Fantasy Baseball Week 7 Preview

Welcome to the newest edition of the Weekly MLB Preview!

GAME BREAKDOWN GRID FOR WEEK 7 (5/16-5/22)

Analysis: Fantasy owners should be aware of the following splits prior to setting their Week 7 lineups:

• Two of the top three teams leading MLB in ERA splits at home will benefit from their friendly confines this week, including the New York Mets (2.73 ERA at home) and Chicago White Sox (2.76).
• Curious who leads MLB in away games ERA then? Try the Chicago Cubs, who have posted a ridiculous 2.41 mark away from Wrigley Field. Funny enough, they are on the road this entire week, and square off against the Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants. Start your Cubs pitchers with confidence.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers batters have put forth some rather interesting splits this year, contrary to what might be assumed. While most teams perform better (to a degree) at home, the Dodgers have actually seen more road success than one would expect. The team is currently second-to-last in runs scored at home (with 40 through 15 games, averaging just 2.6 per matchup, which is truly dreadful), versus on the road, where they have scored 98 in 18 games (an average of 5.4, over double their road numbers!). The Dodgers have five games on the road this week.
• Let’s be honest, the Cincinnati Reds lineup as a whole are a joke, especially after the loss of Devin Mesoraco. Yet, here is a funny statistic for you – despite having such little talent, the team actually leads the league in home runs hit at home with 31 through 21 games. In the upcoming week, five of the team’s seven games come at the “Great American Smallpark.” Perhaps this is the break that Joey Votto needs to break out of his slump?

INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK

Analysis: Week 7 features a full slate of interleague action, with 13 games on the schedule. As usual, the main point of interest focuses on which DH’s will possibly sit on the road. The Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners are all on the road at some point over the course of the week, which means that sluggers like Nelson Cruz and Albert Pujols could miss time. The Yankees situation is more in flux, as their DH has primarily come from the outfield with Alex Rodriguez on the DL – expect Aaron Hicks to draw the short end of the stick there.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

Analysis: While the first three names atop the board are no-brainers in Clayton Kershaw, Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard, the fourth may (still) come as a surprise to some – Kenta Maeda. I profiled Maeda during spring training and pegged him as a deep sleeper in mixed league formats. While I don’t want to pound my chest too hard, the Japanese import has posted an impressive 1.66 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over six outings, while striking out nearly a batter per inning. Keep in mind that this hasn’t come against poor competition, either, as he has surrendered zero earned runs to both the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks, who currently are within the top five teams in the league for runs scored. Is this level of success sustainable? Likely not, as teams have little experience with him thus far. I’m curious to see what will happen when he faces teams for the second or third time.

• Jordan Zimmermann has shown signs of coming back down to Earth recently, after (finally) surrendering his first earned run. He faces two plus-matchups against the Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays during Week 7 – both matchups should also allow him to improve his K/9 rate.
• J.A. Happ continues to impress, and shows little signs of slowing down. His 2.05 ERA is currently sixth in the majors, while his 1.15 WHIP ranks him within the top 15. Considering that his career ERA is 4.14 and WHIP is 1.37, these numbers are bound to return to Earth at some point (especially pitching in the AL East), so owners should enjoy the ride while it lasts.
• Are you a believer in patterns? Rick Porcello’s last six starts, by earned runs allowed – 3,3,0,0,3,3…. Clearly this means that he’s going to throw two shutouts against the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians, right? Likely not, but Porcello has been much better than advertised so far in 2016, recording a 3.11 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through the first seven starts this year. Still just 27 years old, Porcello has increased his K/9 rate dramatically this year, and is currently averaging over a strikeout per inning. While it may not keep at that pace all season, he has shown enough promise to warrant a top-11 rating.

Analysis: What is the easiest way to crack the top 10 in my pitcher rankings? Pick matchups against the NL East! Of the first 10 pitchers I’ve ranked, five square off against the Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins or New York Mets. There aren’t any surprises in the names which are listed until one were to reach Aaron Sanchez, who squares off against the Minnesota Twins on Friday, May 20. Not only are the Blue Jays bats finally starting to come alive, but he squares off against Tyler Duffey, a low-end option at best. Be prepared for a dominant outing.

• While many experts panned Matt Harvey as a top 5-7 starter this season, he has been a major disappointment, surrendering 20 earned runs over his first 40 innings pitched, coupled with a 1.48 WHIP. This week’s matchup against the Washington Nationals isn’t particularly favorable, even with Bryce Harper in the midst of a slump. While I can understand owners needing to start Harvey, consider this – his poor statistics are even worse given that most of his starts have been against abysmal offenses (Atlanta twice, Philadelphia, San Diego and Cincinnati). Proceed with caution.
• Another early-season struggling ace is Zack Greinke, whose stat line of a 5.15 ERA and 1.44 WHIP are enough to make owners gag. He has shown signs of turning it around lately though, allowing two earned runs or less in four of the past five outings, with his one blemish coming against the St. Louis Cardinals. Regression was expected from his outrageous 2015 campaign, but he still remains a top 10 pitcher. Greinke faces the bi-polar New York Yankees – I remain faithful this is a matchup he can exploit.
• Is it finally time to start taking Steven Wright seriously? The words I used to describe my thoughts on him recently were “cautiously optimistic.” It is inherently dangerous to rely on knuckleball pitchers to continually post quality starts, but Wright has been too good this season to simply ignore and dismiss his success.  I wouldn’t expect his strikeout rate to maintain (especially against the patient Kansas City Royals), but Wright’s stock is trending upwards.