Fantasy Baseball Week 11 Preview

Welcome to the newest edition of the Weekly MLB Preview!

GAME BREAKDOWN GRID FOR WEEK 11 (6/13 to 6/19)

Analysis: Someone might want to inform the New York Mets' offense that a team is supposed to perform better at home than on the road. Collectively the team is batting .216 at home, and .243 on the road – all six games they have in Week 11 are at Shea Stadium.

Speaking of struggles from New York teams, the Yankees currently have the lowest road OPS of any team in the major leagues, at .636 (yes, even somehow worse than the putrid Atlanta Braves). All six games the Yankees have occur on the road in Week 11.

The Kansas City Royals' offense is predicated upon timely hitting and “small ball,” the art of manufacturing runs without relying upon hitting the ball out of the park. A large factor is the lineup being selective with their pitches to hit, and limiting their strikeouts. The Royals currently have the lowest home strikeout total in the majors at just 168 (compared to the Houston Astros, who are worst with 318). The Royals are home for the entirety of next week – consider that when starting pitchers against them.

INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK

Analysis: This week features a full slate of NL vs. AL action, featuring 17 games between the two circuits. Most impacted by the change would be the Houston Astros, who are on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals for two games, before facing the Cincinnati Reds at home for three. It will be hard for the team to bench Evan Gattis given how he is hitting right now, which means that Jason Castro will continue to ride the pine. ESPN leagues that require 10 games started for eligibility purposes will add Gattis’ catcher status next week. Prince Fielder will also likely be forced to miss out, with the Texas Rangers heading to St. Louis. Fielder has been a tremendous disappointment to date, only batting .192 with four home runs in limited time. The team can manage without him just fine. NL players who will inherit time include Trevor Brown and Ryan Howard – consider them for DFS purposes once the lineups are announced confirming the changes.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

Analysis: Steven Matz continues to be absolutely dominant this season, and this is his first appearance atop the two-start rankings list in 2016. His 2.39 ERA is currently 12^th in all of baseball, and his 1.11 WHIP ranks him within the top 25. While he hasn’t made it past the sixth inning in each of his past two starts, his owners have very little to complain about. In Week 11 he faces the Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves, two teams that have struggled over the past few weeks. Expect his ascension to continue.

Although Yu Darvish only has three starts to his credit in 2016, he has looked fantastic since returning from Tommy John surgery. I initially debated ranking him lower due to the right shoulder discomfort he felt in his last start against the Houston Astros, but the Oakland Athletics and St.Louis Cardinals are two above-average matchups that he will exploit.

Much to no one’s surprise, the Braves have been historically bad in 2016. As a resident in the state of Georgia, I can also firmly state that the team has little support from local fans (likely since we’re paying out of pocket for the new stadium, but that is another story). Yet despite all of the team’s shortcomings, Julio Teheran has fantastic, providing a much needed anchor in a rotation void of talent. Teheran’s owners can’t expect much in the way of run support, but if he keeps his ERA at 2.85 and WHIP at 1.02, he won’t need much help. Teheran checks in as my seventh-ranked pitcher in Week 11.

With each passing start Los Angeles Dodgers rookie sensation Julio Urias appears more comfortable, which is bad news for his opponents. The team seemed hesitant to promote him as fast as they did, but injuries to the back-end of their rotation forced their hand. The biggest question that I have for Urias is his innings limit, as threw less than 90 innings in the minor leagues last year. His matchups against the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers will provide further insight on what the team plans to do with restrictions.

Analysis: There isn’t much debate about the first tier of elite talent listed above, until readers come to the name of Jeff Samardzija. Although his acquisition by the San Francisco Giants made plenty of headlines, his performance this season has been much better than anyone could have predicted. His xFIP suggests that he has been performing a little above his head (he currently has a 3.33 ERA, and a xFIP of 3.62), but this is largely in part due to a .283 BABIP. Regardless, there is a lot to like here. An increased reliance upon his fastball rather than cutter and splitter have translated into success – something which he’ll continue against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Corey Kluber has been much better of late after a dreadful start to 2016. While his 3.84 ERA is still a little higher than owners predicted given his ADP, he has made leaps and bounds forward over the past four starts, allowing two earned runs or less in three of them. Despite his early season struggles he has maintained a strikeout rate of a batter per inning, while limiting his walks. The time to buy low on him has nearly passed.

I mentioned both Joe Ross and Tanner Roark in my column last week, pointing out how dominant the back-half of the Washington Nationals rotation has been. Both starters face off against the woeful San Diego Padres offense, and are fantastic streaming options in shallower leagues.

Speaking of pitchers who deserve to be owned in more leagues, Detroit Tigers pitcher Michael Fulmer has continued to open eyes in the early going. He has strike out more than a batter-per-inning while posting an ERA of 2.83 with a 1.17 WHIP. With the Tigers offense finally waking up from their long hibernation (here’s looking at you, Justin Upton), Fulmer will rack up the wins steadily moving forward. Add him now if he’s still available.