CARDINALS OUTFIELD
Things haven’t exactly gone to plan for the Cardinals, but let’s take a look at what is going on here.
Randal Grichuk socked 17 homers last season with a .877 OPS. This season he’s struggled hitting .179 with a .620 OPS. Terrible. But let’s be clear here. (1) Grichuk has a 10.2 percent walk rate this season, well above the 6.3 percent mark he posted last season. (2) His K-rate is 27.3 percent this season. Last year the mark was 31.4 percent. More walks, fewer strikeouts. Gotta like that. The big issue is weak contact (12.7 percent line drive rate). Oddly, his contract rate of 71.7 percent on swings is two percentage points higher than last season (his swinging strike rate is down 2.4 percent this year as well). The line drive rate will fly upwards, it simply has to. Pretty likely a guy who owns a .329 career BABIP mark will also see the rate increase from the .212 mark he currently owns.
Jeremy Hazelbaker has continued to produce with a .313 batting average and 1.024 OPS. The numbers impress… on the surface. Jeremy has only walked five times in 24 games, a poor mark, but guys can have success doing that. The real issue appears to be that Hazelbaker is a whiff machine as he’s currently saddled with 23 punchouts leading to an abysmal 31.9 K-rate. What the means is that he is at the mercy of his BABIP which currently sits at an unsustainable .395 rate. As preposterous as the BABIP rate is, check out his absurd HR/FB ratio of… 45.5 percent. He will be extremely lucky if he were able to post a mark 1/3 that over the course of the season. There’s a big fall coming, and in fact it has already started as he’s batting .214 with a .267 OBP over his last 16 games.
Matt Holliday is the stable, veteran of the group. He’s hitting just .256 in the early going with three home runs though. His walk rate is down a bit, though so is his strikeout rate, with the result being his 0.62 BB/K ratio, a hundredth over his career mark. He really hasn’t hit his stride yet but he will be in the lineup every day. He also, and remember he’s not operating at full strength yet, the owner of a .841 OPS. That OPS mark is .010 points better than Nelson Cruz and just .006 points behind Chris Davis. Holliday will play daily, and he will be productive.
Tommy Pham is still working his way back from an oblique issue. He hit .268 last season with a .824 OPS over 52 games. He’s a support player.
Stephen Piscotty Hit .305 last season with a .359 OBP. This season he’s batting .284 with a .352 OBP. I left out that his SLG is a percentage point higher this season than last year. Pretty much the exact same fella, is he not? Over the course of 361 plate appearances he’s hit .299 with 11 homers and 54 RBI. Smallish sample size that makes it hard to consider his .367 career BABIP as legit. That is a massive number. He also has pretty substantial splits with righties (.286/.337/.472) and lefties (.342/.420/.566). He’s been elite against lefties and just really good against righties.
To sum up.
Holliday will play every day, in the outfield (18 games) or first base (four games).
That basically means we have just two outfield spots to consider for four guys.
Piscotty has done nothing to deserve not being in the lineup. Maybe you sit him against some righties, but as you noted above, his slash line certainly doesn’t suggest you have to (not close).
Grichuk stinks right now. Still, he’s more talented than Hazelbaker. Grichuk also has the best power bat of the entire group as he’s the only one with 25 homer potential. I would expect Hazelbaker to see continued work until he slows completely (BABIP and HR/FB) at which time Grichuk just has to grab the majority of starts out there in centerfield.
Seems to me that Holliday, Grichuk, Piscotty has to be the trio that this team ultimately rolls with. Doesn’t it?
HARDY DOWN, AGAIN
J.J. Hardy is out again, this time with a foot issue (a hairline fracture), and he is likely to miss 6-8 weeks. The 33 year old shortstop has devolved into a total mess. He was hitting a mere .244 with a .291 OBP for the Orioles, though he was at least bringing the leather defensively.
What will the Orioles do? They have options.
Jonathan Schoop will continue to handle second base.
Ryan Flaherty will return to the action roster for the Orioles tomorrow. Flaherty can play shortstop, he’s done so 54 times, though he has actually played third base more (77 times). Ideally he plays second base (179 times) which he won’t be doing now.
Paul Janish will be promoted once he returns from the paternity list. Janish cannot hit. But, he does have a nice glove. He’s played second 22 times and third 57 times, but its shortstop where he’s most likely to help a team as he’s played there 357 times.
Those two are dreadful options with the bat. Still, one of them will likely need to be in the lineup on a regular basis until Hardy returns.
Manny Machado, in about the only positive development with this whole story, could return to shortstop action which is exciting in the fantasy game. We might even see Pedro Alvarez returns to third base which would certainly boost his value as well. Check your league rules as many providers use five or 10 game in-season qualifiers to pick up a new defensive position.
DFS DIAMONDS
*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.
CATCHER: Carlos Ruiz has six hits in 16 at-bats against Adam Wainwright with a .921 OPS. Ruiz has scored a run in each of his last five games and he’s driven in a run in 4-of-5 games.
FIRST BASE: Anthony Rizzo has a hit in 5-straight games and in that time he’s scored four times with seven RBI. He’s also gone deep five times his last nine games. He’s batting .353 against Gerrit Cole.
SECOND BASE: Daniel Murphy is 6-for-15 against Edinson Volquez leading to a .967 OPS. He has a hit in seven of eight games as well with an RBI in each of his last three outings.
THIRD BASE: Nolan Arenado is obvious as arguably the best third baseman in baseball. Arenado takes that act to another level when James Shields is on the bump as he’s hit .522 with four homers in just 23 at-bats.
SHORTSTOP: Jonathan Villar has a .368 OBP against righties this season. He’s also stolen four bags against them. Meanwhile Jered Weaver has a 1.41 WHIP and batters are hitting .286 against him.
OUTFIELD: Seth Smith is batting .333 with two homers and six runs scored his last six games. He also has a .462 OBP in that time. He faces righty Kendall Graveman and he always rips them up.
OUTFIELD: Ian Desmond has certainly found his grove with a homer, a steal, five RBI and seven runs scored over six games. He’s also batting .364 with a .417 OBP and .591 SLG. He takes on knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.
OUTFIELD: Josh Reddick is batting .290 with a .375 OBP and .522 SLG against righties. He’s also hit four doubles with four homers. He’s pitted against righty Nathan Karns Monday night.
DAILY DOSE
Check out my videos each day. Here is a link to the Daily Dive which breaks down the strong Sunday efforts of Madison Bumgarner, Chris Carter and Eric Hosmer.