Fantasy Baseball Daily Trends: Mazara, Kepler, Smith

DFS DIAMONDS

*The follow list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays. He will try to avoid the obvious, so you will rarely see the stars of the world listed.

CATCHER: Wilson Ramos hits an average of 19 homers per 500 at-bats against righties. He’s facing Bud Norris who he has hit a homer with a .375 batting average against over 25 at-bats. Norris also allowed 1.63 homers per nine last season.

FIRST BASE: Joe Mauer has hit .345 with a .939 OPS over 31 plate appearances against Jose Quintana. Through 20 at-bats this season he’s batting .400 and he is also the owner of a .519 OBP through six games.

SECOND BASE: Brandon Phillips is 5-for10 the last three games with three runs scored and three RBI. He’s also hit .417 over 12 at-bats against Jon Lester. Last season he hit .303 against lefties with a .338 OBP.

THIRD BASE: Adrian Beltre has a .308/.341/.564 slash line over 41 plate appearances against Hisashi Iwakuma. Beltre has a hit in five of six games this season with three doubles his last two outings.

SHORTSTOP: Xander Bogaerts hit .304 against righties last season with 69 RBI in 457 at-bats. He also lit pitchers up at home hitting .347 with a .846 OPS at Fenway. He faces Yovani Gallardo in Boston.

OUTFIELD: Matt Joyce has a decent .252/.348/.446 slash line versus righties in his career. He’s also hit well in limited work against Justin Verlander who he’s gone deep against twice while posting a 1.186 OPS over 19 plate appearances.

OUTFIELD: Justin Upton has scored seven times while hitting .346 with a .414 OBP against Jon Niese in 29 plate appearances. Upton has a strong .379 OBP against lefties in his career with a similarly strong .505 SLG.

OUTFIELD: Mark Trumbo has hit 47 homers in 757 at-bats in his career against lefties. He has a strong .510 SLG against them as well. In the matchup with David Price the Orioles 1B/OF has a .368 average and a homer in 19 at-bats. He’s also hitting .474 on the young season.

ROOKIE CALL UPS

Three huge prospects, all outfielders, are set to make their mark as all three were called up to the big leagues over the weekend. Let’s break them all down.

• SCOUTING GRADES on the 20-80 scale and taken from MLB.com (you can find more of a breakdown of what the numbers mean here. Note that as a rough guide: 45 average, 55 better than average, 60 borderline all-star, 65+ Perennial all-star).

Max Kepler, Twins, OF

MLB Preseason Prospect Rankings: Baseball America (30^th), Baseball Prospectus (60^th),MLB.com (43^rd),

Scouting Report: Kepler is 6’4”, 205 pounds and is 23 years old. He throws and bats left-handed.

Kepler was the Southern League MVP last season as things started to come together for the talented lefty. Kepler has a bit too much length in his swing at times, i.e. his swing can get a little bit long, but he is a very impressive athlete. Moreover, Kepler struck out just 63 times last season in 112 games at Double-A, a solid number, but more impressively he actually walked more times than he struck out with 67 free passes. Gotta love that. He does show an upper level ability to put the barrel on the ball though, a legitimate skill that most of the top end talents possess. At this point he’s not a home run bat preferring to spray the ball around the field as he hit only nine home runs last season (he did hit 32 doubles and 13 triples last season in just 112 games at Double-A furthering that line of thought). He also stole 19 bases last season as he finally showed some aptitude at stealing bases after swiping just nine bags the previous two seasons.

Playing Time: Danny Santana was placed on the DL allowing Kepler to be promoted. If Kepler hits he could carve out a full-season role with the Twins cause it’s not like Santana is an elite talent or anything. Still, the Twins have Byron Buxton, Miguel Sanoe and Eddie Rosario in the outfield right now, and though there are struggles there in the early going, it’s not at all clear that Kepler will be playing daily in the short-term. Would the Twins really go with a Kepler-Buxton-Sano outfield? Doesn’t sound like it, at least not now according to manager Paul Molitor. "We're going to try to get an opportunity to get a little bit of playing time for Kepler, but in reality, he'll potentially be a defensive replacement," Molitor said. "He's a good baserunner. Just trying to find the right time to give him an opportunity to contribute. But there's no question I'll be using him late in games for defensive situations."

Comparison: Kevin Pillar

Nomar Mazara, Rangers, OF

MLB Preseason Prospect Rankings: Baseball America (87^th), Baseball Prospectus (40^th), MLB.com (54^th)

Scouting Report: Mazara is 6’4”, 200 pounds and will be 21 years old later this month. He throws and bats left-handed.

Mazara is the youngest player in the big leagues, he doesn’t turn 21 for a couple of weeks yet. Mazara has legitimate 25 homer power, perhaps more, and things have really started to come together as he changed his movement at the dish. "Mazara has exceeded our expectations," said Rangers farm director Mike Daly, the club's international scouting director when Mazara signed, during Spring Training. "We thought he'd be more power than bat. He started doing a toe tap, and it allowed him to stay on the ball more. He's got the right mentality: never too high, never too low, so consistent." Mazara cut down his massive stride for the toe tap he now employs and that has really helped. He started to cut his strikeout rate and things have even improved to the point that it appears he has a plan each time he enters the batter’s box. He uses the whole field and isn’t afraid to take what a pitcher gives him as he allows his easy power to come to the fore.

Playing Time: Mazara went deep in his first outing this season, a great start to his big league career, and with his pedigree/talent he’s likely to keep on starting if he hits. However, if he slumps/struggles at all, it’s not like that the Rangers don’t have options. In 4-6 weeks Shin-Soo Choo will return and re-enter the starting lineup. Have to think that Delino DeShields will continue to man center field. That will leave Mazara to battle the likes of Josh Hamilton and potentially Joey Gallo for starts in the outfield. There’s also a chance that Lewis Brinson will be called up to battle for at-bats as well.

Comparison: Actually, Shin-Soo Choo ain’t a bad comp. Possibly a bit more power.

Mallex Smith, Braves, OF

MLB Preseason Prospect Rankings: Not ranked in top-100

Scouting Report: Smith is 5’9”, 170 pounds and will be 23 years old in May. He throws right-handed but bats left-handed.

Unlike other players with his skill set – I’m looking right at you Billy Hamilton – Smith knows who he is and he plays to those talents. What the means is that you will see a lot of ground balls and line drives from Smith as he tries to limit hitting the ball in the air. Smith has an 80 on the speed scale, that’s as elite as you can get, and his steals totals the last three seasons include efforts of 64, 88 and 56 thefts. Yeah, he’s a burner. More than just a fast guy, Smith understands the strike zone, has strong pitch recognition and knows his job is to get on base. Just look at his work through 393 minor league games as he’s hit .295 with a .380 OBP and .387 SLG. Get on base, run fast, score runs. That’s who Mallex is.

Playing Time: Ender Inciarte is going to miss a couple of weeks with a hamstring strain. Sounds like he could be back in action in 2-3 weeks. "They are trying to keep me healthy. We all know right now I can't help the team. So I'd rather be recovering and do what I have to do." When healthy, Inciarte is going to start. The club also has OBP machine Nick Markakis starting in the outfield. The Braves also want to use Hector Olivera in left field. That would mark Smith as the 4^th outfielder if everyone is healthy. Smith has the skills to pull a Jarrod Dyson and steal 30 bags in a support role, but it’s an open question as to whether or not the Braves would keep him around in a support role if he wasn’t starting.

NOTE: With the legal issues off the field of Hector Olivera, it's quite possible that Smith will be able to start for a good chunk of time to establish his bona fides this season. 

Comparison: Michael Bourn

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).