Fantasy Baseball Week 16 Preview

Welcome to the newest edition of the Weekly MLB Preview!

GAME BREAKDOWN GRID FOR WEEK 16 (7/18 - 7/24)

Analysis: Looking for statistics which will influence your upcoming lineup? Check out these tidbits:

• Fun fact: Both teams which currently are batting over .300 collectively at home (Colorado Rockies and Boston Red Sox) will be home for the entirety of Week 16. These teams are also the top two in terms of runs scored at home, with the next closest club (Baltimore Orioles) being 20 runs behind. Although owners were likely going to start their studs from either team regardless, a boost in expectations is warranted.
• The Milwaukee Brewers currently lead the league in stolen bases, despite them not being widely hyped as a speedy club. Additionally, this week the team faces off against four LHP – they are a full seven steals ahead of the Cincinnati Reds in that respect. Of the teams 25 steals against southpaws, Jonathan Villar has 12 of them.
• The Cleveland Indians are on the road for the entirety of Week 16, and currently rank dead last in terms of AVG away from home at .234. Players who have significant splits between home and away include Yan Gomes (batting .139 on the road), Mike Napoli (.214) and Rajai Davis (.236).
• Both the Cincinnati Reds and New York Yankees are home for all of Week 16, and their pitching staffs have surrendered a combined 148 dingers while at their friendly confines. Owners would do well in DFS to stream players going against either staff who are looking for plug-and-play power.

INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK

Analysis: As we return from the All-Star break, the Interleague slate is rather light, as owners are faced with just four contests between the AL and NL. The San Francisco Giants are the club most effected, as all five of their contests are against AL opponents. Although the Giants gain a DH, neither player who will see a significant uptick in playing time (Gregor Blanco or Trevor Brown) are fantasy relevant. Both AL teams who are on the road (Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays) are losing significant power with the loss of their DHs in Edwin Encarnacion and Corey Dickerson.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

Analysis: This week’s slate of two-start options is rather light, which is surprising given that most clubs have a seven-game schedule coming off of the All-Star break. Jose Fernandez is the obvious front-runner atop my chart, squaring off against two woeful offenses in the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets.

Vince Velasquez gets a surprise nod in the second slot, ahead of both Carlos Martinez and Jon Lester. While Velasquez hasn’t struck out more than 10 batters in a game since May 17, he has been remarkably consistent, allowing two earned runs or less in his last five appearances. His 93 strikeouts over 78 innings isn’t a fluke, and the major question that is prohibiting him from being a legitimate SP1 is how many innings the Phillies are willing to put onto his arm in 2016. Owners should reap the benefits of Velasquez receiving additional rest over the break. Reap the rewards.

Another interesting two-start option this week is Sean Manaea of the Oakland Athletics. His 5.24 ERA and 1.39 WHIP aren’t going to impress many owners at first glance, but if they took a deeper look into his recent performances, there are signs of dramatic improvement. Like most rookie pitchers, Manaea is prone to the occasional bad start, which has dramatically inflated his averages. However, he has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his past six starts, while racking up 34 strikeouts in the process. He remains a spot-starter, but his stock is trending upwards.

Analysis: Jake Arrieta has looked incredibly human over his past few outings, so despite a phenomenal matchup against the New York Mets, I plugged him into the third spot in my rankings this week. Heaven forbid, I know. There isn’t much in terms of surprises for my first several pitchers, until owners reach Rich Hill, who I’ve ranked eighth.

Few thought that at 36 years old that Hill would be quite this good in 2016. Assuming that he can remain healthy for the remainder of the season (and given his track record, that is a rather large assumption), he would certainly be in the running for “biggest steal per ADP.” A 2.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 90 strikeouts over 76 innings is a truly incredible feat, especially considering some of the clubs he has faced of late (Astros, Tigers, Rangers and Orioles, to name a few). Well done, Mr. Hill.

Despite the fact that Yu Darvish has yet to make it past the sixth inning in any of his first four starts back from the DL, it appears that nothing has truly changed in terms of his skillset. His control still needs some fine-tuning, but that is to be expected after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Expect more of the same – striking out over a batter-per-inning, with an ERA sitting in the high 2’s. It has been worth the wait.

What does the move to Boston do to Drew Pomeranz’s value? One has to assume that the transition to Fenway won’t necessarily help his ERA or WHIP, given that he went from one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in all of baseball to perhaps the least. That being said, the run support that he will receive from the Red Sox will dramatically increase his win total, and he no longer has the unfair expectations of being his staff’s ace. I’m still a fan of Pomeranz being in the mid-tier SP2 discussion for the remainder of the season.