So far this season, my favorite part of writing the DFS MLB strategy articles has been discussing my strategy ideas with the readers. I really enjoy discussing DFS MLB strategy—most of my article topics so far have come from conversations with my buddy Marty—and it is great getting new ideas or questions I hadn’t thought about yet in the comments of my articles.
Last week in the comments of my article examining unspent money in DFS, C.J. asked how I felt about leaving $1,500 on the table in a DraftKings lineup. One of the factors he mentioned that could lead to such a surplus was playing a handful of platoon guys. His comment lead me to wonder at what point is it worth it to play a good player with a decent matchup over a weaker player with a great matchup? If you leave that much money on the table you are almost certainly passing on some very good hitters. That could be a mistake.
I am pretty the last person who would dismiss cheap platoon guys. After all, I had an entire article in the FantasyAlarm Baseball Draft Guide devoted to part-time players who are studs against righties or lefties. Every time I see Ryan Raburn or Danny Valencia starting against a weak lefty I go into my happy dance.
That being said, at some point talent has to be more important than matchups and ballparks and platoon splits. I really like Will Venable on the road against righties, as I feel his price on most sites is too low for a guy with a career .338 wOBA in those situations. I could easily see playing Venable, Raburn, Danny Valencia and Seth Smith and winding up with a huge surplus. The problem is at that point you are probably playing Venable and Smith over guys like Matt Holliday and Justin Upton who are even better against righties despite lacking the platoon advantage.
If Holliday and Upton are facing Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer then you probably just eat the extra money and hope for the best, which was C.J.’s point. I wouldn’t argue with that, especially on a short slate. After all, as I wrote in that article, I would not spend more money just for the sake of spending it. I would need a good reason.
When it comes down to it, I am worried DFS players are overrating all of the secondary factors that go into fantasy performance while losing sight of the most important one: player talent. Lefty/righty splits, opposing starting pitcher, park factors, recent performance, weather, etc… are all worth considering when putting together your MLB DFS lineup, but for me to play Will Venable over Matt Holliday (price notwithstanding), just about all of those factors would have to be in Venable’s favor.
To put it another way, if I have a chance to start Joey Votto against a weak starting pitcher for a good price, I’m probably doing it. I don’t care if the pitcher is a lefty, Votto is in a slump and the game is in Petco. That is not true; I do care. I just don’t care enough about those other factors to override the most important ones, which are: good hitter, poor pitcher, good price.
Perhaps the hardest skill to master in DFS is knowing how much weight to give to all of the various factors you have to consider. By all means look for every small advantage, just try not to miss the forest for the trees. As always, if you agree, disagree or have any questions, please find me on Twitter or leave a comment below.