Welcome to the newest edition of the Weekly MLB Preview!

GAME BREAKDOWN GRID FOR WEEK 10 (6/6 to 6/12)

TEAM# GAMESHOMEAWAYVS LEFTVS RIGHT
Orioles73434
Yankees77016
Red Sox50523
Blue Jays74307
Rays63324
Tigers63324
Royals60624
White Sox66015
Indians70734
Twins66042
Angels73407
Mariners77025
Athletics50514
Rangers74334
Astros70734
Nationals63324
Marlins60642
Mets70725
Braves63333
Phillies63315
Cardinals60633
Pirates76116
Brewers66024
Reds66033
Cubs60615
Dodgers63324
Giants55023
Padres63306
Rockies74325
Diamondbacks66033

Analysis: Fantasy owners should be aware of the following splits prior to setting their Week 8 lineups:

  • The St. Louis Cardinals are on the road for the entirety of Week 10, but that shouldn’t downgrade their lineup too much. As a whole, the club is currently tied for fifth in .AVG on the road (.271), while they currently lead all of baseball in road RBI (147) and are tied for fifth in road HR (37). With Matt Adams and Matt Holliday experiencing a resurgence of late, start them with confidence.
  • No team faces more LHP in Week 10 than the Miami Marlins (they face four). Currently the team ranks tied for third in terms of AVG vs. LHP at .276. Several of their starters really succeed against southpaws, perhaps none more than Marcel Ozuna, who is batting .429 with five home runs and a .467 OBP. In both season-long leagues and DFS, he should be started.
  • In case owners weren’t already high on the New York Mets pitching staff, the team faces the Milwaukee Brewers four times next week. The Brewers currently have the second-most strikeouts in baseball (510), while the Mets staff ranks third in ERA (3.20) and seventh in strikeouts (456). Expect Matt Harvey’s turnaround to continue.
  • Here’s a fun statistic for you – currently there are only two pitching staffs that have a collective ERA under 3.00 (the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals). While Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg have received their fair share of praise for having a fantastic start to 2016, Joe Ross and Tanner Roark both have a sub 2.70 ERA over 21 games started. Don’t sleep on the back end of this rotation.

INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK

AWAY TEAMHOME TEAM# GAMESDH?PLAYER(S) IMPACTED
RaysDiamondbacks3No (3)Corey Dickerson
Red SoxGiants2No (2)David Ortiz
MarlinsTwins3Yes (3)Ichiro Suzuki, Chris Johnson
AthleticsBrewers2No (2)Billy Butler
NationalsWhite Sox3Yes (3)Michael Taylor
AthleticsReds3No (3)Billy Butler

Analysis: This week fantasy owners will see a split between games that feature the AL or NL at home for interleague matchups. The Athletics draw the short straw of the bunch, as they lose Billy Butler for five games when they take on the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds. The Tampa Bay Rays are also on the road, but owners should only see Corey Dickerson miss a handful of at-bats. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Michael Taylor of the Washington Nationals will inherit additional at-bats as the squad faces the Chicago White Sox, while Ichiro Suzuki and Chris Johnson will inherit the DH role for the Miami Marlins when they face the Minnesota Twins.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

