So close, yet so far away….
By that opening line, you already know that the bad news is that I failed to cash in on this week’s $2 50/50 bringing my FanDuel net to -$11.00 for the 2015 NFL season. The good news, is that I was close. So close. So friggin’ close that I again had images of dancing dollar signs and a hearty handshake from Mr. Monopoly running through my head. But if the world of NFL DFS is a long, dark tunnel for beginners, I finally see, after just three weeks, a light at the end. Not a light so bright that the afterlife is calling me, but bright enough to know that with the knowledge I have gleaned through these first few weeks and the data that has now been gathered, I can assure you that I will cash in next week.
Before I reveal the lineup I used this past week, allow me to share a few things I’ve learned which led me to my selections.
1. Just like in season-long leagues, you can get by just fine going bargain-hunting for a quarterback. Even a mediocre QB can have a solid and respectable fantasy day if the match-up is right. Sure, you can pay up for an Aaron Rodgers or a Tom Brady if you are at least 90-percent sure your bargain backs or receivers will hit, but since that’s a pretty risky proposition the safe play seems to point me towards the cheaper quarterbacks.
2. You need a go-to running back. You don’t need to pay up for two, but it seems to be good business to lock down at least one and then study the match-ups to give yourself a cheaper No. 2 who has a strong chance of breaking out.
3. Pay up for at least two wide receivers. You can include the tight end position here if you’re paying up for Rob Gronkowski, but if there are cheaper tight ends with favorable match-ups, I’d much rather grab two high-end wideouts, a cheap third and a bargain tight end than have to bargain shop for two receivers.
4. Defense and kickers matter. More the defense, but if you remember how I got douched in Week 1 when Sebastian Janikowski put up a big zero for me, you’ll understand that you need something out of your kicker. Defenses, though, seem to be big and if you can find a quality defensive unit with a strong match-up for sacks, interceptions and potential defensive (or special teams) touchdowns, you’re golden.
So taking all of that, plus the limited data I had heading into Week 3, here’s the lineup I put together:
I fell just three points shy of the last money slot. Three. And right off the bat, I can look to my choice in kicker and bang my head against the wall a hundred times. Sure, coming into the year, the Bills defense was highly touted, but they gave up some serious points in their first two weeks. The fact that the Dolphins offense sucked the big one and Andrew Franks didn’t do squat (that S.O.B. even missed an extra-point) was hardly a flaw in my thinking, but damn, if I wasn’t super pissed off. Better than being pissed on? Not even.
As for the rest of my lineup, I had some good things working (and maybe some not so good).
Ryan Fitzpatrick – I wasn;t expecting the world from him by any means and for the first half of the game I wanted to just hide in a corner and slit my wrists. The Jets fan in me was kicking myself for actually using a Jet, but in the end, things worked out just fine. Were there better bargains out there like Marcus Mariota and Andy Dalton? Yes, but this wasn’t what hurt me this week.
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Adrian Peterson – I originally had Marshawn Lynch in my lineup, but with the calf issue I wasn’t taking any chances and still had the money to throw in Peterson against a suspect Chargers run defense. Worked out just fine.
Latavius Murray – He was my bargain back with a favorable match-up and it worked out extremely well. I could have gone with Devonta Freeman or Joseph Randle, but Murray seemed to be the more “reliable” full-time back and Cleveland’s run defense has been the worst in the league. Mental note for next week: Melvin Gordon/Danny Woodhead.
Antonio Brown – Coming into the season and into Week 3, he was the No. 1 receiver and was as much of a guarantee for 20-plus points as one could get. The Ben Roethlisberger injury was rough, unpredicatble and cost me, but at least he still put up 16-plus points.
Brandon Marshall – He had a good price and given my thoughts on Fitzpatrick, Marshall seemed to be a good choice. He was no A.J. Green, but still posted a strong day for me.
John Brown – Here was my bargain receiver. I wavered back and forth between him and James Jones. I, like Jeff Mans, thought the defense would be all over Larry Fitzgerald and Brown would be able to shine. I came up short.
Jared Cook – This PIT/STL game caused me all sorts of problems. The Steelers had given up a ton of yards through the air and Cook was easily Nick Foles’ favorite target through the first two weeks. The Steelers also ranked pretty low and had given up an average of 84.1 yards per game to the position. I was going to sneak in with Gary Barnidge who was facing the Raiders (also torched by tight ends through the first two weeks), but I figured Cleveland and Oakland would battle more on the ground than in the air while the Rams would have to air it out to catch up. Whoops. Gotta go with my gut sometimes, I suppose.
Andrew Franks – WTF??? These Dolphins are not as good as I thought they would be. At least not now. Almost any other kicker would have pushed me into the money.
Arizona Cardinals – I didn’t want to pay up for the Seahawks or Texans, so I went with the Cardinals who have a great pass rush and strong corners. Colin Kaepernick is trying to prove himself as a passer this season so mistakes were expected. I may not have cashed in this week, but the Cards defense was money.
So now looking towards next week, there are a few things to note. I will stick with the general framework I used here, but now have more data to determine which match-ups are most favorable. What I do know right now is that even with Jimmy ‘Pickles’ Claussen under center for the Bears, Martellus Bennett has a great shot at being a big ol’ bargain against the Raiders and as I mentioned before, the San Diego running backs are going to get a long, hard look against the Browns.
Here’s a list of players I am already considering for Week 4 based on statistical match-ups:
QB – Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson
RB – Melvin Gordon, Marshawn Lynch, Jonathan Stewart, Latavius Murray, Arian Foster(?)
WR – Randall Cobb, Odell Beckham, A.J. Green, DeAndre Hopkins, Donte Moncrief
TE – Martellus Bennett, Eric Ebron, Jimmy Graham, Kyle Rudolph
Come back Thursday and Friday as I will obviously have more to share about my team once I compare my selections with the Fantasy Alarm DFS Playbook.
Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!