Pitchers hot and not highlight this week’s Week That Was:
Garrett Richards: Garrett Richards looked good this week tossing 6 innings of two-run ball while striking out six. On the year, the Angles ace has not been, well . . . an ace. Through three starts, Richards has no wins and a bloated 1.30 WHIP. Do NOT give up here. DO look for an opportunity to acquire the righty. Let’s do a bit of a deeper dive. Richards’ velocity has actually increased to almost 96 MPH, his GB rate is strong at over 53 percent, and the swinging strike rate is up to a very elite level of 13.5 percent. So, of course, the question is: why no wins and a weak WHIP? The answer is he has been a bit unlucky with a .355 BABIP. The bottom line here is that there are precious few pitchers who throw as hard or induce as many groundballs as the Angels’ ace. Stay the course and you will be rewarded for your faith. I am sticking with Richards as my pick for AL Cy Young even without a win in his first three starts.
Erasmo Ramirez: Erasmo Ramirez finally got to start a game and he delivered. The Rays pitcher went 5 2/3 innings giving up only three hits and no earned runs while striking out four. Yes, I know he is the 5th starter and I know Blake Snell is lurking. However, I advocate holding on to the Tampa righty. Last year, Erasmo posted some very strong skills including a 48 percent ground ball rate, an 11-plus percent swinging strike rate and a 65-plus percent first-pitch strike rate. Erasmo is only 26 and is continuing to show the skills of 15 in the early going of 16. Invest if you still have the chance. The price should be low and the reward could be quite nice.
Cole Hamels: Hamels was mediocre at best this week going just 5 2/3 innings while giving up nine baserunners, three earned runs and striking out only four. On the year, the Texas lefty is 2-0 with a solid but unspectacular 2.95 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. I think Cole will be fine but he has been a bit lucky to have an ERA under 3 as his FIP is over 5, his BABIP is in the depressed .250 level and the strand rate a fortunate 85 percent. On the plus side, Hamels is getting a lot more grounders at 56 percent, his swinging strike rate is over 15 percent (which would be a career high) and his HR/FB rate is a very elevated 23-plus percent. Bottom line here: Texas is a better park in which to pitch and surely a better one than Citizens Bank. Stay the course!
Adam Wainwright: Wainwright was just not sharp Saturday. The Cards righty gave up 7 runs and 10 hits while striking out just two over 5 1/3 innings. On the year, Waino has an ugly 8.27 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. Bail? Well, let’s analyze. While I hate to give up on a guy with so much heart and so much skill – and we know Waino has both – I am worried. Yes, bad luck does have something to do with the ugly numbers as the 53 percent strand rate and .350+ BABIP can attest. However, the velo is probably under 90mph to stay and Waino is inducing far fewer grounders and whiffs this year than in years past. Roll the dice against the light-hitting Padres this week but if that goes awry, worry more.
Jered Weaver: Weaver was not too good on Saturday. The soft-tossing Angel gave up 10 baserunners and 4 runs over just 4 1/3 innings while striking out just 1. Sell. Sell while you can still get anything at all. When I say soft-tosser, I am understating the facts. Weaver is averaging under 82 MPH on his fastball. Yes, you read that correctly. UNDER 82! Moreover, he is inducing grounders barely more than 1/4 of the time. This is a meltdown waiting to happen. If you get caught in the blaze, you only have yourself to blame. Weaver was a very good major league pitcher for quite some time. Was.
Scott Kazmir: Kazmir had an off day Saturday giving up 4 runs, 7 hits and 4 walks in 4 innings. On the year, Kazmir has a 6.43 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP – both rather ugly numbers. The numbers are made to look worse when you consider that Kazmir fell off the shelf in the second half of 14 and 15. Is there any silver lining? Well, not really. The velo is down, the BABIP is not elevated, and the swinging strike rate is down. Yes, it is early but there is no way I am risking starting a stone cold Kazmir in Coors this week. Act accordingly.
Chris Young: Chris Young was also bad Saturday allowing 4 earned runs, 8 hits and 2 walks in just 4 innings against the hardly big hitting Oakland A’s. On the year, Young has three losses (all of KC’s losses through Saturday) with a 7.90 ERA and 1.98 WHIP. Throwing just 87 MPH leaves little margin for error. That thin margin is coming home to roost. There are just too many alternatives in KC for them to continue running Young out there much longer. His was a good story in 2015 but, as we say in New York, that and a MetroCard will get you on the subway in 2016. Pass.
And now the moment you well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates a/k/a Schultz says: “As long time readers of this little part of The Week That Was surely know by now, Schultz usually preaches two things at the start of every season: (1) never pay attention to pre-season statistics and (2) never pay attention to the punditry concerning "things learned from the pre-season." If you listened to the prevailing wisdom, you would have been under the impression that Vincent Velasquez was in danger of spending April (and perhaps longer) in the minor leagues or likely to be relegated to the bullpen to make room from Brett Oberholtzer or Adam Morgan. However, if you just used your brain, you would have surely recalled that Velasquez had a relatively successful rookie stint with the Astros in 2015 and was one of the key pieces to the trade that resulting in the Phillies shipping Ken Giles to Houston. You would have also recalled that Velasquez occasionally flashed electric stuff and would have been the talk of the Astros' rookie class were it not for Carlos Correa and Lance McCullers. Velasquez isn't going to pitch like an unhittable ace for the entirety of the season. Nonetheless, if you managed to snag him for the back end of your rotation, you will be getting an extraordinary return on your investment. (Schultz will leave it to literary scholars to judge the viability of writing in the second and the third person in the same paragraph).
The Ken Giles trade, especially its dubious benefit to the Astros, demonstrates the danger of investing to heavily in any closer not named Kimbrel or Chapman. There's a reason that very few closers last more than two to three years. With the exception of a freakish talent like Mariano Rivera, the league ultimately catches up with the newly-minted closers - relegating them to real life and roto-liabilities. Rather than invest heavily in last year's successes in the hopes they establish themselves as an elite closer, it's wiser to stake a modest claim in a Jeremy Jeffress, Jake McGee or Jeanmar Gomez, who will flirt with elite status until the league figures out how to send them back to the 6th inning. Of course, none of the above seems to apply to Mark Melancon, who continues to defy explanation.
Speaking of the league coming around to figure out how to solve new and emerging problems, how many home runs did Trevor Story hit this week? Schultz rests his case.”
Response: I did not get past the shout out the great Mariano Rivera from an Indians’ fan. That made my day, thank you!