jets went out and grabbed a receiver who fits into his style much more.  Harvin can carry the ball out of the backfield, he can run across the middle, and he’s got the speed to be a deep threat. He gives Mornhinweg a weapon he hasn’t had all year long.

Now obviously this is going to be a developing situation. The Jets are planning on using him as a return man for kickoffs and punts and his role in the offense will increase as rapidly as he can pick up the playbook. His presence should start to free up Decker for now and within another week or two, he should start seeing a significant increase in targets. Yes, you obviously have to factor in the shortcomings of Geno Smith and no, you can’t ignore the potential injury risk, but overall, you can expect him to be a much better fantasy option than he’s been with the Seahawks this year.

Now let’s hit the targets.

Week 7 Target Leaders

Golden Tate, WR DET – It looks like the move to Detroit for Harvin’s favorite punching bag has been a great one, so long as Calvin Johnson stays on the sidelines. Over the last four games, Tate has averaged 11 targets, eight catches and 112 yards per game. He’s got two touchdowns to go along with that and now heads across the pond to take on a hapless Falcons defense that allows an average of 274 passing yards per game and has given up eight touchdowns through the air. Johnson remains questionable, so make sure you set your lineup ahead of time. The game is being played at 9:30am ET.

Jermaine Gresham, TE CIN – Considered more of a blocking tight end these days, the Bengals simply had no choice but to throw the ball Gresham’s way more frequently. The Colts were clamping down on Mohamed Sanu and Brandon Tate and the ground game wasn’t doing a damn thing. While you’d like for this to be a more consistent thing, it probably won’t be. A.J. Green is on his way back and Gresham simply isn’t a trustworthy target. Sure, he’ll get his looks here and there, but that’s not something upon which to rely.

Doug Baldwin, WR SEA – More fallout from the Harvin trade as someone had to step it up to replace him as the top dog in the Seahawks’ receiving corps. Baldwin had a tremendous game; probably the game of his life. But it’s hard to buy into it after just one game and the knowledge that Wilson likes to look for Jermaine Kearse a lot more in the red zone. You have to take a leap of faith here that he’ll continue to get the targets though as his match-up this week is far too tasty to pass up. Carolina may only allow an average of 251 passing yards per game, but they’ve given 15 passing touchdowns this season and quarterbacks have a cumulative passer rating of 100.3 against them.

Cecil Shorts, WR JAC – Only three catches on nine targets for 12 yards and we have to still pay attention to him? You’re damn right you do. It was his first game back, so you had to expect some rust, but the good thing is that Blake Bortles continued to look for him all game. Not only that, but his four red zone targets shows that Bortles is looking for him in all the right moments as well. So long as his hamstrings don’t snap on him, Shorts could be a great play moving forward.

Travaris Cadet, RB NO – For those in deeper leagues, Cadet could be a nice two-to-three week stopgap while Pierre Thomas is out. Cadet will fill in that Darren Sproles-type role and should see a fair amount of targets again this week as the Packers rank just 22^nd in the league against running back pass plays. Should the otherwise stout Green Bay pass defense stifle Drew Brees and the receiving corps, Cadet could be in for a big game.

Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

Rueben Randle, WR NYG – With the loss of Victor Cruz, Randle’s already increasing target rate continues to increase. Yes, Odell Beckham is now the hottest thing since Lisa Ann helped collaborate on the 2014 Fantasy Alarm Basketball Guide, but Randle will continue to see a dominant number of looks. Also, with Rashad Jennings still out and Andre Williams struggling, Eli Manning is likely to air it out a lot more often.

T.Y. Hilton, WR IND – Get ready for a little separation in target rate for Hilton and teammate Reggie Wayne. With Wayne potentially sidelined for the next two games, Andrew Luck is going to be extremely reliant on Hilton in the passing attack. This week’s match-up with a suddenly porous Pittsburgh defense looks tasty as the Steelers rank 20^th against opposing No. 1 receivers. He may draw some added coverage in the beginning, but once Luck starts finding an under-the-radar Donte Moncrief, Hilton should find himself in enough one-on-one coverage to bust out.

Red Zone Target Leaders

James Jones, WR OAK – There’s nothing like garbage time to ruin people’s fantasy weeks, amirite? Well, Jones, with his 37.5-percent red zone target rate, is one of the better examples of it as he dominates the red zone targets for the Raiders. Sure, they don’t find themselves in the red zone all too often, but once teams jump out to a lead against Oakland, they soften up their coverage and suddenly the offense moves downfield a little easier. The touchdowns may not matter in the real world but they sure as hell do in fantasy.

Mike Wallace, WR MIA – We said it coming into the season – Wallace was headed for a great season now that Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins coaches knew exactly how to use him. He’s got five touchdowns on the year and his 10 red zone targets make up for 27-percent of the team’s looks inside the 20-yard line. The Jaguars haven’t exactly been their normal pushover selves over the last two games, but so long as the Fins keep the vertical game alive with Wallace, he should do just fine.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 8 Match-Up to Watch

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals – While most people are looking at match-ups like Thursday’s Chargers/Broncos game or anything involving the Raiders, I love this Battle of the Birds for fantasy purposes. The Cardinals have Carson Palmer back under center and face an Eagles pass defense that has given up 13 passing touchdowns while opposing quarterbacks have a cumulative 94.6 passer rating against them. Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd should have themselves a nice little end zone party. On the other side, the Cardinals are giving up an average of 287 passing yards per game with 10 touchdowns through the air. But best of all is their pass rush has yielded just seven sacks and limited pressure which means Nick Foles and Jeremy Maclin should have quite the party themselves.

Dunks, 3-pointers and pressure D. The 2014 Fantasy Alarm Basketball Guide has you covered from all angles. Category targets, breakout performers, players to avoid & more than 300 players ranked highlight the offering.