For those of you confused by this week’s title, you need to brush up on your Kung Fu and recognize when the student becomes the teacher. Now I’m not saying that I am some great teacher of NFL DFS, but in looking at my recent track record, it would seem that I have a firm grasp on the overall game. I have learned, and hopefully have taught you as well, the difference between playing in cash games versus tournaments, the lineups that work for each, the method for which you choose your players, and, of course, a bit of bankroll management.
If you need a quick summary, it’s as simple as this:
1. Novices should stick to cash games, build smart, safe lineups and build your bankroll.
2. Once you’ve built up a decent bankroll, you can feel good about playing in the tournaments for bigger prizes. Start with the “Single Entry” tournaments to keep a somewhat level playing field and for every tournament you enter, make sure you have a corresponding cash game entered (with a smart, safe lineup) to make up for any potential losses.
3. “Chalk Players” are people who tend to bet on the favorites, so when a player is referred to as ‘chalk’ it tends to mean that they are a safe, productive play and usually with a corresponding price to their expected output. “Darts” are your long shots. They are the low-cost players you believe will massively out-produce their price tag. Brandon Marshall is chalk. Dontrelle Inman is a dart.
4. When building your cash game lineups, it’s always safest to pay up for at least two wide receivers and one running back (chalk). It is a PPR format and it’s usually easier to bargain hunt for quarterbacks, tight ends and kickers and find success. You don’t want to dig too deep, so if you use the most-expensive receiver on the board, tier-down your next two guys accordingly to leave you with a decent amount of money for your remaining guys. The fewer darts you throw, the better off you’ll be. Given the prices, it’s not bad to pay up for a solid defense either.
5. When building a tournament (GPP) lineup, you can think of it almost as a stars and scrubs method. You have to pay up for a few guys, but when you’re looking for darts, you want guys who will not only produce at a high level, but also have low ownership percentages. Now the ownership percentages aren’t do-or-die, so don’t get hung up on trying to find a complete unknown. Be sensible with your low end choices. Look for guys who seem to have a favorable situation whether it’s a super-soft match-up or an injury that bumps him up the depth chart. Devin Funchess, two weeks ago, was the perfect example. He has strong talent, Corey Brown (of Philly Brown as many refer to him) was out with an injury and Cam Newton was low on targets. That’s a dart. This week, I’m looking at Keshawn Martin as a decent dart. Danny Amendola is unlikely to be 100-percent and Rob Gronkowski may miss the game which means Tom Brady has Brandon LaFell, Scott Chandler, a banged-up Amendola and who…? Exactly. That’s how you dig.
So there you go. Five easy steps? Relatively speaking, I suppose. But that’s what I’ve taken from this game. Now obviously, if you have a much bigger bankroll and can afford to play a multitude of lineups in GPPs, then things may unfold for you a little easier. I’m talking to the everyman – either the complete noob who is just enamored with making money for the least physically taxing work or the guy like me who has a wife, a household budget and little money with which to play around. There’s nothing wrong with starting small and building from there. It’s like starting a job in the mail room and ending up the CEO.
Now as for my play this week, I did things a little differently. With three games Thursday, I decided to do the FanDuel Gravy Bomb ($25 entry) as my tournament and then use the bigger slate Sunday for my cash games. With a slate that small for a tournament, there was going to be plenty of overlap, so my thoughts turned away from ownership percentages and I got to approach it more like setting a cash game lineup and went with the guys I simply thought would do best. How did it turn out? Well, you can’t name a tournament Gravy Bomb and not expect a guy with the nickname Gravy Boat to cash, people. It certainly wasn’t the big money, but $125 ain’t nothing to thumb your nose at, amirite?
Here’s the lineup:
Matthew Stafford, QB – I was originally leaning Aaron Rodgers on Brett Favre Night, but when I learned a monsoon was hitting Green Bay, I crossed him off the list. And while it was wrong for me in other areas (I’ll explain in a bit) to listen to the numerous pundits claiming that this could be the day Carolina loses, I stayed away from Cam Newton. Stafford’s home/away splits significantly favor his home starts and against an Eagles team I think is a hot mess, I anticipated a strong day.
Eddie Lacy, RB – In a slop-fest game, the running backs always get the extra touches and many seem to find a way to step up. Lacy was coming off his best game and you knew that chubby bastard was looking for a strong follow-up.