PITCHERMATCHUP 1RATINGMATCHUP 2RATING 2AVG
Jon Lester@Reds (Morgan)8@Braves (Perez)98.5
Jacob deGrom@Pirates (Nicasio)7.5@Brewers (Davies)87.75
Madison BumgarnerRed Sox (Porcello)7.5Dodgers (Bolsinger)87.75
Steven Matz@Pirates (Niese)6.75@Brewers (Peralta)8.257.5
Cole HamelsAstros (Keuchel)7.25@Mariners (Miley)77.125
Carlos Carrasco@Mariners (Miley)7@Angels (Shoemaker)77
Masahiro TanakaAngels (Santiago)7.25Tigers (Verlander)6.256.75
Chris Archer@Diamondbacks (Ray)6.5Astros (Keuchel)76.75
Adam Conley@Twins (Dean)7@Diamondbacks (Ray)6.256.625
Joe Ross@White Sox (Latos)6.5Phillies (Morgan)6.56.5
Colby LewisAstros (Fiers)6.25@Mariners (Paxton)6.256.25
Robbie RayRays (Archer)5.75Marlins (Conley)6.56.125
Aaron Sanchez@Tigers (Matt Boyd)6Orioles (Jiminez)6.256.125
Mike Leake@Reds (Lamb)6.25@Pirates (Nicasio)66.125
Dallas Keuchel@Rangers (Hamels)6@Rays (Archer)6.256.125
Sean Manaea@Brewers (Davies)6.25@Reds (Lamb)66.125
Michael FulmerBlue Jays (Happ)6@Yankees (Pineda)66
Trevor Bauer@Mariners (Paxton)6@Angels (Sanitago)66
Mike Fiers@Rangers (Lewis)5.75@Rays (Smyly)5.755.75
Matt Shoemaker@Yankees (Pineda)6Indians (Carrasco)5.55.75
Mat LatosNationals (Ross)5.5Royals (Duffy)65.75
Hector Santiago@Yankees (Tanaka)5.5Indians (Bauer)5.55.5
Danny Duffy@Orioles (Wright)5.5@White Sox (Latos)5.55.5
Wade MileyIndians (Carrasco)5.5Rangers (Hamels)5.55.5
Rick Porcello@Giants (Bumgarner)5@Twins (Dean)65.5
Christian FreidrichBraves (Perez)5.5@Rockies (Butler)55.25
Michael PinedaAngels (Shoemaker)5.5Tigers (Fulmer)55.25
Zach DaviesAthletics (Manaea)5.5Mets (deGrom)55.25
Jonathon NieseMets (Matz)5Cardinals (Martinez)5.255.125
J.A. Happ@Tigers (Fulmer)5Orioles (Wright)5.255.125
Adam MorganCubs (Lester)5@Nationals (Ross)55
Mike WrightRoyals (Duffy)5@Blue Jays (Happ)55
James PaxtonIndians (Bauer)5Rangers (Lewis)55
Mike BolsingerRockies (Chatwood)5@Giants (Bumgarner)55
Williams Perez@Padres (Friedrich)5Cubs (Lester)55
Juan NicasioMets (deGrom)5Cardinals (Leake)55
Ubaldo JiminezRoyals (Ventura)5@Blue Jays (Sanchez)55
John LambCardinals (Leake)5Athletics (Manaea)55
Pat DeanMarlins (Conley)5Red Sox (Porcello)55
Eddie Butler@Dodgers (Undecided)5Padres (Friedrich)55

Analysis: I’ll be honest, when I was ranking two-start pitchers this week, there were several cringe-worthy moments while reviewing all of the numbers. The top-tier of starters is fairly straight-forward, between Jon Lester, Jacob deGrom and Madison Bumgarner and Steven Matz. All enjoy starts against at least one subpar offense (while Lester enjoys two with the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves). Outside of those four pitchers, things get very dicey, very fast.

