DFS NFL QB Coach: Week 4

It's that time of the week as Ray Flowers breaks down all the data you need in order to set your lineup at the quarterback position. Here is a look at the field in Week 4.

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ELITE OPTIONS

Cam Newton took a safety and eight sacks last week. He also threw just a single target to Kelvin Benjamin. He’s hit just 58.3 percent of his passes while being picked off five times. Those 117 rushing yards and two rushing scores make up for the deficiencies through the air.

Andrew Luck is 4^th in the league with 570 passing yards on passes in the air. That means 62.4 percent of his passing yards are on passes in the air (no yards after the catch included). He takes on a Jaguars club that has only allowed 202 passing yards a game but has also permitted six passing scores. Volume is seemingly always Luck’s friend – his total of 124 pass attempts is tied for fourth in the league.

Philip Rivers has thrown away eight passes, the most in football. He’s still completed an impressive 68.7 percent of his passes this season with a 109.5 QB Rating. He’s been nails. The Saints can’t be trusted as a defense through the air even if they’ve allowed just three passing scores. Quarterbacks haven’t been picked while averaging 299 passing yards with an immense 69.7 percent completion rate by the ole Saints.  

Matthew Stafford has the second best QB Rating in football according to Pro Football Focus. Stafford is third in the league with 985 passing yards and has thrown at least 39 passes in each game while being picked off just twice.

SOLID PLAYS

Blake Bortles hit 72 percent of his passes last week when not under pressure. When the Ravens got pressure on him, 20 snaps, his completion percentage sunk to 50.0 percent and he threw two picks. He’s simply not playing well without a clear pocket in front of him and is a turnover machine who is living off garbage time at the moment.

Ben Roethlisberger played a second moderate game, if being kind, in a row. He hit just 12-of-25 passes for 117 yards when he didn’t throw the ball to Antonio Brown. He couldn’t throw the ball at all to the left of the numbers (2-for-10 against the Eagles).  Check out this video about Ben Roethlisberger.  Still, solid cause of volume, the offense and the matchup with the Chiefs and due to the fact that his pass catchers have dropped eight passes, the 4^th most in the game. That can’t continue, can it?

Dak Prescott was super effective yet again when he wasn’t under pressure. On 16 dropbacks he ran one time while completing 12-of-15 passes for 183 yards and a score against the Bears. He has the 9th best adjusted completion percentage when under pressure in all of football. He’s also generated 33 percent of his overall value with his legs this season according to PFF.

Matt Ryan comes in hot with 970 passing yards, seven scores and one pick. He takes on the Panthers who have been beastly against the pass with dour picks while allowing just 183 passing yards an outing. The game is at home in the dome though, and that’s a boost for Ryan.

RISKY PLAYS

Carson Palmer was bad in Week 3, a fact I noted in this Daily Dive Video (nearly the whole team was M.I.A as they were thumped by the Bills). He completed just 14-of-29 passes when under pressure this season. Oddly, his four picks have come when he was not blitzed, so you can’t use that as an excuse for all his struggles. Michael Floyd is dealing with a concussion and that doesn’t help either.

Russell Wilson has an ankle and knee issue (an MCL situation he has vowed to play through). Both his legs are compromised. He looks like Carson Palmer in the pocket as he’s without his trademark athleticism. Wilson is 21^st in the NFL in passing yards, he’s averaging 252 passing yards a game, and has thrown a mere single score in three games while rushing for just 33 yards cause of his injury situation.

Brock Osweiler averaged 12.5 yards per pass his first two games. In Week 3 the number was just 72. He also didn’t hit a pass that was in the air for 20-yards against the Pats. Brock leads the NFL in yards gained per pass, 73.5 percent, meaning his wideouts aren’t helping him with just 26.5 percent of his yards being run after the catch. He continues to make a couple of really poor passes per game.

Alex Smith hit 12-of-12 passes for 162 yards and a score between the hash marks in Week 3. When the pocket was clean he picked apart the Jets going 22-for-25 for 211 yards. Smith did a lot of the work on his own as his o-line was beaten in Week 3. The Steelers have allowed nearly 1,000 yards through three games in the air with only one sack so if only the Chiefs would actually open up their offense… but they won’t.

Jameis Winston is not impressing anyone at the moment. He just isn’t. He’s thrown 50 passes in 2-straight games, and that’s simply not a winnable pace for the Bucs. He seemingly lacks awareness when under pressure and he continues to struggle mightily in that scenario. According to PFF, Winston has passed to the 24^th best, behind Case Keenum, PFF QB Rating. That tells you how spotty Winston has been.

Sam Bradford threw everything near the line of scrimmage with just five passes traveling more than 10-yards in the air in Week 3. He also was just 4-for-10 for 31 yards under pressure. He’s avoided the pick in two games but has still thrown just 59 passes in an offense that won’t open things up. The Giants haven’t picked a pass off this season, but they’ve also allowed just three passing scores.

QUARTERBACKS TO AVOID

Tyrod Taylor wasn’t able to do his thing in Week 3 as he was 2-for-8 on the deep ball (20-yards or more). Taylor has failed to throw for a score in 2-of-3 games, has been picked twice and fumbled twice. He was plagued by three drops in Week 3 but that furthers the position that he can be safely ignored in nearly all formats if Sammy Watkins isn’t on the field.

Ryan Fitzpatrick. Do you need me to explain?

Marcus Mariota cannot get it done while under pressure as he was 3-for-9 when under pressure in Week 3. He’s shown no growth at all this season. When trailing this season he’s thrown 73 passes completing just 60.3 percent of them at 6.14 yards an attempt. He’s just not looking good in any facet of the game. He’s nothing other than a dart throw who is more likely than not let you down. Just looks bad does he.  

Blaine Gabbert stinks. We all know that, right? The Niners are sticking with him for now as the staff doesn't think Colin Kaepernick is ready to start in games as he struggles in practice. Gabbert has hit just 55.2 percent of his passes for three scores with three picks. He’s also thrown for a total of 532 yards in three games. He is terrible.

Brian Hoyer seems likely to start again with Jay Cutler on the shelf with a thumb issue. The Lions have allowed 10 passing scores and have just one pick, but they also have seven sacks and Hoyer is far from much of anything. That’s astute analysis.

Cody Kessler looked like a passable NFL quarterback last week completing 16-of-20 aimed passes under 10-yards. SO what. This team doesn’t offer strong receiving options and it’s not like the Browns are doing to open up the offense. His value takes a bit of a hit as well as Terrelle Pryor clearly could handle a series of plays each week under center.