Fantasy Baseball Week 12 Preview

Welcome to the newest edition of the Weekly MLB Preview!

GAME BREAKDOWN GRID FOR WEEK 13 (6/27 to 7/3)

Analysis: Looking for statistics which will influence your upcoming lineup? Check out these tidbits:

• The Chicago Cubs have been utterly dominant this season, yet for all of their success they only have five saves on the road in 2016 (the second-lowest total in all of baseball). All seven games occur away from Wrigley Field next week.
• Wondering which team currently leads the league in road saves? That would be the Miami Marlins, with 14. Similar to the Cubs, the Marlins are on the road for the entirety of Week 13.
• While the Colorado Rockies' lineup offers tremendous power upside, they currently have the second-most strikeouts against LHP in the league with 191. While this may not be a major deal to owners, consider the fact that the Mariners also have 191, but that came in 137 more at-bats. The Rockies face Clayton Kershaw, Scott Kazmir and Julio Urias in Los Angeles to close out the end of the week – expect some serious whiffs.
• For the month of June, the Baltimore Orioles are collectively batting .287 with 42 HR and 124 RBI – those offensive numbers place them in the top two in each category. Led by Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez, Manny Machado and Chris Davis, the team is capable of slaughtering any pitching staff. Next week they take on the San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners – the combined record of their opponents is 18-24.

INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK

Analysis: Owners would do themselves a favor by keeping track of all the interleague games this upcoming week, as there are 29 games which pit the two leagues against each other. Several AL DH’s are going to lose playing time, including Kendrys Morales for five games, and Edwin Encarnacion for three. In terms of NL players which stand to gain at-bats, the most attractive names for streaming options would be David Freese or Trevor Brown – both offer middling power in decent lineups. Given the fact that all but two of the matchups are three games or less, owners who play in weekly lineup leagues will likely have to eat the losses of playing time.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

Analysis: This week starts off with the usual suspects in Jake Arrieta, Noah Syndergaard and Jon Lester atop my two-start recommendations. Tanner Roark comes in a surprising fourth, largely in part due to his outstanding matchups against the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds. The Mets are batting a putrid .238 during the month of June, while the Reds are without Joey Votto for the forseeable future as he battles the flu. Given the Washington Nationals' offensive run support and Roark’s success this season, I wouldn’t be shocked if he finished the week with two wins and over 14 strikeouts.

I’m happy to rank Trevor Bauer within my top 10 options this week, as I’ve long been a supporter of his talent. Over the past four games, Bauer has allowed a total of five earned runs over nearly 39 innings, while striking out 32 batters in the process. Things are finally clicking for him, and he rounds out one of the best rotations in all of baseball, especially with Corey Kluber finally getting back into form (who I have ranked directly behind him).

Robbie Ray is ranked higher than usual, and owners may be wondering why, given his 4.59 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Sure, he’s been a disappointment this season compared to the expectations that many had, but my ranking factors in his past performances this season against the two teams he has faced. Ray squares off against the Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants in Week 13, and during the two starts against those teams in 2016, he has allowed just two earned runs over 12 innings while striking out 15. If he can replicate that level of success, he would be a beneficial streaming option in leagues where he’s been dropped.

Owners are still holding their breath for Matt Harvey to start pitching like The Dark Knight. While he did enjoy a nice stretch at the beginning of June (he surrendered just two earned runs over 20 innings in three starts), his recent struggles against the woeful Atlanta Braves have me raising an eyebrow. He faces two extremely challenging matchups against the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs. In weekly leagues I’d strongly consider sitting him.

Analysis: Of the top 10 one-start recommendations, five come against NL East teams. Given that the two-start pitcher pool was extremely top-heavy in Week 13, it comes as little surprise that no-doubt aces top the list here. The first pitcher who wasn’t drafted as an SP1 comes in Julio Teheran, who takes on the Miami Marlins. I’ve praised Teheran in prior columns, so I won’t reinvent the wheel here. Simply put, he’s been the lone bright spot for this entire team in 2016. The last time Teheran allowed more than three earned runs in a start? April 14. He might not have the gaudy strikeout numbers of other pitchers, but he has been as reliable as they come.

While I mentioned earlier that I’d be hesitant to consider starting Matt Harvey, I still believe that fellow Mets Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom have enough talent to be considered high-end options, despite their difficult schedules. Matz faces the Nationals while deGrom takes on the Cubs. Even though both starters may allow two or three earned runs each, I can see them racking up enough strikeouts to warrant these rankings.

Just how good has Michael Fulmer been? He has allowed three earned runs over his past 44 innings. THREE. He has been the best rookie starting pitcher in the AL, and is living up to the hype he generated in the minor leagues. While he has been fantastic, one has to wonder what his innings cap is this season, as he pitched just 125 innings in 2015. Regardless, he is really making a mark, and has provided an overwhelming amount of value given his ADP.