  • Carlos Carrasco makes a triumphant return to our list after being placed on the DL in late April with a hamstring strain. Prior to his leave of absence, Carrasco had been one of the top pitchers in baseball, posting a 2.45 ERA and 0.95 WHIP across 22 innings. He faces off against the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners in Week 10, and while neither is a particularly fantastic matchup on paper (especially against the Mariners, who lead all of MLB in HR with 78), his talent simply is this good.
  • Remember when I said that this was a poor week for two-start pitchers? That explains in part why Adam Conley is ranked ninth overall on my board this week. Don’t get me wrong, Conley has been much better than many experts expected, striking out a batter per inning while posting a sub 3.75 ERA. Conley’s string of strikeouts will continue, as he takes on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Minnesota Twins – both teams rank inside the top eight in whiffs. Don’t expect Conley to last past the sixth inning (he’s only done that twice so far this season), but between the two starts, 15 plus strikeouts is well within reach.
  • Would you have guessed that Colby Lewis registered more quality starts this season than Max Scherzer or Jake Arrieta? He’s been much better than many expected, but the question is, can he keep up this level of success. His 3.09 ERA and 1.11 WHIP are well below his career averages (4.71 and 1.35), so history suggests that this trend is destined to stop, sooner rather than later. That being said, why not exploit it while it lasts?
  • Alright Dallas Keuchel, the time is now to start turning things around. Generally speaking, I give top-tier starters the benefit of the doubt until mid-June before I say enough is enough. Keuchel’s 5.58 ERA and 1.47 WHIP have been one of the biggest surprises of 2016, much to the detriment of his owners. He faces the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays in Week 10, which provides me with a little hope. The good news for his owners? In three of his past four starts he’s allowed three earned runs or less, while going over six innings each time. Fingers crossed.
PITCHERMATCHUP 1RATING
Jake Arrieta@Braves (Wisler)10
Stephen StrasburgPhillies (Hellickson)9
Clayton Kershaw@Giants (Samardzija)9
Chris SaleRoyals (Kennedy)8.5
John Lackey@Phillies (Velasquez)8.25
Noah Syndergaard@Pirates (Liriano)8
Matt Harvey@Brewers (Guerra)8
Jose Fernandez@Diamondbacks (Corbin)8
Rich Hill@Reds (Straily)7.5
Max Scherzer@White Sox (Gonzalez)7.25
Ian Kennedy@White Sox (Sale)7.25
Steven Wright@Twins (Santana)7.25
Jose QuintanaRoyals (Young)7.25
Chris TillmanRoyals (Volquez)7
Danny Salazar@Mariners (Walker)7
Taijuan WalkerIndians (Salazar)7
Gio Gonzalez@White Sox (Rodon)7
Jason Hammel@Braves (Foltynewicz)7
Drew PomeranzBraves (Teheran)6.75
Zach GreinkeRays (Moore)6.75
Julio Teheran@Padres (Pomeranz)6.5
Yu DarvishAstros (Fister)6.5
Kenta MaedaRockies (Rusin)6.5
Gerrit ColeCardinals (Wacha)6.5
Jeff SamardzijaDodgers (Kershaw)6.5
Carlos Martinez@Pirates (Niese)6.5
Kyle Hendricks@Phillies (Eickhoff)6.5
R.A. Dickey@Tigers (Zimmerman)6.25
Nathan EovaldiAngels (Weaver)6.25
Francisco LirianoMets (Syndergaard)6.25
Jaime Garcia@Reds (Simon)6.25
Wei-Yin Chen@Twins (Gibson)6.25
Johnny CuetoRed Sox (Price)6.25
Martin PerezAstros (McHugh)6.25
Bartolo Colon@Brewers (Nelson)6.25
Michael Wacha@Pirates (Cole)6.25
Corey Kluber@Angels (Chacin)6.25
Aaron Nola@Nationals (Roark)6.25
Tanner RoarkPhillies (Nola)6.25
Drew Smyly Astros (Fiers)6.25
Justin Verlander@Yankees (Tanaka)6.25
Scott Kazmir@Giants (Peavy)6.25
Jordan ZimmermanBlue Jays (Dickey)6
Jake Odorizzi@Diamondbacks (Bradley)6
Nick Tropeano@Yankees (Nova)6
Marco EstradaOrioles (Gausman)6
Lance McCullers@Rays (Andriese)6
Chris Young@White Sox (Quintana)6
Eduardo Rodriguez@Twins (Duffey)6
Archie BradleyRays (Odorizzi)5.75
Ivan NovaAngels (Tropeano)5.75
Jeremy Hellickson@Nationals (Strasburg)5.75
Hisashi IwakumaRangers (Holland)5.75
James Shields@Rockies (Chatwood)5.75
Vince VelasquezCubs (Lackey)5.5
David Price@Giants (Cueto)5.5
Adam Wainwright@Reds (Finnegan)5.5
Carlos RodonNationals (Gonzalez)5.5
C.C. SabathiaTigers (Verlander)5.5
Kevin Gausman@Blue Jays (Estrada)5.5
Ervin SanataRed Sox (Wright)5.5
Derek Holland@Mariners (Iwakuma)5.5
Wily PeraltaMets (Matz)5.5
Matt Moore@Diamondbacks (Greinke)5.5
Jered Weaver@Yankees (Eovaldi)5
Edinson Volquez@Orioles (Tillman)5
Alfredo SimonCardinals (Garcia)5
Doug Fister@Rangers (Darvish)5
Miguel GonzalezNationals (Scherzer)5
Jesse Hahn@Brewers (Anderson)5
Chase AndersonAthletics (Hahn)5
Kyle GibsonMarlins (Chen)5
Chris Rusin@Dodgers (Maeda)5
Collin McHugh@Rangers (Perez)5
Jeff Locke@Rockies (Bettis)5
Chad BettisPirates (Locke)5
Tyler Wilson@Blue Jays (Stroman)5
Marcus StromanOrioles (Wilson)5
Brandon FinneganCardinals (Wainwright)5
Jimmy NelsonMets (Colon)5
Tom Koehler@Twins (Nolasco)5
Ricky NolascoMarlins (Koehler)5
Josh Tomlin@Mariners (Karns)5
Nathan KarnsIndians (Tomlin)5
Mike Pelfrey@Yankees (Sabathia)5
Dan StrailyAthletics (Hill)5
Matt AndrieseAstros (McCullers)5
Junior GuerraMets (Harvey)5
Andrew Cashner@Rockies (Gray)5
Jon GrayPadres (Cashner)5
Justin Nicolino@Diamondbacks (Escobar)5
Edwin EscobarMarlins (Nicolino)5
Jhoulys ChacinIndians (Kluber)5
Tyler DuffeyRed Sox (Rodriguez)5
Matt WislerCubs (Arrieta)5
Kendall Graveman@Reds (Moscot)5
Jon MoscotAthletics (Graveman)5
Tyler ChatwoodPadres (Shields)5
Jake PeavyDodgers (Kazmir)5
Jerad EickhoffCubs (Hendricks)5
Mike FoltynewiczCubs (Hammel)4

