Fantasy Baseball Daily Trends: July 1, 2016

BOUR BLASTING

Justin Bour has hit four big flies his last six games. In that time, he’s also driven in 12 runs. With that tremendous week Bour has upped his season long marks to 15 homers, 46 RBI and 30 runs scored. Truth be told, before the last week, Bour was just a guy. Now he’s batting .269 with a .347 OBP and .534 SLG. The first two numbers are solid. The last number is impressive.

Over his last 617 at-bats he’s hit 38 homers and driven in 119 RBI. Those are Edwin Encarnacion numbers. The power comes with no speed, and he is a .266 career batter, so he’s not helping you there. He’s also still not able to hit left-handed pitching. In 22 at-bats this season he’s hitting .227 with a .500 OPS against portsiders. Over 102 career plate appearances against lefties his .221/.275/.284 slash line makes him look like Travis Ishikawa. He mashes righties, a .924 OPS this season and .857 for his career, but he really needs to be used in a league where you have the ability to set your lineup on a weekly basis. If you’re in a set it once and go format think long and hard about the matchups that week cause Bour is useless against lefties.

NO LET UP FROM DESMOND

Ian Desmond has 14 homers and 14 steals putting him on the cusp of a 30/30 pace, this after he hit 19 homers with 13 steals last season in 156 games (he’s appeared in 79 this season). He’s also on pace to best his career-high total of 91 RBI (he has 51). He’s on pace to obliterated his 77 run career best as he’s already crossed home plate 59 times. All of that is amazing. However, the most amazing part of his performance might be his batting average. After batting .255 and .233 the last two seasons he has hit .318 this season for the Rangers. Come on, you know that’s not going to continue.

Desmond has a 23.5 percent K-rate, a 3-year best. I like that.

Desmond has a .388 BABIP. The mark has never been above .336 before.

Desmond has a 23.7 percent line drive rate. That would only be his second season above 18 percent in eight years.

Desmond has a 1.77 GB/FB ratio. That would be a career-high.

Desmond has a 21.9 percent HR/FB ratio. The mark is 13.8 percent for his career.

He’s been great, but everything speaks to a slowdown in the second half. Let’s hope it’s a soft landing and not a crash upon landing.

WHO IS JACKIE BRADLEY?

Here we go again.

Jackie Bradley Jr’s nickname should be – the yo-yo.

Check out his month OPS marks the last two and a half years.

Do you really think you have any understanding of who Bradley Is? Look at those numbers again. Up and down is just the name of the game with this slick fielding outfielder. If you think you really know who Bradley is, will you please let me know?

By the way, in 24 June contests Bradley hit .218 with a .333 OBP. He also struck out 25 times.

OH MR. COZART

Zack Cozart is on pace to hit 22 homers with 65 RBI and 85 runs scored. He’s also batting .263 with a .781 OPS. Here are his career bests: 15 homers, 63 RBI, 74 runs, .258 average and .687 OPS. Yep, he’s having one hell of a season given the expectations coming into the campaign. Alas, the bottom is falling out. Over his last eight games he’s hit .118 with no homers. Going back further, he’s hit .210 with a .303 OBP and .419 SLG in June. He still has five homers, 14 RBI and 17 runs scored, impressive numbers, but that average and OBP were terrible in June. Over his last 35 games his average is .202 and his OBP is .299. He’s an extremely flawed player, period. He has never hit .263 before, has no speed and he isn’t at all likely to keep up his current pace in the counting categories. If you’re still holding on you’re a pretty brave soul.

DECLINING PRODUCTION IN TORONTO

Michael Saunders has blown away all expectations. He current is on pace for 30 homers, is batting .289 and has a .915 OPS, the 7^th best mark in the American League. He’s been tremendous. Period. However, he’s starting to crash and burn meaning even those of you that are “believers” should give serious consideration to deal him immediately.

Over his last 16 games Saunders has hit .204 with a .279 OBP. He’s still hit four homers with 11 RBI and a .471 SLG, but the cracks in the foundation are starting to show. The walk rate is slightly below his career mark (by one tenth). The K-rate is slightly up (0.9 percent). His .357 BABIP isn’t sustainable (the previous six years the mark has been .300 one time). His HR/FB ratio is 20.0 percent. His career mark is 12.2 percent. Speaking of homers, though he has four homers in his last 13 games he’s only hit six homers his last 31 outings.

Get out before the inevitable injury hits or the numbers plummet to the point that everyone starts to notice the slow down.

DFS DIAMONDS

*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.

CATCHER: Miguel Gonzalez has allowed 16 runs, 22 hits and nine walks his last 15.1 innings, hideous work. Meanwhile Evan Gattis has a hit in 5-straight games and has an RBI in four of those games.  

FIRST BASE: Prince Fielder has hit .389 with three homers and seven RBI against Ervin Santana (18 ABs). In his last 10 games overall Fielder has hit two homers, has driven in seven runs, has scored seven times and raised his OPS from .579 to .640.

SECOND BASE: Rougned Odor has two homers in four games and five RBI in six outings. He’s hit a home run every 18.7 at-bats against righties. He faces Ervin Santana who has allowed nie homers his last eight outings.

THIRD BASE: Jhonny Peralta has two hits with an RBI each of his last two games. He’s long blasted Matt Garza with a .459/.474/.676 slash line over 38 plate appearances.    

SHORTSTOP: Daniel Descalso is batting .383 with a .484 OBP and .519 SLG this season for the Rockies. The last two starts he’s produced four RBI. Make sure he’s in there against Bud Norris whom he has hit .381 with a 1.357 OPS against in 26 plate appearances.    
  
OUTFIELD: Alex Gordon has been moved to the leadoff spot with the Royals. He’s produced a hit in each of the last two games. He’s hit .500 with three RBI in 16 at-bats against Jeremy Hellickson.

OUTFIELD: Marcell Ozuna has scored eight runs his last nine games while hitting four home runs. He’s posted a 1.003 OPS at night this season and he’s hit .367 with a homer his last 30 at-bats against Julio Teheran.   

OUTFIELD: Let’s go ant-BvP today. Ryan Braun has a .365/.446/.635 slash line against lefties this season. Rockstar. His last 10 games he has a .425/.465/.750 SLG with two homers and eight RBI against everyone. He’s hit just .192 against Jaime Garcia over his 52 at-bats.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).