Below are stacks to consider for Friday’s 15 game MLB DFS slate.
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota is in Detroit tonight facing Daniel Norris on the hill. Consider the following about Norris:
- Norris has allowed a .390 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season, third worst among today’s probable starters.
- Norris has allowed a .356 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season, also third worst among today’s probable starters.
- Norris has been working out of the pen recently, and in his last four appearances he has as many walks as he does strikeouts along with a 6.43 ERA.
Norris’ struggles against hitters from both sides of the plate makes him very stack-friendly. And obviously his recent struggles make him even more appealing to pick on. The fact that he’s been working out of the pen is also appealing because it means he probably won’t be able to work deep in the game even if he does happen to pitch well. Detroit’s bullpen ranks dead last in ERA since the Break, so Twins will get good matchups at some point in this game even if Norris manages not to suck.
Detroit represents a negative park shift for the Twins, but the weather in Detroit may help mitigate the negative park shift. It will be 80 degrees at game time tonight with high humidity, and heat and humidity help the bat carry.
Minnesota’s best hitters against left-handed pitchers are Brian Dozier (163 wRC+), Byron Buxton (115), Joe Mauer (112), and Robbie Grossman (103).
Arizona Diamondbacks
There was no line in Vegas as of this writing for the Twins game, so it’s not clear exactly how chalky they’ll be tonight, but there’s no doubt the D-Backs are the chalk tonight. Arizona easily has the highest expected run total of the night in Vegas. And it’s not hard to figure out why.
Adam Conley will start for the Marlins tonight, and he owns a 5.96 ERA and 5.78 xFIP in his last five starts. He gives up a ton of contact as he has struck out less than six batters per nine innings in those last five starts. He’s also only averaging five innings per start in his last five, which means Arizona should get to see plenty of Miami’s bullpen that ranks eight worst in ERA and seventh worst in xFIP since the Break.
This game is in Arizona, which is much more hitter-friendly than Miami. The D-Backs offense is a force at home as they rank second in the league in home wOBA, second only to the Rockies.
Arizona’s best hitters against left-handed pitching like Conley are J.D. Martinez (157 wRC+), Paul Goldschmidt (137), Chris Iannetta (135) and A.J. Pollock (118). Going heavy on D-Backs in GPPs probably isn’t the greatest idea since they’re so chalky, but you must have exposure to them in cash. You would also be wise to sprinkle them in your tournament lineups.
Washington Nationals
The Nats are in New York tonight facing the Mets and Robert Gsellman. The Nats inclusion in the stacks article is primarily based on how well they’ve hit Gsellman collectively. Nats currently on the active roster have only combined for 66 PA against Gsellman, but they’ve done serious damage in limited work with a collective .433 wOBA.
Gsellman has a 4.68 xFIP in his last four starts and has struggled wo miss bats with a 5.14 K/9 in that stretch. He also has similar numbers against left- and right-handed hitters this season, which adds to the appeal of stacking against him.
The Nats currently have six hitters on the active roster who have been at least 10 percent better than league average against right-handed pitching this season: Daniel Murphy (136), Anthony Rendon (133), Ryan Zimmerman (129), Adam Lind (122), Trea Turner (119) and Howie Kendrick (111).