Analysis: Since the two-start pitching pool was so thin this week, you can likely guess what happened with the single-start matchups. Arrieta, Strasburg, Kershaw, Sale, Lackey and Syndergaard top this list, much to no one’s surprise.

  • I recently joined fellow Fantasy Alarm colleague Joe Pisapia and spoke about my thoughts on Red Sox hurler Steven Wright. Bottom line? I still don’t trust knuckleball pitchers, given how streaky they are. That aside, Wright has been fantastic to start 2016, and takes on the Minnesota Twins, who are currently without their best hitter in Miguel Sano. This string of strong starts will continue.
  • One of the matchups which I’m really looking forward to next week comes on Friday night, pitting Clayton Kershaw and Jeff Samardzija against each other. While I don’t have to go into details about how great Kershaw has been, Samardzija has been a strong compliment to Madison Bumgarner through the early going. The Dodgers rank outside the top 10 in runs scored, and outside the top 20 in AVG and OBP. This could be decided by the bullpens.
  • I discussed Nathan Eovaldi as one of my deep sleepers entering the season, and I hope that our subscribers picked him up! His splitter has continued to improve, and he has maintained a K/9 of close to 9, while his ground ball rate has increased to 54.3 percent. His xFIP suggests that his ERA should be hovering around 3.30 or so, better than his current 3.71 mark. If he remains unowned in a 12-team mixed format, he needs to be added.