Jonathan Stewart, RB – I almost went Theo Riddick here as a GPP dart, but I opted to play it safe and go with the seemingly reliable Stewart. Sure, he gets his goal-line work poached by Cam, but the prospect of 20 touches tilted me towards him with some hope that he would break one for a TD.
Calvin Johnson, WR – Well, if you’re going to put that much faith in Stafford, why wouldn’t you pair him with Megatron?
Randall Cobb, WR – While the rain was going to continue throughout the game, Rodgers certainly wasn’t going to hand the ball off 62 times. I figured with the bad weather, a short pass attack would suit the Packers best and no one moves the chains like Cobb can. Sometimes.
Terrance Williams, WR – I suppose you could call this a dart for the slate. With Josh Norman blanketing Dez Bryant all day, Williams was going to be the guy who would benefit the most. Unfortunately, Romo wasn’t entirely healthy to start the day and then left early with an additional fracture in his already busted-up collarbone.
Greg Olsen, TE – You don’t get much chalkier than Olsen, do you? He’s the No. 1 target for Newton and even if Dallas was going to win, Olsen was sure to still get his, no? Not really.
Graham Gano, K – He’s super-reliable, the weather was nice and if this was the week the Panthers were stopped, well, they’d still have a number of field goals to kick.
Detroit Lions, DEF – Here’s where listening to too many “experts” gets you in trouble. Once one person said this was the week the Panthers would lose their perfect season, far too many piled on and like an idiot, I second-guessed myself and made a last-minute switch from the Panthers defense to that of the Lions. Whoops. The Lions weren’t terrible, by any means, but the Panthers had the defensive touchdowns I needed to earn a little more.
Still, it was a great way to spend Thanksgiving as I stuffed my fat face with more food than most third-world nations consume in a decade, watched football and earned a few bucks while doing it. Ain’t nothing wrong with that!
As for my cash game lineup, I entered into a couple of 50/50’s and Double-Ups, but still kept it reasonable. I wanted to bust out and make it rain at Club FanDuel with my $125, but opted to play it safe and stick to the low-stakes table. And it’s a good thing I did, because while this lineup cashed, it was a “by the skin of my teeth” type of win.
Here’s the lineup:
Carson Palmer, QB – The 49ers are atrocious and I didn’t even think about the fact that the Cardinals, coming off a big win, would look past this match-up and phone it in. Sure, they won, but the effort, in my opinion, was a bit lackluster.
T.J. Yeldon, RB – I took a little chance here as Yeldon hasn’t found the end zone in some time and doesn’t exactly rack up big yardage totals. But he was facing the Chargers and their horrible run defense which had given up 15 touchdowns on the ground, heading in.
Chris Ivory, RB – Given how he tore up the Dolphins earlier in the season and the fact that the Jets don’t win unless he gets 20 carries, I thought they’d run hard on Miami. Relying on a late-game garbage touchdown isn’t my cup of tea, but you take what you can get.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR – Well if you’re going to put your faith in Palmer like that, why wouldn’t you pair him with Fitzgerald?
Odell Beckham, WR – Some like Julio Jones. I like Odell. He’s the top receiver on the board, in my opinion, and with a soft match-up against the Redskins, this was a no-brainer play for me.
Brandin Cooks, TE – This one had all the earmarks of being a shootout and even if the Saints found themselves oin the losing end, Cooks would certainly see enough work to make him a strong value play. Or so I thought.
Jordan Reed, TE – He’s a favorite target for Kirk Cousins and the Giants have allowed the most points to tight ends this season. For me, he was a safe pick and practically a no-brainer.
Nick Novak, K – Didn’t want to pay up for a kicker and thought he’s see a boatload of opportunities in this one.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, DEF – Didn’t have much money to play with and I didn’t want to downgrade anywhere else. They had been underrated recently and were turning out strong performances. Another whoops.
But while not everyone panned out, I still managed to stay in the top half of my cash games. To say that Week 12 was a success is, in truth, a bit of an understatement. I killed it on the tournament play and even with a few unnecessary risks (yes, Yeldon and the Bucs D were unnecessary risks), I found success in my cash games. It might just be time for the grasshopper to leave the temple.
And on that note, I leave you with this inside look at me on Thanksgiving...