DFS NFL QB Coach: Week 5

Week 5 of the NFL season is here. Check out how Ray Flowers breaks down the landscape of the quarterback position for the week.

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Pace = Second per play run
Defensive DVOA - Lower the number the better the defense
Total Plays = Plays for team with that QB on field
Spread = Point spreads
Vegas O/U = Over/Under

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ELITE OPTIONS

Cam Newton is working his way through the concussion protocol. In two matchups last season with the Bucs he threw for four scores and ran for two while compiling a 121.6 QB Rating. If active, he’s a lock and load QB1, even with concerns about his overall game.

Tom Brady will be making his first start of the season. Watch Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman remind everyone why they have been thought of so fondly for years. Brady steps right back in as a must start in his first game back.

Ben Roethlisberger threw for 300 and five last week. He was an amazing 6-for-7 for 124 yards out of play action against the Chiefs. The Jets have allowed eight scores and picked off just two passes while signal callers are hitting on 71 percent of their passes against Gang Greene.

Derek Carr was broken down in this Big3 Video. He’s been pretty damn good.

Andrew Luck suffered through five dropped passes in Week 4. On the 21 plays in which he was pressured last week his QB Rating was 20.5. The o-line is abysmal. Still, he’s on pace for a 4,500/32 season, so it’s not like he hasn’t been fantasy relevant, struggles and all.

SOLID PLAYS

Philip Rivers ranks 12^th in PFF QB Rating through four weeks. He’s graded out very poorly when under pressure, which has happened on 51 of 155 drop backs this season as he’s completed a mere 51.3 percent of his passes with a 61.7 percent QB Rating. The Raiders have just five sacks this season are being obliterated for 326 passing yards a game.

Eli Manning has one passing score in three games. He’s been picked off three times in two games. The Packers are allowing a huge total of 307 passing yards a contest though they have gotten to the QB for 10 sacks. Sam Shields isn’t practicing early in the week and may not play this week. Pay attention to the health of Clay Matthews and Morgan Burnett who missed the last Packers contest.

Matthew Stafford threw two picks, no scores and just 213 yards last week. This despite the fact that he was pressured on a mere three of 40 drop backs as the o-line played extremely well. The Eagles have yet to allow a passing score in three games while holding opponents to a mere 203 passing yards. Stafford played poorly last week which is a level of concern if the hope is a huge effort this week.

Andy Dalton hit all four of his 20-yard passes last week for 138 yards. When he wasn’t blitzed in Week 4 he hit 16-of-21 passes (76.2 percent). Dalton has thrown for a mere three scores, but he has thrown for at least 296 yards in 3-of-4 games while averaging 309 a game. Take out the 54 pass outing against the Steelers and it’s been 31, 31 and 30 passing attempts per game for Dalton.

Carson Wentz faces the Lions on Detroit, so weather won’t be an issue. The Lions have generated nine sacks, but they have also been brutalized for a 71 percent completion rate, 12 passing scores and just one pick. Wentz checks in at 8^th in the Pro Football Focus QB Rating, largely because he has avoided the mistake.

Kirk Cousins threw for three scores last week and five the last two weeks. He’s also been picked off just twice in three weeks. The Ravens have allowed eight scores but they have picked off five passes which has to be at least a moderate concern for Cousins who can make bad reads from time to time. He was able to keep things under control last week with the short passing game as only five of his 26 aimed passed were in the air more than 10-yards.

RISKY PLAYS

Paxton Lynch seems likely to start over Trevor Siemian. We think. Whether he or Trevor Simian start is unknown as Trevor is day-to-day with a shoulder issue. Lynch used his strong arm effectively against the Bucs hitting 8-of-10 throws for 134 yards on balls thrown between 10-19 yards from scrimmage. Honestly, hard to know at this point. What we do know is that either Denver quarterback will face a Falcons team that has been obliterated for 317 passing yards a game, second most, and 13 passing scores, the most.

Brian Hoyer completed 78 percent of his 36 passes for 302 yards in Week 4. That’s the second best completion rate in team history for a guy with 300 passing yards (Vince Evans was at 82 percent as he threw for 316 yards in 1980). That’s 300-yards and two scores in back-to-back outings for Hoyer with the Colts on the docket. Oddly, the Colts have only allowed five passing scores this season though the one pick is more indicative of the unit’s talent level.

Matt Ryan – who I wrote about last week in Why the Hate for Matt Ryan? – went out an annihilated the Panthers for more than 500 passing yards. When he wasn’t under pressure he was 24-for-28 for 413 yards and four scores. His receivers didn’t drop a single pass. Denver is another challenging opponent and they lead football with 17 sacks and have permitted a mere two passing scores.

Dak Prescott didn’t throw a pick again. He also didn’t toss a pass of 20-yards. He was also only 3-for-7 on passes from 10-19 yards. Simply put, he’s the new Alex Smith. The Bengals have picked off four passes but they have also allowed 10 scores despite holding signal callers to a mere 57.6 completion rate.

Jameis Winston is not getting it done. He’s starting to look shaky inside the pocket, and he continues to take sacks (five in Week 4) and turn the ball over (two interceptions). The Panthers just got crazy whipped by Matt Ryan and clearly are struggling to find their footing. Winston has thrown an average of 44 passes a game, and that volume certainly helps (the backfield is a bit up in the air too with Charles Sims dealing with a knee issue).

QUARTERBACKS TO AVOID

Ryan Tannehill was hideous last week. Remove his 74 yard passing score and it was 14 completions for 115 yards for Ryan. He was under constant pressure, but he also showed no football awareness of what is necessary to be successful under less than ideal circumstances.

Brock Osweiler simply isn’t playing good football (see the Daily Dive Video). He’s making bad decisions, forcing passes and showing a less than ideal ability to handle the pass rush. Brock has three scores and five picks in three games, and he’s been unable to get DeAndre Hopkins going. The Vikes continue to dominate on defense and just shut down the Giants passing attack.

Tyrod Taylor had a 91.5 QB Rating when under no pressure in Week 4 but he posted a 103.8 mark when under pressure. Still, there is no Sammy Watkins to turn to. There is also a Rams defense that has picked off four passes while permitting five passing scores through four games. Taylor has thrown more than 30 passes once, and remove his three score game against the Jets and it’s one score in three games through the air.  

Marcus Mariota is play terrible football. Period. He’s not comfortable in the pocket and he isn’t close to on target with some of his chucks. Even when his pocket is clean he’s doing nothing as he hit just 10-of-21 attempts last week for an atrocious 49.1 QB Rating when not under pressure. He’s regressing, badly.

Case Keenum threw for 261 yards and two scores when he wasn’t pressured last week. The Bills are allowing less than 261  passing yards a week, have allowed only two passing scores, and are coming off a 2-game stretch in which they’ve allowed a total of 18 points.

Cody Kessler hit on 78 percent of his aimed throws last week. The average depth of his targets though was 5.3 yards. That’s flat out pathetic. At least he hit 26-of-29 passes under 10-yards in the air. He only threw seven passes of more than 10-yards. The Patriots will scheme to shut down the run leaving Kessler scrambling to move the ball.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).